Week 12 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday with a clash between the BC Lions and Edmonton Elks.
Edmonton is coming off its first win of the year and will look to keep that momentum going, but my Lions vs. Elks predictions expect their defense to struggle.
Here are my best free CFL picks for this West Division showdown.
Lions vs Elks prediction
My best bet
Jake Dolegala Over 246.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The BC Lions will likely be without star quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. for a few weeks due to a knee injury. However, oddsmakers seem to be undervaluing backup QB Jake Dolegala, who will be in a good spot to excel on Sunday.
Dolegala doesn't have Adams' mobility or ability to throw on the run, but he's a massive 6-foot-7 pocket passer with a cannon of an arm. He started the second half of last season for Saskatchewan and threw for more than 270 yards in five of his final eight games. That stretch included a 409-yard game against the Leos in Week 17 and an incredible 429-yard performance against Toronto's stingy defense in the Riders season finale.
He has far better receivers to throw to this year with the Leos boasting Justin McInnis and Alexander Hollins, who are first and third, respectively, in the CFL in receiving yards.
The Edmonton Elks are coming off their first win of the year but they still surrendered 31 points and 306 passing yards against the Riders and their new backup QB Shea Patterson. They are now second-last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (309.8) and opponent passer rating (108.6).
The Elks are at the bottom of the CFL standings but they've been competitive all season and are slim home favorites here. That should result in a negative or neutral game script for BC's offense, which will lead to Dolegala airing the ball out.
Lions vs Elks same-game parlay (SGP)
Jake Dolegala Over 253.5 passing yards
Lions team total Over 24.5
Elks team total Over 24.5
Since I expect plenty of passing yards from Dolegala, taking the Over on the Lions team total makes sense in this parlay. They'll likely take a step back without the MOP favourite in Adams but should still be able to eclipse this modest number against an Edmonton defense that surrenders 30.9 ppg and a league-worst 9.7 yards per pass attempt.
That said, the Leos will also give up plenty up points against an Elks attack has come alive since putting the electric Tre Ford at QB. Ford showed promise in 10 starts as a sophomore last year but didn't get a chance this season until the fourth quarter of their blowout loss to Hamilton in Week 8. Ford led the Elks to three straight touchdown drives in that contest before spearheading a 42-31 victory against the Riders last week.
Ford's ability to throw on the run or take off downfield makes him extremely tough for defenses to gameplan against. The Lions have been vulnerable on defense ranking last in the league in opponent passer rating (111.2), and if their pass rush is unable to get to the elusive Ford, they'll get picked apart.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lions vs Elks odds
Lions vs Elks live odds
Lions vs Elks opening odds
- Spread: BC +1 | Edmonton -1
- Moneyline: BC -105 | Edmonton -115
- Over/Under: Over 49 | Under 49
Lions vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Elks opened at -1 and early money came in on them, moving their line to -2.5. However, buyback on BC has brough the spread back to -1 as of Saturday afternoon.
- The Elks are 1-7 but they've had a handful of close defeats with three losses coming on last-second field goals — including their Week 4 loss at BC Place.
- BC demolished the Elks 27-0 last year with Adams sidelined but was held to 14 and 19 points in the two other games where Adams was injured.
- The Lions are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these West Division foes.
Lions vs Elks trend
The Over is 10-4 in Tre Ford's 14 career starts. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Elks.
Lions vs Elks game info
| Location: | Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-11-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Elks key injuries
Lions: Vernon Adams Jr. QB (Doubtful), Josh Woods LB (Out).
Elks: Kevin Brown RB (Out), Arkell Smith WR (Out), Romeo McKnight DE (Out), Tomas Jack-Kurdyla G (Out), Marcus Lewis DB (Out), Kyran Moore WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Lions vs Elks weather
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