Week 5 in the CFL is headlined by a Saturday night clash between the last two unbeaten teams in the league, as the BC Lions host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
It's not often that the two-time defending Grey Cup champion Blue Bombers are underdogs but CFL betting lines opened with the Lions as 4-point home favourites for this contest, before shortening to -3.5.
Here are our best free Blue Bombers vs. Lions picks and predictions for July 8 with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Blue Bombers vs Lions odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
On Tuesday morning, odds for this game hit the board with the Lions installed at -4 on BetRegal but CoolBet had the Bombers installed as 1.5-point favorites. That changed within hours at CoolBet with the line quickly shifting to Lions -3 before settling at -3.5. The total hit the board at 48 and has crept up to 48.5 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Blue Bombers vs Lions Week 5 predictions
Predictions made on 7/8/2022 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Blue Bombers vs Lions game info
• Location: BC Place, Vancouver, BC
• Date: Saturday, July 9, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Blue Bombers at Lions betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Blue Bombers: Jackson Jeffcoat DE (Questionable), Winston Rose DB (Questionable), Pat Neufeld OL (Questionable), Kyrie Wilson LB (Out), Brandon Alexander DB (Out), Nic Demski WR (Out), Michael Couture C (Out), Mercy Maston LB (Out).
Lions: Loucheiz Purifoy DB (Probable), Obum Gwachum DL (Probable), Sean Whyte K (Probable), Lucky Whitehead WR (Questionable), Bryan Burnham WR (Out), Woody Baron DT (Out), David Knevel OG (Out), Steven Richardson DT (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in the Lions' last nine games overall. Find more CFL betting trends for Blue Bombers vs. Lions.
Blue Bombers vs Lions picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
After cruising to back-to-back Grey Cup victories, the Bombers are off to a 4-0 start to the season but they haven't been anywhere near as impressive as last year. Three of their four victories have been razor close (including a 23-22 win against the Argos on Monday) and their only comfortable victory came at home against a 0-4 Tiger-Cats squad.
Winnipeg ranks second-last in the league in yards per game and has suffered from a lack of playmakers after losing three-time CFL rushing leader Andrew Harris and last year's receiving leader Kenny Lawler in the offseason. Injuries to center Michael Couture and slotback Nic Demski have compounded those problems, resulting in the Bombers ranking second-last in the league in yards per game (324) and third-last in yards per play (5.9).
They have also taken a step back on defense after losing several West Division All-Stars from their secondary. Although they've done an excellent job at tightening up in the red zone and forcing turnovers, they're allowing the most passing yards per game (315.5) in the league and rank fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.4).
That's bad news against a Lions offense that has been unstoppable this season. The Lions are leading the league in both rushing and passing yards per game, and their 511.3 ypg of total offense is nearly 125 ypg more than second-place Calgary.
The Lions have also vastly improved on defense, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 209.3 passing yards per game with an efficiency rating of 55.1. The CFL is a passing league and being able to rack up yards through the air and shut down opposing aerial attacks is a formula for success.
The Lions proved that by destroying the Elks and Argos in their first two games of the year. Although their 34-31 victory in Ottawa last Thursday was closer they were also traveling halfway across the country to play on just four days of rest and still outgained the Redblacks 509-253.
Now they'll be well-rested and hosting a Bombers team coming off a short week. Lay the points with the home side.
Prediction: Lions -3.5 (-105 at BetRegal)
Over/Under analysis
First-year starting quarterback Nathan Rourke has been a revelation for BC, completing 84% of his passes for 1,077 yards and nine touchdowns while adding another 180 yards and three scores on the ground. He's been getting plenty of help from a massively improved offensive line that has allowed just two sacks.
The Bombers' defense has been extremely reliant on forcing turnovers to get out of trouble but has shown plenty of cracks. Winnipeg is tied with Hamilton with the most pass completions of 30+ yards allowed, and is sixth in the league in yards per play allowed.
Relying on takeaways to prevent scores is like playing with fire, and the Bombers are going to get burned eventually.
With the Over going 8-1 in the Lions' last nine games and BC playing at a fast pace, I'm expecting this game to go above the total.
Prediction: Over 48 (-112 at CoolBet)
Best bet
On the surface, it seems bizarre to fade the undefeated Grey Cup favorites and defending champs when catching points. But, it's been pretty apparent that the Lions have been the far more impressive team so far this season on both sides of the ball.
Winnipeg has been squeaking by foes while the Lions have been blowing their opponents out of the water, and the numbers reflect that. The Lions are first in the CFL in both yards per play (8.0) and yards per play allowed (5.3), while the Bombers are seventh in yards per play (5.9) and sixth in yards per play allowed (6.4).
Factor in the home-field and rest advantage for the Lions, and they look like the play here.
Pick: Lions -3.5 (-105 at BetRegal)
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