It's Labour Day weekend in the CFL, which means a clash between rivals as the Hamilton Tiger-Cats host the Toronto Argonauts.
The Ticats have been the worst team in the league, and my Argonauts vs. Tiger-Cats predictions expect those struggles to continue.
Here are my best free CFL picks for this Week 13 showdown.
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats prediction
My best bet
Argonauts -5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats have the worst record in the CFL at 2-9, although one of those victories came against the Toronto Argonauts in Week 7. The Ticats entered the fourth quarter with a 17-point lead in that contest and survived a late rally to win 27-24. That said, I like the Argos in a revenge spot here.
Hamilton is tied for second-last in the CFL in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.3), which is bad news against a Toronto offense that averages 5.3 yards per carry and leads the league with 116.9 rushing yards per game.
Toronto's offense has been limited by its aerial attack but got a massive boost when 2023 CFL Most Outstanding Player Chad Kelly returned from a nine-game suspension last week to throw for 322 yards. The Argos edged the Roughriders 20-19 in that contest, and it should have been a more lopsided victory since they turned the ball over three times on the goal line.
In an effort to spark his team, Hamilton head coach Scott Milanovich benched veteran QB Bo Levi Mitchell for Taylor Powell in Week 10. However, Powell was injured in his first start, so the Ticats went back to Mitchell, who has struggled in the last two games. Mitchell has thrown for a league-high 3,036 yards, but he's been inconsistent and commits far too many turnovers. Hamilton is also the most penalized team in the league, and those sloppy mistakes have held this offense back.
While the Ticats give the ball away a ton and force the fewest turnovers in the league (12), Toronto's stop unit has racked up the second-most takeaways (23). With Kelly back under center, the Argos offense will pick up steam, and their opportunistic defense will force enough turnovers to cover here.
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay (SGP)
Argonauts -4.5
Bo Levi Mitchell Over 285.5 passing yards
Tim White Over 58.5 receiving yards
Although I expect the Argos to cover, I also think Mitchell will put up some big numbers. The former two-time MOP has been racking up many of his yards in garbage when Hamilton has been trailing opponents.
Mitchell should get plenty of opportunities to put up empty yards against an Argos defense that is second-last in the league in opponent completion percentage (71.4%) and third-last in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.42).
Tim White has been under-utilized at times this year, but he hauled in seven of 10 targets for 134 yards last week against Winnipeg. He also had five catches for 66 yards against the Argos in Week 7. The two-time All-Star racked up more than 1,200 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons, and he should see plenty of targets against a vulnerable Toronto secondary.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats odds
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats live odds
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats opening odds
- Spread: Toronto -5 | Hamilton +5
- Moneyline: Toronto -260 | Hamilton +210
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Argos are 6-4 SU but have gone just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Ticats are fresh off a 26-23 loss to Winnipeg, where they covered as 10.5-point dogs. That dropped their record to 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS on the year.
- The Argos are averaging just 222 passing yards per game, but Kelly had the highest passing grade in the league last year per PFF and should fix that.
- The Argos have gone 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings between these rivals.
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats trend
The Tiger-Cats are 1-6-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Tiger-Cats
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 9-2-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Argonauts: Wynton McManis LB (Out), Jared Brinkman DT (Out), Darius Ciraco OL (Out), Dejon Brissett WR (Out), Gregor Mackellar G (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Jamal Peters DB (Questionable), Taylor Powell QB (Out), Joel Figueroa LT (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Argonauts vs Tiger-Cats weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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