The BC Lions host the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Week 17 of CFL action on Friday night. The Leos clinched a playoff spot with a victory against the Elks last week and enter this showdown on a three-game winning streak. The Riders have dropped three in a row but are still very much in the playoff picture themselves and beat the Lions when these teams previously clashed in Week 11.
CFL odds opened with the Lions as 9.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 49. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Roughriders vs. Lions on September 29.
Roughriders vs Lions best odds
Roughriders vs Lions picks and predictions
The BC Lions were upset 34-29 as 10-point faves when they faced the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Regina last month. Oddsmakers are expecting the Leos to win in a revenge spot here but I think the best angle is betting on another high-scoring shootout.
The Leos have one of the best offenses in the league and have scored at least 34 points in their last three games. Quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. is third in the league in pass efficiency rating (102.8) and second in passing yards (3,547) despite missing almost three full games with an injury.
He could be even better now that his best receiver, Dominique Rhymes, is back on the field after missing six games due to an injury of his own. Rhymes has been banged up for much of this season but the 2022 All-Star should be ready to contribute since he was actually practicing in full last week but was kept out of action for cautionary reasons.
While the Leos offense continues to roll, their defense has been struggling. It's been a tale of two seasons for a stop unit that held foes to just 13.4 ppg through the first seven contests but has seen that number surge to 30.6 ppg over the last seven games.
Now they face a Riders side that is playing pretty well on offense with new quarterback Jake Dolegala showing improvement under center. With the exception of a Week 14 trip to the always-tough venue at IG Field, Dolegala has produced over the last month and the Riders have dropped at least 27 points in four of their last five games.
However, Saskatchewan's defense is last in the CFL with 30.4 ppg allowed with that number bumping up to 34.8 ppg over the last eight contests. And even in that upset victory against the Lions, the Riders were torched for 499 total yards. With both of these squads struggling on defense and the Lions boasting one of the most explosive attacks in the league, I'm taking the Over 49 on Friday night.
My best bet: Over 49
Roughriders vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Lions as 9.5-point home favorites but has ticked up to 10 as of Wednesday morning. The total hit the board at 47.5 and has moved up to 49 after early money came in on the Over.
The Riders have gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their last three games and those losses have largely been due to a defense that has been in a complete freefall. Even in that upset victory against the Lions last month, they were torched for 499 total yards.
The Lions are coming off a 37-29 win against the Elks where they covered the spread as 5.5-point road faves. That said, they are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven contests due to their defense leaking plenty of points.
Roughriders vs Lions trend to know
The Over is 5-1-1 in BC's last seven games while going a sizzling 7-0 in Saskatchewan's previous seven contests. Find more CFL betting trends for Roughriders vs. Lions.
Roughriders vs Lions game info
| Location: | BC Place, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Friday, September 29, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Roughriders vs Lions key injuries
Roughriders: Anthony Lanier DL (Doubtful), Jamal Morrow RB (Out), Peter Godber C (Questionable), Micah Johnson DT (Questionable), Deontai Williams DB (Questionable), Amari Henderson DB (Questionable), Jerald Hawkins OT (Out), Rolan Milligan DB (Out), Miles Brown DT (Out), Trevor Harris QB (Out).
Lions: Sukh Chungh G (Out), Dane Evans QB (Out), David Mackie FB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
