Week 19 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a clash between the Toronto Argonauts and Ottawa Redblacks. The Argos have been resting key starters on a rotating basis ever since clinching first place in the East Division four weeks ago. That has led to volatility in their starting lineups, resulting in books being hesitant to release odds for this contest.
CFL betting lines for this Saturday showdown finally hit the board on Friday night with the Argos as 8.5-point home favorites. Here are my best free Argonauts vs. Redblacks CFL picks and predictions for October 14.
Redblacks vs Argonauts best odds
Redblacks vs Argonauts picks and predictions
The biggest news for the line was that the Argonauts intend to start quarterback Chad Kelly. Kelly has completed 68.6% of his passes for 3,561 yards while leading the CFL in yards per attempt (10.4) and ranking second in pass efficiency rating (109.9). Most importantly, he's spearheaded an offense that averages an incredible 33.0 points per game and Toronto has gone 13-0 straight up and 11-2 against the spread in the 13 games that he has started and finished.
With the Argos incredibly clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs way back in Week 15, they have been balancing giving Kelly rest while also making sure that he isn't rusty by the time the East Final begins.
Kelly likely won't play the entire game on Saturday, but given how sharp backup Cameron Dukes looked two weeks ago, it might not matter. Making his first CFL start on the road against a very tough Blue Bombers defense, Dukes completed 17 of 24 passes for 231 yards. He may even have led Toronto to an upset win if he hadn't been replaced by third-string QB Bryan Scott in the fourth quarter.
The Argos are dealing with the absence of multiple key players at wide receiver, linebacker, and defensive back but they have plenty of depth in all those areas. In addition, the Redblacks don't have the passing game to take advantage of that banged-up Argos secondary.
This is an Ottawa squad that ranks dead-last in the CFL in passing yards per game (216.6) and while mobile rookie QB Dustin Crum has given this offense a spark he is just 10th among 12 qualifiers in pass efficiency rating. He has also found himself benched in each of the last two games after ugly performances.
While the Redblacks have been mediocre on offense, they've been even worse on the other side of the ball. They rank second-last in the league in scoring defense (27.5 ppg allowed) while ranking last in yards allowed per pass attempt (9.9).
The Redblacks are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games and are coming off back-to-back losses by double digits. It also doesn't help that they are playing on just four days of rest after losing by 26 to the Alouettes on Monday.
Even after clinching the East crown, the Argos have been winning despite sitting starters. They beat the Tiger-Cats by 15 in Week 16, almost upset the Bombers at IG Field in Week 17, and then hammered the Elks by 23 points last week. Expect this finely-tuned machine to roll again.
My best bet: Argonauts -8.5 (-110 at Bet99)
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Redblacks vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
The Argos opened as 2.5-point underdogs in what was essentially a meaningless game on the road versus the Bombers two weeks ago. Reports later came out that the Argos would rest starting Kelly and other key starters in that contest. While the books instantly moved the spread to +6.5 and incrementally increased it to +9, they still got hosed by the public when the Bombers won by 10 points.
Ever since that game, books have been very reluctant to release odds until they know who Toronto head coach Ryan Dinwiddie expects to play. After the Argos announced their final injury report and said that Kelly would start last night, books finally put out this spread at -8.5 for Toronto. The total soon followed at 48.5 although
The Argos have gone 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS this year and their only defeats came in a contest where Kelly was injured in the second quarter and that previously mentioned tilt in Winnipeg where he got the night off.
The Redblacks are coming off a 29-3 loss to the Alouettes where they were dominated on both sides of the ball. The floundering franchise looked like it had turned the corner earlier in the season when Crum led them to upset victories against the Bombers and Stamps in Weeks 6 and 7. However, they've gone just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS since then and Crum has plateaued.
Redblacks vs Argonauts trend to know
The Redblacks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against East Division opponents while the Argonauts are 23-9-3 ATS in their previous 35 contests against teams in the East. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Argonauts.
Redblacks vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, October 14, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Redblacks vs Argonauts key injuries
Redblacks: Brandin Dandridge CB (Out), Drew Desjarlais G (Out), DeVonte Dedmon WR/KR (Out), Sherrod Baltimore DB (Out), Cariel Brooks DB (Out), Abdul Kanneh DB (Out), Tyron Vrede LB (Out), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Lewis Ward K (Out), Nate Behar WR (Out).
Argonauts: Peter Nicastro C (Questionable), A.J. Ouellette RB (Out), Dejon Allen RT (Out), DaShaun Amos DB (Out), Jamal Peters CB (Out), Josh Hagerty DB (Out), Jordan Williams LB (Out), Cam Phillips WR (Out), Kurleigh Gittens Jr. WR (Out), Robertson Daniel DB (Out), Andrew Harris RB (Out), Henoc Muamba LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
