The BC Lions head to Regina to face off against the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Week 8 of CFL action on Friday night. The Roughriders will look to rebound after back-to-back losses against the Argonauts but it won't be easy against Nathan Rourke and the 4-1 Lions.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest with CFL betting lines opening with the Lions as 2.5-point road favourites before shortening to -1.
Here are our best free Lions vs. Roughriders picks and predictions for July 29.
Lions vs Roughriders odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Lions at -2.5 or -2. Early money has come in on the home side, shortening the line to as low as Lions -1 at most books as of Thursday morning. The total has stayed steady at 49.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Lions vs Roughriders Week 8 predictions
- Prediction: Lions -1 (-105)
- Prediction: Over 49 (-110)
- Best bet: Riders to commit 1st accepted penalty (-108)
Predictions made on 7/28/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Lions vs Roughriders game info
• Location: Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK
• Date: Friday, July 29, 2022
• Kickoff: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Lions at Roughriders betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Lions: Joel Figueroa OT (Questionable), Boseko Lokombo LB (Out), Delvin Breaux Sr. DB (Probable), Jalon Edwards-Cooper DB (Questionable), Woody Baron DT (Out), Steven Richardson DT (Out), Bryan Burnham WR (Out), David Knevel OG (Out).
Roughriders: Cody Fajardo QB (Probable), Logan Bandy C (Out), Garrett Marino DT (Out), Pete Robertson DE (Out), Derrick Moncrief LB (Questionable), AC Leonard DE (Out), Kyran Moore (Out), Mitchell Picton WR (Questionable), Anthony Lanier DT (Questionable), Nick Marshall DB (Questionable), Frankie Hickson RB (Questionable), Shaq Evans WR (Out), Dan Clark C (Out), Micah Teitz LB (Out), Godfrey Onyeka DB (Out), Mike Edem LB (Questionable).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Lions' last six games against West Division foes. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Roughriders.
Lions vs Roughriders picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Riders are coming off a short week after losing 31-21 to the Argos on Sunday. A big reason for that defeat was an ugly pro debut from third-string quarterback Jake Dolegala but the defense also struggled, surrendering 336 yards through the air and another 160 on the ground.
Despite being listed as questionable, Cody Fajardo will likely be back at QB after practicing this week, but his mobility has been affected by a lingering MCL injury and he's had a tough time throwing downfield all season. He could find it even harder to stretch the field against a Lions secondary that seldom allows big plays and is holding opposing QBs to a league-low pass efficiency rating of just 79.8.
Another problem for Saskatchewan will be at center, where they were already hurting after All-Star Dan Clark broke his fibula in Week 2 and now his replacement, Logan Bandy, has been ruled out for Friday.
On the other side of the ball, Saskatchewan has also been hit hard by injuries. The Roughriders were easily leading the CFL in sacks through the first five weeks of the season but with ends A.C. Leonard and Pete Robertson sidelined, and tackle Garrett Marino serving a suspension, they haven't generated much pressure over their last two games.
That's bad news against a high-octane Lions offense that is atop the CFL with 7.8 yards per play and is led by the mobile Rourke, who has been sacked just four times this year. Rourke leads the league in passing yards per game (321.0), efficiency rating (123.0), and yards per attempt (10.0), and if he has time to make plays, he will make the Riders pay.
The Riders are typically very tough to beat at Mosaic but with how banged up they are and with how well the Lions have been playing, I'm backing the road faves on a short line.
Prediction: Lions -1 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
The Roughriders couldn't move the ball with Dolegala last week, so even a limping Fajardo will be a big improvement in that area.
That said, I'm not sure if the Riders will be any better on defense, considering all their injuries on that side of the ball. Saskatchewan has plenty of depth but no team can play without multiple starters in every position group and expect not to take a step back.
The Riders could be missing their entire starting defensive line if tackle Anthony Lanier (questionable with a thigh injury) doesn't suit up. Linebacker Derrick Moncrief and defensive back Nick Marshall (tied for the league lead with three interceptions) are questionable as well.
That will make it tough for them to slow down a Lions offense that is coming off a disappointing performance against the Ticats and will be looking to get back to their form from earlier in the year.
With the Over 9-2 in BC's last 11 games and Saskatchewan going 4-1 O/U in its previous five contests, I'm leaning towards the Over 49 on Friday.
Prediction: Over 49 (-110 at Caesars)
Best bet
The "team to commit first accepted penalty" is often viewed as a coin-flip prop that has an equal opportunity for both teams and is priced as such.
However, there is a massive discrepancy between how often these two squads have been penalized. The Riders have gotten dinged for a league-high 10.9 penalties per game, while the Lions have a league-low 5.6 penalties per game.
Poor discipline and excessive penalties have been an issue that has plagued Saskatchewan going back to last season when they also had the most penalties in the CFL.
Offside: The official penalty of the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
— Rob Vanstone (@robvanstone) June 4, 2022
Saskatchewan's tendency to get penalized a lot (especially for offsides) is no coincidence, and until head coach Craig Dickinson figures it out, this play will have value.
Pick: Team to commit first accepted penalty - Roughriders (-108 at BetRegal)
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