There are a pair of games on the CFL betting board this Saturday, beginning with a clash between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Ottawa Redblacks in the nation's capital. The CFL odds opened with the Bombers as 7.5-point favourites for this Week 6 matchup but the line has quickly moved to -9.5.
The Redblacks are just 1-3 and will turn to rookie quarterback Dustin Crum to try and turn around their season. Should you chase the steam with the road favourite or back Ottawa at home? I let you know with my best free CFL picks and predictions for Blue Bombers vs. Redblacks on July 15.
Blue Bombers vs RedBlacks best odds
Blue Bombers vs RedBlacks picks and predictions
The major storyline for this contest is the Ottawa Redblacks' dire situation at quarterback. After waiting almost a year for top passer Jeremiah Masoli to return from a leg injury, Masoli ruptured his Achilles tendon in his comeback game last week. With Tyrie Adams also done for the year and former starter Nick Arbuckle firmly in the dog house, the Redblacks will turn to Dustin Crum who entered this season as their fourth-string QB.
Crum completed 14-of-21 passes for 149 yards with a pair of interceptions and added another 91 yards on the ground after replacing Masoli last week. He was named the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2021 after passing for 3,187 yards and rushing for another 703 at Kent State.
There are a few reasons to like Crum in this spot: he's a mobile quarterback with a good arm and rookie QBs tend to have success in their first few CFL starts before teams have much tape on them.
However, there are even more reasons to fade him. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have an experienced defense that makes a ton of plays in coverage and gets plenty of pressure on opposing QBs. In addition, there isn't much talent around Crum with the Redblacks having a brutal offensive line and arguably the worst WR corps in the league.
Regardless of who has been under center, the Redblacks have looked miserable on offense scoring just 16.5 points per game while averaging a league-low 5.23 yards per play.
The Redblacks have put up much better numbers on the other side of the ball where they rank second in the league in yards allowed per play (5.87) and scoring defense (18.3 ppg allowed). That said, those numbers are deflated due to playing against some anemic attacks and the best offense they've faced so far this season was the Calgary Stampeders who torched them for 442 yards.
The Bombers have an even better offense than the Stamps with two-time CFL Most Outstanding Player Zach Collaros slinging the ball behind an elite offensive line while Brady Oliveira pounds the ball from the backfield. With that balanced offense and an opportunistic defense that will take advantage of a rookie QB, back the Bombers on the spread.
My best bet: Blue Bombers -9 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blue Bombers vs RedBlacks same-game parlay
Blue Bombers -9.5 (-110)
Under 44.5 (-105)
Brady Oliveira Over 73.5 rush yards (-114)
Winnipeg's defense has looked fantastic in the last two weeks with Jackson Jeffcoat coming off the IL to return to his usual spot at defensive end. With Jeffcoat and Willie Jefferson bringing the heat from the outside and defensive coordinator Richie Hall scheming against a rookie QB, expect a low-scoring contest from the Redblacks. Combine that with a Winnipeg offense that tends to play conservatively with a lead and the Under should be the play as well.
An early lead from the Bombers should also mean plenty of work for Oliveira who rushed for 73 yards on 15 carries last week and has eclipsed 100 rushing yards twice this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Blue Bombers vs RedBlacks spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Bombers favoured by just over a touchdown but the line has since shifted to Winnipeg at -9 or -9.5.
The Blue Bombers were atop the CFL power rankings before getting destroyed by the Lions in Week 3. They have since bounced back with consecutive double-digit victories against the Alouettes and Stampeders.
The Redblacks are 1-3 straight up and ATS to begin the season. Their lone victory came against an Elks team that has yet to win a game this season and they gave the Ticats their first win of the year last week, losing 21-13 in Hamilton.
Despite the swing in the spread, the O/U has stayed steady at 44.5. It's been tough to handicap totals for Winnipeg.
In the Bombers' first two games of the season, they looked unstoppable on offense but vulnerable on defense. After getting demolished on both sides of the ball by the Lions in Week 3 they have dominated on defense in their last two games while averaging a modest 20.5 ppg.
The Redblacks on the other hand have been the best Under team in the CFL. They have cashed the Under in every contest this season with an average of just 34.8 combined ppg scored in those games.
Blue Bombers vs RedBlacks trend to know
The Blue Bombers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record while the RedBlacks are 3-13 ATS in their previous 16 contests versus teams with a winning record. Find more CFL betting trends for Blue Bombers vs. RedBlacks.
Blue Bombers vs RedBlacks game info
| Location: | TD Place Stadium, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, July 15, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Blue Bombers vs RedBlacks key injuries
Blue Bombers: Janarion Grant WR/KR (Questionable), Patrick Neufeld G (Questionable), Nic Demski WR (Questionable), Jackson Jeffcoat DE (Questionable), Jamal Parker DB(Questionable), Redha Kramdi DB (Questionable), Winston Rose DB (Out), Mike Miller FB (Out).
RedBlacks: Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Cariel Brooks DB (Questionable), Cleyon Laing DT (Questionable), Money Hunter DB (Out), Jova Santos-Knox LB (Out), DeVonte Dedmon WR/KR (Out), Tyrie Adams QB (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Shaq Evans WR (Out), Tevaun Smith WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
