The Winnipeg Blue Bombers host the BC Lions in the Western Final of the CFL playoffs tonight. Winnipeg has been incredible at home, losing just three games at IG Field since the start of 2019, but one of those defeats came in embarrassing fashion vs. BC earlier this year.
The Bombers got revenge for that ugly loss and oddsmakers expect them to win again, with CFL odds installing them as 4.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 49.5. Here are my free CFL picks for the Lions vs. Blue Bombers on November 11.
Lions vs Blue Bombers best odds
Lions vs Blue Bombers picks and predictions
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers enjoy the best home-field advantage in the CFL with the packed stadium at IG producing the loudest crowd in the league, and the bitter cold in November suiting their physical play. They've gone 17-2 straight up and 14-5 against the spread at home since the start of last year, with an incredible 15 of those wins coming by at least a touchdown.
That said, one of those rare home losses came against the BC Lions in Week 3 when they were hammered by a final score of 30-6. The Bombers proved that game was an outlier by having a rematch at IG six weeks later and destroying the Lions by a final score of 50-14. They also beat the Leos in an overtime thriller at BC Place in Week 18 to take the season series.
That Week 3 performance from BC's defense was incredible, and that stop unit looked very impressive through the first eight weeks of the year. However, after the Bombers dropped that 50-burger things haven't been the same.
The Lions have surrendered 31.6 points per game in their last 10 contests and have been getting shredded both through the air and on the ground. That's bad news against a Bombers' offense that has been unstoppable lately. Winnipeg has rolled up an incredible 44.8 points and 491.4 yards per game in its previous five contests at home.
Quarterback Zach Collaros led the league in pass efficiency rating (112.8) and touchdowns thrown (33) while ranking second in passing yards (4,252). The only reason Collaros won't win his third-straight Most Outstanding Player Award is because of teammate Brady Oliveira. The running back rushed for a CFL-high 1,534 yards (nearly 400 more than second-place Kevin Brown) while adding another 482 yards on 48 catches.
Collaros and Oliveira both benefit from a dominant Bombers offensive line that was the highest graded in the league according to PFF. That line uncharacteristically struggled in the Week 3 loss to the Leos, surrendering seven sacks.
However, it gave up a total of three sacks in its last two games against BC, while the Leos have just four sacks in their previous three contests overall. If that line can keep Collaros clean in the pocket, the Bombers should be win and cover.
The only factor that makes me wary of this bet is the health of several Winnipeg receivers. Leading receiver Dalton Schoen (1,233 receiving yards) looks unlikely to play while second-leading receiver Nic Demski (1,006 yards) and red-zone threat Rasheed Bailey will be game-time decisions. If at least one of them suits up to take pressure off Kenny Lawler, I'm playing this number.
My best bet: Blue Bombers -4.5 (-110 at 888sport)
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Lions vs Blue Bombers same-game parlay
Blue Bombers -4.5
Hatcher Under 6.5 rec
Lawler Over 70.5 rec yds
Receiving props can often be a volatile bet, and while Keon Hatcher led the Lions with 78 receptions, his receptions total is a bit inflated here. Keep in mind he went Over this number in four of 15 games this year (just one in his last six contests) and he was a non-factor in both of his games against Winnipeg.
Hatcher is an excellent wideout but the Leos have a loaded WR corps with Alexander Hollins, Jevon Cottoy, Lucky Whitehead, and Bryan Burnham, meaning Vernon Adams will likely spread the ball out.
Meanwhile, the Bombers have several starting wideouts banged up, so Collaros will likely lock on to Lawler against a Leos secondary that has been getting torched. Lawler went off for 200 yards against BC in Week 9 and racked up more than 90 receiving yards in two of his last three games.
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Lions vs Blue Bombers spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Bombers at -4.5 and the O/U at 49.5. While the spread hasn't moved as of Thursday afternoon, the total has ticked up to 50.5 — which isn't surprising given how explosive these offenses are and how bad the Lions were on defense during the second half of the season.
When these teams previously faced off in Winnipeg in Week 9, the Bombers were 6-point faves and won by 36 points. When they clashed in Vancouver last month, Winnipeg was a slim 1-point road fave and won in overtime.
The Bombers closed out their regular season going 4-0 SU and ATS. While their offense led the league in scoring (33.0 ppg) and yards per game (414.7), their defense also played extremely well down the stretch and allowed the fewest points per game (20.9) and yards per game (298.8).
The Leos beat the Stamps 41-30 in the Western Semifinal last week, and although they've won six of their last eight games, they've gone just 3-7 ATS in their previous 10. While their defense has been struggling, their offense remains extremely dangerous with Vernon Adams throwing the ball to a bevy of talented receivers.
Lions vs Blue Bombers trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Winnipeg's last five games against a team with a winning record while going 5-1 in BC's previous six contests vs. winning teams. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Blue Bombers.
Lions vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | IG Field, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Blue Bombers key injuries
Lions: Jalon Edwards-Cooper DB (Out), Ben Hladik LB (Out).
Blue Bombers: Dalton Schoen WR (Doubtful), Nic Demski SB (Questionable), Rasheed Bailey WR (Questionable), Jackson Jeffcoat DE (Questionable), Alden Darby SLB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
