The Winnipeg Blue Bombers host the Edmonton Elks in Week 17 of CFL action on Friday night.
These teams faced off last week in Edmonton, with the Bombers winning 27-14, and my Elks vs. Blue Bombers predictions for this clash expect them to prevail again. Here are my best CFL picks for this West Division clash on September 27.
Elks vs Blue Bombers prediction
My best bet
Blue Bombers -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
When these teams squared off last week, it was interesting to see what would prevail between a Winnipeg Blue Bombers defense that had allowed just 17.6 ppg over their last seven games and an Edmonton Elks offense that had averaged 35.2 ppg over their previous six. Winnipeg's stop unit came out on top, forcing six turnovers and allowing just 14 points.
The Bombers were gashed on the ground, but their elite pass defense shut down Edmonton's aerial attack, and I expect the same with the Elks going back to McLeod Bethel-Thompson at quarterback. This musical chair situation isn't ideal for chemistry, with the Elks going back and forth between Bethel-Thompson and Tre Ford under center.
Ford struggled last week while Bethel-Thompson has been solid, but the mobile Ford puts a lot more pressure on opposing defenses. MBT is a pocket passer who will have a tough time against a Bombers defense that holds foes to the lowest pass efficiency (84.2) in the CFL.
Edmonton has been awful on defense, ranking last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (301.1) and per pass attempt (9.00). The Elks won't be able to contain star RB Brady Oliveira, and Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros should play better at home while taking advantage of an Elks secondary missing its top halfback in Darrius Bratton.
Elks vs Blue Bombers same-game parlay (SGP)
Blue Bombers -4.5
McLeod Bethel-Thompson Under 264.5 passing yards
Brady Oliviera Over 76.5 rushing yards
Bethel-Thompson threw for an incredible 486 yards in Week 13 against the Stampeders, but he's generally gone way below this number. In the last five games where he started and finished, that contest against the Stamps was the only time he threw for more than 235 yards. Don't expect him to eclipse this number against a Bombers secondary that allows a league-low 234.4 ypg through the air.
Oliveira leads the league with 1,021 rushing yards, and he rumbled for 127 yards on 18 carries against Edmonton last week. He has rushed for more 77+ yards in seven of his last 10 games. All three of the contests where he went below that number during that span came against Saskatchewan's stout run defense and he'll find more gaps against an Elks squad that allows 5.0 yards per carry.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Elks vs Blue Bombers odds
Elks vs Blue Bombers live odds
Elks vs Blue Bombers opening odds
- Spread: Edmonton +4.5 | Winnipeg -4.5
- Moneyline: Edmonton +190 | Winnipeg -230
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Elks vs Blue Bombers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Last week the Bombers opened at -3.5 before closing at -1. Considering they easily covered, it's surprising to see this line open only slightly wider at -4.5 despite them having the biggest home-field advantage in the CFL.
- The Bombers began the season 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread but have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since.
- The Elks lost their first seven games of the year but have gone 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven.
- With a stingy defense and an underachieving offense, the Bombers have been an Under machine, going 2-12 O/U this year.
Elks vs Blue Bombers trend
The Blue Bombers are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games at home. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Blue Bombers.
Elks vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | Princess Auto Stadium, Winnipeg, MN |
| Date: | Friday, 9-27-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Blue Bombers key injuries
Elks: Javon Leake RB (Out), Darrius Bratton HB (Out), Tomas Jack-Kurdyla G (Out), Marcus Lewis DB (Out), Hergy Mayala WR (Out), Romeo McKnight DE (Out), Kyran Moore WR (Out).
Blue Bombers: Lucky Whitehead WR (Questionable), Chris Streveler QB (Out), Drew Wolitarsky WR (Out), Dalton Schoen WR (Out), Adam Bighill LB (Out), Cam Lawson DT (Out), Jamal Parker DB (Out), Gabe Wallace OL (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Elks vs Blue Bombers weather
It's expected to be a sunny evening at Princess Auto Stadium, with a high of 63 degrees Fahrenheit and very light winds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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