Week 11 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday with a clash between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and BC Lions. The Leos have swung from +3.5 underdogs to -2.5 favorites following the acquisition of former NFL quarterback Nathan Rourke.
Since we're not getting the best number on the Leos anymore, my Blue Bombers vs. Lions predictions are looking for value on the other side of the ball. Here are my best free CFL picks for August 18.
Blue Bombers vs Lions prediction
My best bet
Blue Bombers team total Over 23.5 (-120 at Bet99)
My analysis
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are fresh off a bye after destroying the BC Lions 25-0 in Week 9. It was a statement win for a Bombers side that many people left for dead after starting the year off 0-4.
Winnipeg's defense limited the Leos to just 129 total yards and four first downs, and the Bombers offense fired on all cylinders. Quarterback Zach Collaros looked like his former MOP self, completing 27-of-33 passes for 295 yards, and Winnipeg churned out another 143 yards on the ground.
All things considered, the Leos were fortunate that the Bombers didn't score more than 25 points, as they ended up settling for six field goals.
Winnipeg's receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, but that's paved the way for rookie Ontaria Wilson to emerge as an elite weapon. Meanwhile, All-Star wideout Kenny Lawler is back in the lineup after missing two months with a broken arm.
The Leos are amid a three-game skid, and their defense has been exposed in each of those defeats. They allowed 307 passing yards and three touchdowns to Jake Maier in Week 7, were shredded by the Bombers in Week 9, and surrendered 467 yards and 33 points to the Elks last week.
This is a Lions defense that ranks dead-last in the league in opponent pass efficiency rating and hasn't been forcing turnovers lately. Winnipeg's offense has a league-high 20 giveaways, but if they take better care of the ball, they'll eclipse their team total.
Blue Bombers vs Lions same-game parlay (SGP)
Blue Bombers team total Over 24.5
Keon Hatcher Over 4.5 receptions
Lions moneyline
Although Rourke only joined the team this week, he's familiar with this system and had multiple practices to get reps in with his receivers. One of those receivers is Keon Hatcher, who compiled 70 catches for 1,043 yards alongside Rourke in 2022. Although Hatcher came off the IL just a few weeks ago, he should see plenty of targets from Rourke due to their already-established chemistry.
I bet the Leos at +105 on the moneyline earlier in the week and I'll gladly add that to this SGP in a revenge spot here. While the Bombers have been playing better in recent weeks, all three of their wins have come at Princess Auto Stadium.
They enjoy the best home-field advantages in the CFL and they're never quite as efficient away from Winnipeg. Even with the Bombers' offense putting up points, they won't be able to keep up with BC's explosive offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Blue Bombers vs Lions odds
Blue Bombers vs Lions live odds
Blue Bombers vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Winnipeg -3.5 (-110) | BC +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Winnipeg -180 | BC +150
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Blue Bombers vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with Winnipeg at -3.5, but after the Rourke bombshell news dropped, the line reopened at -1.5 and has since moved to favor the Leos at -2.5.
- The total has also seen significant action, moving from 46.5 to 48.5 before being steamed to 51.5.
- In 10 games in 2022, Rourke completed 78.7% of his passes for 3,349 yards and 25 TDs with another 304 yards and seven scores on the ground.
- Despite coming into the season as Grey Cup favorites, the Bombers started 0-4 SU and ATS before going 3-2 SU and 2-3 in their last five.
Blue Bombers vs Lions trend
The Bombers are 9-3 SU and ATS in the last 12 meetings between these West Division foes. Find more CFL betting trends for Blue Bombers vs. Lions.
Blue Bombers vs Lions game info
| Location: | BC Place, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-18-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Blue Bombers vs Lions key injuries
Blue Bombers: Dalton Schoen WR (Out), Drew Wolitarsky WR (Out), Patrick Nuefield G (Out), Jamal Parker DB (Out), Cam Lawson DT (Out), Miles Fox DT (Out), Kyrie Wilson LB (Out).
Lions: Vernon Adams Jr QB (Questionable), Ben Hladik LB (Questionable), Josh Woods DB (Out), Chris Schleuger G (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Blue Bombers vs Lions weather
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