Week 9 in the CFL kicks off on Thursday night with a clash between the BC Lions and Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
The Bombers are playing on a short week after losing last weekend, and my Lions vs. Blue Bombers predictions for this West Division showdown expect their troubles to continue.
Here are my best free CFL picks for August 1.
Lions vs Blue Bombers prediction
My best bet
Lions -3.5 (-115 at Betway)
My analysis
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have been the biggest disappointment in the CFL. They entered the season as the title favorites after four consecutive trips to the Grey Cup but are just 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread to begin the year.
They have been better at home, where they beat the Redblacks and Stampeders while losing a close contest against the BC Lions in Week 3, but they're in a tougher spot this time. They'll be playing on just four days of rest after losing 16-14 to the Argos on Saturday while the Leos are fresh off a bye.
The Lions have the most explosive attack in the CFL, leading the league in points per game (29.4), yards per game (406.6), and average yards per play (7.24). Their only weakness on offense is their offensive line but Winnipeg isn't built to take advantage of that.
The Bombers have a banged-up defensive line that has the second-lowest grade in the league per PFF, and they're also second-last in sacks. If Lions star quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. has time to throw, he'll torch a Winnipeg secondary that has allowed a league-high 13 pass completions of 30+ yards.
On the other side of the ball, Winnipeg's offensive line also has the second-worst grade in the league while BC has the second-most sacks. Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros struggles under pressure and has thrown for just three touchdowns against eight interceptions. He's missing four starting receivers (including a pair of All-Star talents in Dalton Schoen and Kenny Lawler), which has led to the Bombers putting up a league-low 20.4 ppg.
Lions vs Blue Bombers same-game parlay (SGP)
Lions alt. spread -2.5
Under 49.5
Ontaria Wilson Over 4.5 receptions
As of Wednesday evening, the spread has ticked up to BC -4.5 at most books, but I'll take the alternate line below that key number of 3 for this parlay.
With a WR corps decimated by injuries, a shaky O-line, and an offense that has turned the ball over a league-high 19 times, Winnipeg's attack has been punchless. However, Princess Auto Stadium is one of the toughest venues for visiting offenses and the Bombers generally tend to play better defense here.
The Under is 7-1 in the Bombers' eight games this season while also cashing in five of the last six meetings between these teams in Winnipeg
With Schoen, Lawler, Drew Wolitarsky, and Keric Wheatfall all on the IL, Collaros is missing most of his favorite receivers. However, Wilson has thrived with more opportunities and the rookie broke out with 13 catches in Week 6 while hauling in seven of nine targets last week.
While Wilson was limited to a pair of catches in Week 7, he still saw seven targets. If he reels in those targets he'll hit this number against a BC secondary that allows opposing QBs to complete 72.1% of their passes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lions vs Blue Bombers odds
Lions vs Blue Bombers live odds
Lions vs Blue Bombers opening odds
- Spread: BC -3.5 | Winnipeg +3.5
- Moneyline: BC -175 | Winnipeg +145
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Lions vs Blue Bombers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Lions, shifting the spread from -3.5 to -4.5.
- The Leos are coming off a bye after losing a nail-biter to the Stamps in Week 7 but they are still 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
- The Bombers are just 1-7 ATS but oddsmakers are adjusting. They lost outright as a fave six times this season but almost covered as a 1.5-point dog last week.
- Collaros has posted a passer rating above 110 in each of the last three years but he has the lowest rating (81.8) in the league among qualifying QBs this season.
Lions vs Blue Bombers trend
The Bombers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall while the Lions are 9-2 ATS in their previous 11 contests following a loss. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Blue Bombers.
Lions vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | Princess Auto Stadium, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-1-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Blue Bombers key injuries
Lions: Chris Schleugher G (Out), Jevon Cottoy WR (Out), Josh Woods LB (Out), Manny Rugamba DB (Out), Tibo Debaillie DT (Out).
Blue Bombers: Pat Neufeld G (Out), Drew Wolitarsky (Out), Dalton Schoen WR (Out), Kenny Lawler (Out), Keric Wheatfall WR (Out), Cam Lawson DT (Out), Miles Fox DT (Out), Jamal Parker DB (Out), Celestin Haba DE (Out), Kyrie Wilson LB (Out), Brian Cole LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Lions vs Blue Bombers weather
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