Week 12 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday with a clash between the Edmonton Elks and Montreal Alouettes.
The Als currently boast the best record in the league, and my Elks vs. Alouettes predictions expect them to roll again. Here are my best free CFL picks for this clash on August 25.
Elks vs Alouettes prediction
My best bet
Alouettes -6.5 (-110 at Betway)
My analysis
It's tough to fade the Montreal Alouettes at a touchdown or less at home, especially with the Als getting back starting quarterback (and MOP favourite) Cody Fajardo following a four-game absence.
The Als won four games in a row with backup QB Davis Alexander at the helm and they'll be even better with Fajardo, who leads the league in completion percentage (77.5%) and ranks second in pass efficiency rating (113.3).
Montreal's banged up WR corps also got a big boost this week when 2023 All-Star Austin Mack returned to the team after failing to stick in the NFL. With Mack and emerging wideout Charleston Rambo at his disposal, Fajardo should be able to pick apart an Edmonton Elks secondary that allows the most passing yards per game (307.4) and yards per pass attempt (9.3).
Despite winning three straight games, the Elks remain at the bottom of the West and their recent win streak doesn't look that great upon closer inspection. The first two wins came against the Riders and Lions, both of whom haven’t won in over a month and were playing with backup QBs. While their most recent victory came against the worst team in the league in the Ticats.
I'd like Edmonton's chances a lot better if Tre Ford was at QB but he's listed as doubtful. That means another start for McLeod Bethel-Thompson who is a good pocket passer but doesn't have the mobility to throw on the run or threaten Montreal on the ground. The Als allow a league-low 7.1 yards per pass attempt and rank second in opponent pass efficiency (87.5) so they'll force MBT into a tough outing.
Elks vs Alouettes same-game parlay (SGP)
Alouettes -6.5
Over 51.5
Eugene Lewis Over 52.5 receiving yards
Despite the Alouettes boasting one of the best stop units in the CFL, the Over has gone 4-2 in their last six games.
Meanwhile, the Elks have dropped 40.7 points per game in their last three contests, but also remain one of the worst defensive teams in the league. That, combined with the return of Fajardo, suggests a higher-scoring game on Sunday.
Geno Lewis saw limited targets with Ford at QB, but with Bethel-Thompson under center last week, he caught five of eight targets for 93 yards. The three-time All-Star went Over this number in four of six games at the start of the year with MBT at the helm, and since I'm expecting Montreal to pull away, we should see plenty of pass attempts from Edmonton.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Elks vs Alouettes odds
Elks vs Alouettes live odds
Elks vs Alouettes opening odds
- Spread: Edmonton +7.5 (-110) | Montreal -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Edmonton +330 | Montreal -390
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)
Elks vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Als opened as 7.5-point favorites before moving to -7 at most books as of Saturday.
- The Alouettes edged the Roughriders 27-24 in Regina last week to improve to 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS.
- The Elks began the year going 0-7 SU but had a slew of close defeats and have gone 3-0 SU and ATS since.
- These teams previously faced off in Week 2, with the Alouettes prevailing 23-20 as 4-point faves.
Elks vs Alouettes trend
Montreal is 17-2 SU and 15-3-1 ATS in its last 19 games. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Alouettes.
Elks vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-25-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Alouettes key injuries
Elks: Tre Ford RB (Out), Ja’Von Leake RB (Out), Loucheiz Purifoy DB (Out), Tomas Jack-Kurdyla G (Out), Romeo McKnight DE (Out), Marcus Lewis DB (Out), Kyran Moore WR (Out).
Alouettes: Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Kaion Julien-Grant WR (Out), Tyler Snead WR (Out), David Cote K (Out), Kristian Matte (Out), Tyrell Richards LB (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Reggie Stubblefield DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Elks vs Alouettes weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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