The Montreal Alouettes and Hamilton Tiger-Cats face off in Week 9 of CFL action on Saturday. This is the second of three meetings between these teams this season with the Alouettes cruising to a 38-12 victory at Tim Horton's Field in Week 2.
CFL betting lines opened with the Ticats as slim 1-point home favorites for this East Division showdown but the spread has jumped the fence to favor the Als at -2.5. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats on August 5.
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats best odds
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats picks and predictions
This CFL season has once again proven the importance of controlling the line of scrimmage. The Ticats have struggled on both lines with injuries at offensive tackle derailing their blocking on the edge and their defensive line struggling to generate pressure.
Meanwhile, the Als have the highest-graded offensive line in the league according to PFF. Although Montreal's defensive line hasn't been as effective, last week's signing of reigning West Division defensive player of the year Shawn Lemon should pay dividends now that he has a week of practice under his belt.
Not only does Montreal have a significant advantage in the trenches, but it also has a superior quarterback at the helm. Veteran Cody Fajardo is enjoying a bounce-back season after a down year with Saskatchewan in 2022. He ranks fourth in the league in pass efficiency rating (96.2), third in passing yards (1,559), and first in interception rate (1.7%).
The Ticats will have rookie Taylor Powell under center after Bo Levi Mitchell ended up on the IL once again after suffering a leg injury in last Friday's win against Ottawa. Powell threw for 283 yards in his first career start in Week 7 but much of that came in garbage time in a contest that was well out of reach. His average passing depth of 7.3 yards is the lowest in the league among every player that has thrown the ball this year and shows just how much faith they have in the 24-year-old.
Considering that the Als have a pretty clear edge at QB and in the trenches, it's surprising this line opened with the Ticats as faves, especially with Montreal already comfortably defeating them in Hamilton earlier this year. Even with this line moving to favor the Als at -2.5, I'll gladly lay the points.
My best bet: Alouettes -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay
Alouettes -2.5 (-115)
Cody Fajardo Over 259.5 passing yards (-114)
Austin Mack Over 73.5 receiving yards (-114)
Since we're backing the Alouettes to cover, let's go all out by fading a Hamilton defense that surrenders the most points per game in the CFL (28.1).
Fajardo was held in check last week but that was the first time all season that he threw for fewer than 260 yards in a game.
Deep threat wideout Austin Mack was also limited to just three catches for 37 yards, the first time all year that he was held below 70 yards.
Expect a bounce-back performance from Fajardo and Mack against a vulnerable Hamilton secondary that is second-last in the league in opponent pass efficiency rating (99.9), average yards allowed per pass (9.6), and opponent completions of 30+ yards (15).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Ticats at -1 and the Over/Under at 48 and both numbers have seen significant movement with the Alouettes now 2.5-point faves and the total at 45.5.
Montreal is coming off a 25-18 home win against the Stampeders on Sunday. That improved the Als' record to 3-3 straight up and against the spread and they are also 3-3 O/U.
The Ticats are fresh off a 16-12 road victory against the Redblacks. That was the best defensive performance of the season for Hamilton who has allowed at least 29 points to every opponent except Ottawa this year. The Ticats started off the season going 0-3 SU and ATS and but have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games.
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats trend to know
The Alouettes are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings between these East Division foes. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Tiger-Cats.
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, August 5, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Alouettes: Ciante Evans DB (Questionable), Greg Ellingson WR (Questionable), Sean Jamieson OL (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Joel Figueroa LT (Out), Tyrone Riley OT (Out), Casey Sayles DT (Questionable), Bo Levi Mitchell QB (Out), Matthew Shiltz QB (Out), Mason Bennett DE (Questionable).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
