Week 4 in the CFL wraps up on Monday night with a showdown between the BC Lions and the Toronto Argonauts. This is a marquee matchup between two of the best teams in the league with the Lions boasting a 3-0 record while the defending Grey Cup champion Argos are 2-0.
CFL betting lines opened with the Leos installed as slim one-point road favorites, but money has come in on them, and they now sit at -3. Here are my best free Lions vs. Argonauts CFL picks and predictions for July 3.
Lions vs Argonauts best odds
Lions vs Argonauts picks and predictions
The BC Lions have a perfect 3-0 record with none of those victories more impressive than last week's 30-6 victory against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. They went into IG Field as six-point underdogs against the favorites in the Grey Cup odds and held Winnipeg to just 235 net yards while picking up seven sacks.
On the other side of the ball, the Leos didn't turn the ball over once and quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. had another efficient outing. Adams has now completed 73% of his passes for 861 yards with five touchdowns, while running back Taquan Mizzell is second in the league with 224 rushing yards.
That balanced offense is a reason they've been so successful this season, but the primary factor has been their dominant defense. They limited the Stampeders to 245 yards and 15 points in Week 1, shut out the Elks in Week 2, and manhandled a high-octane Bombers attack that had averaged 43 ppg against its first two opponents.
The Leos proved that Winnipeg's elite offensive line was no match for them with Mathieu Betts getting three sacks against seven-time All-Star left tackle Stanley Bryant. That's important to note in this one because the Toronto Argonauts' offensive line has looked solid this season, but has benefitted from playing against some weak defensive units.
Toronto's defensive line has been almost as impressive as BC's. Defense was the calling card for Toronto last year when they won the Grey Cup and that stop unit got even better in the offseason after adding edge rusher Folarin Orimolade and linebacker Jordan Williams.
Defensive tackles Shawn Oakman and Dewayne Hendricks are a fantastic duo inside and get a ton of pressure up the middle. They should make life tough for Adams since the Lions interior trio of Andrew Pierson, Michael Couture, and Sukh Chung all had pass-blocking grades below 45.0 last week, according to PFF.
Toronto held the Tiger-Cats to 14 points in their season opener in Week 2, and while they gave up 31 points to the Elks last week, two of those Edmonton touchdowns were scored in garbage time during the final three minutes of the game.
It's also worth mentioning that while both squads have looked very good this season, one area where they have not impressed has been on special teams. The Leos are sixth in the league in both punt return and kick return average, while the Argos are seventh in punt return average and dead-last in kick return average.
Expect a tight defensive battle between a pair of Grey Cup contenders on Monday and bet the Under 47.5.
My best bet: Under 47.5 (-110 at bet365)
Lions vs Argonauts same-game parlay
Under 47.5
Kelly Under 247.5 passing yards
Ouellette Over 56.5 rushing yards
Coming into this season, the big question about the Argos was how first-year starting QB Chad Kelly was going to perform. Kelly has looked good so far but his passing numbers certainly don't jump off the page with a 58.7 completion percentage and 251 passing yards per game.
Now he faces a stingy BC defense that is holding opposing quarterbacks to just 160.7 ypg, and he could once again be missing his two best wide receivers.
If the Argos want to have success in this contest, they'll need to take the pressure off Kelly by running the ball. Oullette had just 13 carries in Week 2 but still picked up 60 yards, and he had 84 yards and three scores against the Elks last week. He should be able to go Over his rushing yards total against a BC defense that surrenders a league-high 5.3 yards per carry, but has seldom been tested in blow-out wins.
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Lions vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
This line saw early movement with the Lions opening as one-point faves and quickly moving to -3. However, it hasn't swung past that key number of 3, and it will be interesting to see if there is buy back on the home side before kickoff.
Not only have these teams combined to go 5-0 straight up and against the spread this season, but all of their victories have come by double digits.
The Argos are coming off a 43-31 win on the road in Edmonton, where the Elks scored a pair of late touchdowns to make the final score look closer than the game actually was. The Argos controlled the line of scrimmage in that contest, with their line opening up big holes to help them gain 191 yards on the ground, while the defense had six sacks.
The Lions are fresh off that previously mentioned 30-6 beatdown of the Bombers and have now gone 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on the road.
This game will likely come down to which side can own the line of scrimmage since both teams have been anchored by their defensive lines while getting sturdy protection from their blockers.
The total opened at 46.5 and has ticked up to 47.5. Another factor to consider when betting the total in this game is the weather for Monday, and there's currently a 90% chance of showers.
Lions vs Argonauts trend to know
The Under is 7-0 in the Lions' last seven games, while going 6-0 in their previous six contests on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Argonauts.
Lions vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, July 3, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Argonauts key injuries
Lions: Lucky Whitehead WR (Questionable), Philip Norman OL (Out).
Argonauts: Kurleigh Gittens Jr. WR (Questionable), Jordan Williams LB (Doubtful), Darius Ciraco C (Questionable), Robert Priester DB (Questionable), Isiah Cage OL (Doubtful), Henoc Muamba LB (Out), Markeith Ambles WR (Out), Dariusz Bladek OL (Out), Shane Richards OL (Out), Maurice Carnell IV DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
