Week 12 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday with the Edmonton Elks hosting the Ottawa Redblacks at Commonwealth Stadium.
These are the two worst teams in the league, and the Redblacks were clobbered 30-12 when they faced off last week in the nation's capital. With that in mind, Ottawa is made a change at quarterback and will start Nick Arbuckle in the hopes of adding a spark during the second half of the season.
Here are our best free Redblacks vs. Elks picks and predictions for Saturday, August 27.
Redblacks vs Elks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Elks installed as 3-point home favorites with the Over/Under set at 48.5. In a rarity for the CFL, neither line has budged as of Friday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Redblacks vs Elks Week 12 predictions
Predictions made on 8/26/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Redblacks vs Elks game info
• Location: The Brick Field at Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Saturday, August 27, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Redblacks at Elks betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Redblacks: Money Hunter CB (Out), Justin Howell S (Out), Sherrod Baltimore DB (Out), RJ Harris WR (Out), William Powell RB (Out), Adam Auclair OLB (Out), Kwaku Boateng DE (Out), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Randy Richards OT (Out).
Elks: Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Out), Tony Washington OT (Out), Tre Ford QB (Out), Tre Watson LB (Out), Aaron Grymes S (Out), Christian Rector DT (Out), James Wilder Jr. RB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Elks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games, while the Redblacks are 4-1 ATS in their previous five contests on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Elks.
Redblacks vs Elks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The 1-8 Redblacks have the worst record in the league, but playing at home last week had Ottawa open as 4.5-point favorites. That line proved wildly inaccurate as they allowed the Elks to score 27 unanswered points and win their third game of the season — with all of those victories non-coincidently coming against East Division foes.
The Redblacks replaced incumbent quarterback Caleb Evans in the fourth quarter with Arbuckle, who broke out with a highly-productive season as Bo Levi Mitchell's injury replacement in Calgary in 2019.
Arbuckle joined the Redblacks the following year but didn't take a snap due to the season being canceled and then struggled with the Argos in 2021. He signed with the Elks this past offseason but was never head coach Chris Jones' guy, and was ultimately traded to Ottawa for a bag of chips after throwing eight interceptions to just two touchdowns in Edmonton.
Arbuckle is actually fairly accurate — especially on the quick routes he prefers — and his interceptions are typically due to poor decision-making. He needs to do a much better job of taking care of the football but will be helped by an Elks secondary that rarely makes plays on the ball. Edmonton is last in the CFL with just nine passes defended, a whopping 11 fewer than second-last Toronto.
That's not the only defensive category where Edmonton is at the bottom of the rankings, with the Elks last in points per game allowed (33.6), net defense (368.3 yards per game), yards per play allowed (7.1), average yards allowed on first down (7.0), and sacks (16).
The Elks also sit at the bottom of the league in net offense (291.1 ypg) and yards per play (5.4). As bad as the Redblacks have been, Edmonton remains the statistically inferior team.
It's also worth mentioning that the layout of Commonwealth Stadium has a buffer between the fans and the game, which doesn't seem to help the home team in the least. As a matter of fact, the Elks haven't won at home since changing their moniker and are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 contests. I'm leaning towards the Redblacks with the points.
Prediction: Redblacks +3 (-105 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Elks have a historically bad defense, but their stats are a bit skewed by a pair of games against BC's offensive juggernaut and a contest versus the Stamps where they allowed an average of 493 yards and 51.3 points per game.
They won't be quite as awful against a Redblacks attack that lacks playmakers and has averaged just 17.8 ppg since losing starting QB Jeremiah Masoli to a season-ending injury in Week 5.
That said, the Elks don't have many weapons of their own besides wideout Kenny Lawler. Quarterback Taylor Cornelius has done a solid job since taking over the offense in Week 6, but he's not a game-breaker, and Edmonton's shoddy offensive line doesn't do him any favors.
These teams combined for just 622 yards of offense last week, and they were most effective when grinding out yards on the ground. Don't expect many big plays in the passing game from either side and back the Under 48.5.
Prediction: Under 48.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
Last week I was all over the Elks at plus money, but this week I'm jumping sides and grabbing the Redblacks as the value play. I think books might be overvaluing the Elks a tad following that victory in Ottawa. Regardless of that outcome, the Elks are simply a terrible team in every phase of the game.
We've also seen no indication that they benefit from home-field advantage, and the Redblacks should be energized by the change at QB. I'll take the underdogs on the moneyline at +140 in what looks like a nice revenge spot.
Pick: Redblacks moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s CFL Redblacks vs. Elks spread and Over/Under picks, you could win $79.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our CFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
