It's Week 9 in the CFL but the Edmonton Elks are still looking for their first win of the year as they head to Mosaic Stadium to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
Edmonton has made an exciting change at quarterback and money has poured in on the road team, but my Elks vs Roughriders predictions are going against the line movement.
Here are my best free CFL picks for Saturday, August 3.
Elks vs Roughriders prediction
My best bet
Roughriders -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Edmonton Elks are 0-7 and while they had a slew of close defeats at the beginning of the year, thing have gotten ugly lately. Last week when they trailed the Ticats 41-8 in the fourth quarter which led to them benching starting quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson in favor of Tre Ford.
Ford looked terrific, completing 10-of-15 passes for 121 yards and three touchdowns with another 19 yards on the ground, but the Saskatchewan Roughriders are a bad matchup for him.
Ford has elite mobility and breakaway speed but the Roughriders have the best run defense in the league, holding foes to 47.6 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. Ford isn't a good enough passer to take advantage of Saskatchewan's secondary, and if he gets too aggressive, he could have turnover issues against a Riders stop unit that leads the CFL with 21 takeaways.
On the other side of the ball, Edmonton has been terrible. The Elks are last in the league in opponent pass efficiency rating (110.2) and yards allowed per game (390.1) while ranking second-last in yards allowed per play (7.0) and scoring defense (30.9 points per game).
The Riders haven't been efficient on offense with Shea Patterson at the helm but they should be able to get the job done, especially with the Elks on a short week and visiting Mosaic where the Riders are 3-0 SU and ATS this year.
Elks vs Roughriders same-game parlay (SGP)
Roughriders -3.5
Under 51.5
Samuel Emilus Over 4.5 receptions
While I think Patterson will move the ball better than usual, don't expect a high-scoring shootout. In the Riders' first game with Patterson at the helm, they scored 30 points largely on the back of five takeaways. Since then, they've averaged just 18.3 ppg across three contests.
Samuel Emilus has been Patterson's favorite receiver and leads the Riders in receptions (35) and targets (52). He has hauled in 6+ receptions in each of his last three games and will see plenty of targets against an Edmonton defense that surrenders 310.3 passing yards per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Elks vs Roughriders odds
Elks vs Roughriders live odds
Elks vs Roughriders opening odds
- Spread: Edmonton +5.5 (-110) | Saskatchewan -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Edmonton +205 | Saskatchewan -250
- Over/Under: Over 51 (-110) | Under 51 (-110)
Elks vs Roughriders spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread stayed steady at Saskatchewan -5.5 for most of the week, but money came in on Edmonton on Friday, slimming the line to -3.5.
- These teams previously clashed in Edmonton in Week 1. The Elks held a 21-8 lead in the fourth quarter before the Riders rallied to win 29-21.
- Ford started 10 games last year, completing 67.4% of his passes for 2,069 yards while adding another 622 yards on 66 carries.
- The Riders are 5-2 straight up and against the spread but have dropped two of their last three games and are coming off a 20-16 loss to the Alouettes.
Elks vs Roughriders trend
The Elks are 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Roughriders.
Elks vs Roughriders game info
| Location: | Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-3-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Roughriders key injuries
Elks: Kevin Brown RB (Out), Hunter Steward G (Out), Marcus Lewis DB (Out), Arkell Smith WR (Out), Tomas Jack-Kurdyla G (Out), Kyran Moore WR (Out).
Roughriders: A.J. Ouellette RB (Out), Anthony Lanier DT (Out), Trevor Harris QB (Out), Kian Schaffer-Baker WR (Out), Jermarcus Hardrick RT (Out), Jacob Brammer RT (Out), Charbel Dabire DT (Out), Christian Albright DE (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Elks vs Roughriders weather
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