Elks vs Lions Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Week 4

Week 4 in the CFL kicks off on Thursday night with the Edmonton Elks facing off against the BC Lions. 

Although Edmonton most likely won't come out on top, my Elks vs. Lions predictions are expecting McLeod Bethel-Thompson and the offense to keep producing. Here are my best free CFL picks for June 27. 

Elks vs Lions prediction

My best bet
Elks team total Over 21.5 (-115 at Bet99)

My analysis

The BC Lions' defense has struggled since the midway point of last season. While they've allowed just 20.5 points per game over the last two weeks, that could easily have been a lot worse considering they gave up 374.5 yards per game in those contests. This is a stop unit that has done a great job of preventing big plays but remains awful at defending short and intermediate passes. 
 
The Leos' defense ranks dead-last in the league in first downs allowed (70) and opponent completion percentage (77.8%), while ranking second-last in opponent passer rating (119.8). That's bad news against an Edmonton Elks offense that leads the league in first downs (67) and has been airing it out with McLeod Bethel Thompson under center. 

Bethel-Thompson is coming off a sensational performance against the Argos, and he enters Week 4 play completing 73% of his passes for 326 yards per game. The Elks scored 36 points against the Argos and the only thing that held their offense back in the first two weeks was sloppy turnovers. They did a much better job of taking care of the ball against Toronto and now face a BC side that has picked off just one pass this year. 

This pass-happy Elks offense is playing at the fastest pace in the league, and combined with an up-tempo Leos attack, should result in plenty of possessions. With the Elks team total sitting as low as 21.5, the Over is the play.

Elks vs Lions same-game parlay (SGP)

Elks team total Over 22.5

Elks +7.5

William Stanback Over 68.5 rushing yards

+420 at FanDuel

Although the Elks have gone 0-3 straight up to begin the year, they've been extremely competitive in all three of their games. They squandered a fourth-quarter lead against the Riders in their season opener, lost by just three points to the defending champion Alouettes in Week 2, and were defeated by a last-second field goal last week.   

This has been an extremely competitive season in the CFL so far, with nine of 12 games being decided in the fourth quarter. That parity has me leaning toward taking the Elks at more than a touchdown — especially if their offense has success. 

I mentioned how bad BC's defense is, but Edmonton's stop unit has been even worse. The Elks have been getting gashed on the ground, where they rank second-last in the league in rushing yards per game allowed (114.0) and yards allowed per carry (5.2). The Leos signed Stanback in the offseason to upgrade their running game, and the two-time All-Star rumbled for 83 yards on 16 carries last week.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Elks vs Lions odds

Elks vs Lions live odds

Elks vs Lions opening odds

• Spread: Edmonton +5.5 (-110) | BC -5.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Edmonton +220 | BC -275
• Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)

Elks vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis

• Money has come in on the Lions and the Over, shifting the spread from -5.5 to -7.5 and moving the total up to 53.5.
• Vernon Adams leads the CFL with 1,038 passing yards. While he's listed as questionable due to an abdominal strain, head coach Rick Campbell has indicated that he'll play.
• The Leos began the season with an upset loss in Toronto but have responded with back-to-back wins and covers against the Stamps and Bombers.
• The Lions are 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.

Elks vs Lions trend

The Lions have allowed 11 of their last 14 opponents to eclipse their team total. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Lions.

Elks vs Lions game info

Elks vs Lions key injuries

Elks: Michael Brodrique LB (Out), Tomas Jack-Kurdyla G (Out), Hergy Mayala WR, J-Min Pelley DT (Out), Kyran Moore WR (Out).
Lions: Vernon Adams Jr. (Questionable), Ben Hladik LB (Questionable), Michael Couture C (Out), Keon Hatcher WR (Out), T.J. Lee DB (Out), Francis Bemiy Jr. DL (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Elks vs Lions weather

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