The 108th Grey Cup will take place on Sunday, December 12 with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers facing off against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Tim Horton's Field in Hamilton, Ontario.
This is a rematch of the previous Grey Cup contest in 2019 when the Bombers won 33-12 as 4-point underdogs. This time Winnipeg is the favorite with Grey Cup odds opening with the Ti-Cats as 4.5-point home underdogs before shifting to +3.
Here are our best free Blue Bombers vs. Tiger-Cats picks and predictions for the 108th Grey Cup on December 12, with kickoff at 6 p.m. ET.
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats picks
- Prediction: Blue Bombers -3 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 44 (-110)
- Best bet: Dane Evans Under 249.5 passing yards (-120)
Picks made on 12/9/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats game info
• Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Blue Bombers at Tiger-Cats betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Blue Bombers: Andrew Harris RB (Questionable), Jackson Jeffcoat DE (Questionable), Mike Miller FB (Questionable).
Tiger-Cats: Ted Laurent DT (Out), Desmond Lawrence DB (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Lorenzo Mauldin IV DE (Out), Frankie Williams CB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Tiger-Cats' last seven games as an underdog. Find more CFL betting trends for Blue Bombers vs. Tiger-Cats.
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats predictions
Spread analysis
When these teams met up in the Grey Cup two years ago the Bombers ran away with the title, outgaining the Ti-Cats 408-355, controlling the clock for 11 more minutes, boasting a plus-4 turnover differential, and eventually winning by 21 points. These teams also tangled in the season opener with the Bombers winning 19-6 at home while limiting Hamilton to 297 yards of offense and forcing three turnovers.
This was a bizarre start to the CFL season with so much rust for every team due to time away from the field, so I'd put more stock in their Grey Cup matchup even if it took place more than 24 months ago. Both lineups are virtually identical with Dane Evans even back as the Ti-Cats starting QB after backing up Jeremiah Masoli for much of the season.
Evans replaced Masoli in last weekend's East Final against the Argos and led Hamilton to a comeback win, completing all 16 of his pass attempts for 249 yards and a score. That come-from-behind victory was emblematic of Hamilton's season with the Ti-Cats battling through adversity for much of the year and finishing with an 8-6 record before beating the Alouettes 23-12 in the Eastern Semi-finals.
The Ti-Cats had a stingy defense during the regular season, holding opponents to the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (7.3) and fewest yards per rush attempt in the league (4.2). That said, their offense struggled at times with their receivers having a tough time consistently getting open and their offensive line surrendering 40 sacks.
That's bad news against a Winnipeg pass rush led by a pair of All-Star defensive ends in Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat. The Bombers boast one of the best defensive units in CFL history, holding opposing passers to just 6.4 ypa and forcing 27 turnovers while having seven starters named as division All-Stars. Their offense also had seven players selected as All-Stars and that's not including 2019 Grey Cup MVP Andrew Harris who missed half the season with injuries but rushed for 136 yards in Sunday's West Division Final against Saskatchewan.
The Bombers struggled to put away the Riders in that contest, eventually winning 21-17 but failing to cover the 8.5-point spread. However, it was a comedy of errors in the first half for Winnipeg who turned the ball over five times, including twice at the goal line. Bombers QB Zach Collaros who led the league with a 111 passing efficiency during the regular season and threw for 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions, was picked off three times in the opening half — including a perfect touchdown strike to Nic Demski that the normally reliable slotback popped into the air.
The Bombers were nothing short of dominant this year. They went 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS with an average scoring margin of plus-15.7 points per game until they locked up first place and rested starters for the final two weeks of the regular season. If they hadn't repeatedly shot themselves in the foot against the Riders they would have blown them out as well and they look like a good bet to cover this spread on Sunday, even with the Ti-Cats playing in front of a home crowd.
Prediction: Blue Bombers -3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The trends in this matchup point firmly in the direction of the Under. The Ti-Cats have gone below the total in 14 of their last 19 games while the Bombers are 12-4-1 to the Under in their previous 17 contests.
Colder weather and the postseason also brings out the defensive intensity on both sides with Winnipeg going 5-1 to the Under in its last six playoff games and the Under cashing in four of the last five playoff contests played in Hamilton.
But even moving beyond the trends this has all the appearances of a defensive showdown. These were the top two teams in scoring defense during the regular season with the Bombers allowing just 13.4 ppg and the Ti-Cats holding foes to 17.4 ppg. Hamilton has been even better defensively at home, limiting opponents to 14.9 ppg in eight regular season and playoff contests at Tim Hortons Field this year.
Another factor to consider is the weather and while it will be a clear evening in Hamilton, winds are expected to average 17 miles per hour and could limit the downfield passing of both teams. Take the Under.
Prediction: Under 44 (-110)
Best bet
Evans was incredible when he came on in relief against Toronto last weekend but he'll find it much tougher to crack this Winnipeg pass defense. The Bombers have held opposing passers to just 216.4 passing yards per game this season and limited Evans to 203 yards through the air at the 107th Grey Cup.
The Bombers made a habit out of shutting down some of the best QBs in the league during the regular season. Michael Reilly and Trevor Harris couldn't even crack the 180-yard plateau in a total of five games, while Cody Fajardo was held to less than 220 yards in back-to-back weeks.
Evans is a good quarterback but star receiver Brandon Banks hasn't looked quite as explosive this year and his line will have a tough time buying him time to throw against this Winnipeg front. His passing yards total looks way too high at 249.5.
Prediction: Dane Evans Under 249.5 passing yards (-120)
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