The Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Montreal Alouettes face off in the 110th Grey Cup on Sunday. This is the fourth straight Grey Cup for the Bombers who won back-to-back titles before coming up just short last season. Meanwhile, the Alouettes upset the defending champion Argonauts to earn a trip to the title game for the first time since 2010.
CFL odds have the Als as 8-point underdogs with the total at 47 for this clash at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for the Blue Bombers vs. Argonauts in the Grey Cup on November 19.
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes best odds
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes picks and predictions
If you simply look at the numbers and the personnel on both teams, it's easy to think the Winnipeg Blue Bombers will roll here. They finished the regular season with three more wins than the Montreal Alouettes and had the top offense and defense in the CFL (in terms of both scoring and yards).
The Alouettes were a middle-of-the-pack team in most metrics and struggled against the top teams in the league, going 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread vs. the Argonauts, Blue Bombers, and Lions during the regular season before shocking the Argos last week.
However, there are some similarities between this Montreal squad and the Toronto team that upset the Bombers in the Grey Cup last year. The Alouettes have also found their stride at the right time having won seven games in a row (going 6-0-1 ATS in that span) and they are also anchored by a stingy and opportunistic defense.
That defense spearheaded their 38-17 upset victory against the Argonauts with eight takeaways (four interceptions, one fumble, and three turnovers on downs) in the East Finals. Although eight turnovers are clearly a massive outlier and regression is inevitable, Montreal's pass defense should be good enough to slow down Winnipeg's high-octane offense to some extent.
Keep in mind that Montreal had the lowest opponent pass efficiency rating (81.2) and yards allowed per pass attempt (7.6) during the regular season and picked off Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros three times when they previously clashed in Week 12. I'm also expecting fewer points from the Bombers because we could see a more conservative game plan from head coach Mike O'Shea.
O'Shea will likely err on the side of caution to limit mistakes and will try to lean on Winnipeg's ground game and tough defense to grind out another Grey Cup. After all, the Bombers have the league's best running back in Brady Oliveira and they used that combination to great success in the West Finals when they beat the Lions 24-13.
Despite losing star linebacker Adam Bighill to an early injury, the Bombers generated nine sacks and held the Leos to just 189 yards of net offense while Oliveira totaled 124 yards on 23 touches. Winnipeg will get plenty of pressure against a Montreal line that surrendered the second-most sacks (61) in the CFL and Oliveira should be able to control the clock against an Als defense that surrendered a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry.
Winnipeg's defense had a few leaky games this year but still finished the regular season with the fewest touchdowns allowed in the CFL. The Bombers also held Montreal to a total of 20 points in two meetings and they have a history of giving Montreal QB Cody Fajardo a tough time. Since 2019, Fajardo has gone 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS against Winnipeg with three passing touchdowns against 12 interceptions.
Another reason I like the Under to cash is because the weather could hinder downfield passing and field-goal attempts. While we should see clear skies and temperatures above freezing, Tim Hortons Field often feels like a wind tunnel and winds are expected to swirl at around 20 km/h in Hamilton on Sunday. Expect both aerial attacks to be kept in check in this contest and take the Under 47.5 on the game total.
My best bet: Under 47.5 (-115 at 888sport)
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Blue Bombers vs Alouettes same-game parlay
Under 47.5
Double result: Blue Bombers/Blue Bombers
Austin Mack Under 60.5 receiving yards
Zach Collaros Under 270.5 passing yards
While the spread is a bit too large for me to bet on the favourites in what I think will be a low-scoring contest, I do like the Bombers to get out to an early lead and hold on for their third Grey Cup win in four years. The Bombers are loaded at every level on both sides of the ball and have no weakness for Montreal to exploit.
I expect Winnipeg's stop unit to shut down the Alouettes offense and that starts with their best receiver Austin Mack. Mack was fifth in the league with 1,154 receiving yards but hasn't broken the 60-yard plateau in his last seven games. Expect Winnipeg's secondary to focus on stopping Mack and force the Alouettes into using other weapons.
Since I also predict the Bombers will lean on Oliveira to run the ball, it also makes sense to fade Zach Collaros on his passing yards prop. After all, Montreal has the top pass defense in the league, and Collaros' O/U numbers are inflated due to his regular-season play.
In eight playoff starts with the Bombers, Collaros has never thrown for more than 270 yards and he's been held below 200 yards on five occasions — including last week. He was also held well below this number in both meetings against Montreal this season.
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Blue Bombers vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
CFL odds hit the board on Monday with the Bombers installed as 7.5-point favourites and early money came in on them, shifting that line to -8.5 by Wednesday. With buyback coming in on the Alouettes the line moved down to -8 by Saturday. The total opened at 46.5 and has ticked up ever-so-slightly to 47.5.
The Bombers are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games and they are coming off a 24-13 home victory against the BC Lions in the West Final. That snapped an eight-game streak where the Over had cashed for Winnipeg.
The Alouettes beat the Argonauts 38-17 as 10.5-point underdogs last week. They've gone 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games, although Toronto was the only opponent during that span that didn't have a record below .500. With their defense stepping up during the second half of the season, the Under has gone 7-2 in the Alouettes previous nine contests.
These teams faced off in Montreal in Week 4 with the Bombers winning 17-3 in messy weather. They had a rematch in Winnipeg in Week 12 and the Bombers won 47-17 while boasting a 447-201 edge in total yards.
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in Winnipeg's last seven playoff games. Find more CFL betting trends for Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes.
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, November 19, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes key injuries
Blue Bombers: Dalton Schoen WR (Doubtful), Nic Demski WR (Questionable), Rasheed Bailey WR (Questionable), Adam Bighill MLB (Doubtful), Kyrie Wilson LB (Questionable), Alden Darby LB (Out).
Alouettes: Kaion Julien-Grant WR (Doubtful), Pier-Olivier Lestage G (Questionable), Najee Murray DB (Out), J.R. Reed DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
