Week 9 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday with a clash between the Toronto Argonauts and Calgary Stampeders. Money has come in on the home side and moved the Calgary spread to -4.5, but my Argonauts vs. Stampeders predictions are going against the line movement.
I break down why with my CFL picks for August 4.
Argonauts vs Stampeders prediction
My best bet
Argonauts +4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Toronto Argonauts may have major issues at quarterback, but it might not matter in this matchup. Even though they're platooning mediocre pivots Cameron Dukes and Nick Arbuckle until Chad Kelly comes back from a suspension, they still have the league's best ground game.
Toronto leads the league with 124.4 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. Star running back Ka'Deem Carey has anchored that rushing attack and he's been able to find holes behind an elite Argos offensive line. He should churn out plenty of yards against a Calgary Stampeders defense that allows a league-high 6.2 yards per rush attempt.
Calgary's defense also ranks dead-last in yards allowed per play (7.13) and sacks (8). That lack of juice in their pass rush will give whoever is under center for Toronto plenty of time to operate.
On the other side of the ball, the Stamps have been wildly inconsistent with Jake Maier at quarterback. The Argos lead the CFL with 18 sacks and boast the highest-graded defensive line in the league per Pro Football Focus. Maier struggles under pressure and he'll face plenty of heat on Sunday.
Another reason to take the Argos with the points is their advantage on special teams. The Boatmen lead the league in punt return average (15.3) and rank second in kickoff return average (25.9), while Calgary allows a league-worst 14.7 yards per punt return while giving up 22.4 yards per kickoff return.
Argonauts vs Stampeders same-game parlay (SGP)
Argonauts +4.5
Ka'Deem Carey Over 69.5 rushing yards
Under 49.5
Carey is second in the league with 491 rushing yards on 91 carries. With the Argos unable to attack vertically, they'll lean on Carey and their ground game against a Calgary defense that struggles against the run.
I'm expecting the Argos to win the battle in the trenches and lean on their defense and rushing attack to keep things close here. That would also suggest a lower-scoring contest due to their lack of a downfield passing attack and the pressure they'll generate against Maier.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Argonauts vs Stampeders odds
Argonauts vs Stampeders live odds
Argonauts vs Stampeders opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +2.5 (-110) | Calgary -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Toronto +150 | Calgary -185
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
Argonauts vs Stampeders spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Stampeders, moving their line past that key number of -2.5 to as high as -4.5.
- Calgary is coming off an ugly 33-6 road loss to Ottawa but was playing on just four days of rest after upsetting BC in Week 7.
- The Argos are fresh off a 16-14 home win against the Bombers, where they passed for just 124 yards and didn't score a single offensive touchdown.
- The Stamps are 3-0 straight up and against the spread at home, but this is the first time they've been favored by more than a point all year.
Argonauts vs Stampeders trend
The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Stampeders.
Argonauts vs Stampeders game info
| Location: | McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-4-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Stampeders key injuries
Argonauts: Wynton McManis LB (Out), Jared Brinkman DT(Out), Quincy Mauger DB(Out), Dejon Brissett WR (Out), Darius Ciraco C, Tommy Nield WR (Out).
Stampeders: Dedrick Mills RB (Questionable), Jalen Philpot WR (Questionable), Zack Williams RG (Out), Malik Henry (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Argonauts vs Stampeders weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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