The 2023 CFL season kicks off on June 8, and oddsmakers have put out several futures markets. The Canadian Football League features some of the softest lines of any North American sport, and it's a league with tons of offseason movement, which means plenty of juicy betting angles for those in the know. This past offseason has been no different, with seven of the nine teams in the league being led by a different starter at quarterback.
Here's a quick breakdown of what to know for the upcoming year with my five best future betting picks for the 2023 CFL season.
Zach Collaros MOP
Zach Collaros has easily the shortest CFL odds on the board, but this is still decent value when you consider his competition for this award. Collaros won his second straight Most Outstanding Player Award last year, and the only quarterbacks who were anywhere near him statistically (McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who led the league in passing yards, and Nathan Rourke, who was No. 1 in yards per attempt and passer rating) aren't in the CFL anymore.
Collaros' closest competition for MOP is Bo Levi Mitchell, who needs to build chemistry with a new team and has been underwhelming the last few years, and Chad Kelly, who is largely unproven at this level.
Not only is Collaros the best player on what's expected to once again be the best team in the league in the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, but he's surrounded by a supporting cast that will elevate his play. Wide receiver Dalton Schoen is poised for another big season after leading the CFL in receiving yards as a rookie last year, while Kenny Lawler returns to Winnipeg, where he led the league in receiving in 2021 (although he'll serve a suspension for the first few weeks).
With Collaros airing it out to those two wideouts while being protected by an elite offensive line, he should take home MOP honors as long as he can stay healthy.
Pick: Zach Collaros to win MOP (+275 at bet365)
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Elks Over 6.5 wins
The Edmonton Elks have the lowest win total in the CFL at just 6.5, which isn't surprising when you consider that they combined for just seven wins over the last two years. However, there's plenty of reason to think that they'll be much more competitive this season.
It's the second year of the new Chris Jones era (his second go-around after leading Edmonton to the Grey Cup in 2015), and he oversaw a big improvement from the first to second seasons in his previous tenure at Saskatchewan. While he was largely left with a roster from the previous regime last year, he has now surrounded himself with his guys, which should result in more continuity in terms of personnel from week to week.
Jones experimented with different lineups last year, but he found combinations that worked down the stretch. The Elks should also be much healthier after being decimated by injuries a year ago.
The Elks haven't upgraded at quarterback, but Taylor Cornelius will be more experienced in his third year as the starter, and he's a gritty player that is willing to look downfield or make tough yards with his legs. Talented receiver Dillon Mitchell and running back Kevin Brown came into the CFL late last season and were game-breakers down the stretch, while Edmonton also added top wideouts Geno Lewis and Steven Dunbar in the offseason.
Surrounding Cornelius with weapons like that will benefit the offense, while the stop-unit will be bolstered by the additions of A.C. Leonard and Loucheiz Purifoy. Factor in the massive improvements that the Elks have made on special teams, and they should be able to win at least seven games this year.
Pick: Elks regular season wins Over 6.5 (-115 at bet365)
Odds to win West Division
Most receiving yards - Malik Henry
Hamilton's Tim White is the current favorite to lead the league in receiving, but he'll need time to gel with Mitchell at QB and will get more attention from opposing defenses after a breakout campaign in 2022.
Other wideouts near the top of this list include Edmonton's Eugene Lewis, Ottawa's Jaelon Acklin, Winnipeg's Schoen and Lawler, and BC's Lucky Whitehead and Dominique Rhymes. The Bombers and Lions duos will likely be battling each other for targets, while Calgary's Malik Henry will benefit from more consistent QB play than Lewis and Acklin.
Sure, I like the Elks to go Over their win total, but Cornelius still isn't a great passer. Meanwhile, it's looking like the Redblacks might not have Jeremiah Masoli available at the start of the season, which doesn't bode well for Acklin.
Henry racked up 1,023 receiving yards in just 13 games last year, and should be in line for even bigger numbers if he can stay healthy this season. The 26-year-old has terrific chemistry with Maier ,and will only benefit from more reps with the young Calgary QB.
Pick: Most receiving yards - Malik Henry (+750 at bet365)
Most rushing yards - James Butler
Butler rushed for 1,060 yards on 210 carries for the Leos last year, with 566 of those yards coming in the final seven weeks of the regular season. The Tiger-Cats broke open the bank in the offseason to sign him, and they'll use him as their bell cow in 2023.
The addition of Mitchell at QB will force opposing defenses to respect Hamilton's passing game, which will make it easier for Butler to find holes on the ground. The Ti-Cats also upgraded their offensive line with the signing of left tackle Joel Figueroa, who paved the way for Butler last year in BC.
Perhaps most importantly, the Ti-Cats are expected to be Grey Cup odds contenders and have the second-highest win total of the year at 10.5. The more often they play with a lead, the more often they'll pound the ball with Butler.
Pick: Most rushing yards - James Butler (+350 at bet365)
Odds to win 2023 Grey Cup
Jake Maier Over 3,555.5 passing yards
Maier finished last season with 2,527 passing yards despite not taking over as the Stampeders' full-time QB until midway through Week 11. If beating out a two-time MOP in Mitchell for the starting QB gig wasn't impressive enough, Maier has a history of playing extremely well against the Bombers' elite pass defense.
The 26-year-old is now entering his third year in the league, and will be the unquestioned leader of a balanced Stamps attack that excels in pass protection while boasting a strong ground game that will take pressure off him.
Pick: Jake Maier Over 3,555.5 passing yards (-112 at FanDuel)
Bonus pick: Keep an eye on Unders in Argos games, especially early in the season
This isn't exactly a futures bet, but it is a betting angle worth keeping an eye on early in the season. The Argos had one of the best defenses in the league last year, which helped them to their 18th Grey Cup victory. That stop-unit could be even better this season after making Folarin Orimolade the highest-paid defensive end in the league and adding stud linebacker Jordan Williams and hybrid DB/LB Adarius Pickett to the mix.
That said, while their defense could be even stronger, I'm less confident in their offense. Quarterback Chad Kelly has potential but is largely untested, and the Argos could use more playmakers at wide receiver. Expect them to lean on their defense and running game to win contests, especially early in the season.
I'll be keeping a close eye on the total for their season opener in Week 2 against the Ti-Cats. Hamilton's offense might have a tough time playing up to lofty expectations early in the season as Mitchell builds chemistry with a new system and teammates.
