Week 12 in the CFL features a marquee rematch between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and BC Lions.
The Leos have the second-best record in the league and roared to a 28-10 victory last week. However, they also lost superstar quarterback Nathan Rourke to a serious foot injury in the fourth quarter. Can they cover as 3.5-point home faves with a backup QB against a Riders side that desperately needs to turn things around?
We let you know what we think with our best free Roughriders vs. Lions picks and predictions for Saturday, August 26.
Roughriders vs Lions odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Lions installed as 4.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 48. Early money has come in on the Riders and the Under, shifting the line to BC -3.5 or -4 and moving the total down to 46.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Roughriders vs Lions Week 12 predictions
- Prediction: Roughriders +4 (-105)
- Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Roughriders TT Under 21 (-107)
Predictions made on 8/25/2022 at 3 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Roughriders vs Lions game info
• Location: BC Place, Vancouver, BC
• Date: Friday, August 26, 2022
• Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Roughriders at Lions betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Roughriders: Shaq Evans WR (Doubtful), Jamal Morrow (Out), Duke Williams SB (Out), Anthony Lanier DT (Out), Mitchell Picton SB (Out), Justin McInnis SB (Out), Terran Vaughn OT (Out), Charleston Hughes DE (Questionable), Dan Clark C (Out), Godfrey Onyeka DB (Out), Micah Teitz LB (Out).
Lions: Nathan Rourke QB (Out), Jalon Edwards-Cooper DB (Questionable), Woody Baron DT (Out), Steven Richardson DT (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1-1 in the Roughriders last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more CFL betting trends for Roughriders vs. Lions.
Roughriders vs Lions picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Lions have been rolling through the regular season, but they got some devastating news with Nathan Rourke likely done for the year. Rourke had been far-and-away the best QB in the CFL, leading the league in every passing category with massive gaps between him and the runner-up.
With Rourke sidelined, another Canadian passer Michael O'Connor will take over under center. O'Connor comes from a strong pedigree and has looked solid in limited snaps, but he's highly inexperienced and doesn't have Rourke's mobility.
Sure, the Lions have the best receiver corps in the league and a solid offensive line, but O'Connor is still a downgrade as a passer and doesn't release the ball as quickly.
O'Connor's slower release and lack of escapability could be problematic against a lethal Saskatchewan pass rush. The Riders' front-four had easily been the best in the league when they got off to a 4-1 start to the year. However, both starting defensive ends (Pete Robertson and A.C. Leonard) were sidelined by injuries, while tackle Garrett Marino began serving a four-game suspension.
With that line missing so many key players, the Riders' defense took a major step back. With those guys returning to the field last week, they should now be able to recapture their early-season form.
Unfortunately, Saskatchewan's offense is still a disaster. That starts with their awful play up front and some terrible performances from quarterback Cody Fajardo. The veteran has been affected by a lingering knee injury all year and struggles to stretch the field. Fajardo also rarely has any time to throw the ball before Saskatchewan's beat-up offensive line allows a defender to get in his face.
Fajardo was benched after a putrid performance last week (completing eight of 13 passes for 41 yards and a pair of interceptions), and second-year backup Mason Fine played better in relief. Fajardo is listed as the starter for Friday but has admitted that his confidence is shot, and he will likely be on a short leash.
'My confidence is a little bit down right now': Riders' Fajardo will return as starting QB against Lions https://t.co/kf1TELdxdX #CFL #Riders via @britdortCTV
— CFL News (@CFL_News) August 24, 2022
Although BC has massively outplayed Saskatchewan twice within the last month, this feels like a must-win spot for Fajardo and the sliding Riders. Add in the long-term injury to Rourke, and I'll lean towards the underdogs on the spread.
Prediction: Roughriders +4 (-105 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
We mentioned why the Lions won't have their usual offensive success without Rourke, but I don't expect much from the Riders' offense either.
Although wide receiver Kyran Moore returns to the team after a lengthy absence, Shaq Evans still doesn't look ready to suit up. Meanwhile, star wideout Duke Williams and top running back Jamal Morrow have both hit the IL for Saskatchewan as well.
Fajardo needs all the help he can get, and he doesn't have much of it right now. Expect the Riders' attack to once again stall against a stout Lions defense that holds opponents to the lowest yards per play (5.5), yards per game (280.8), and quarterback efficiency rating (78.1) in the league.
Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
My best bet last week was the Under 23.5 for Saskatchewan's team total, which easily cashed with the Riders mustering just 10 points. While that number has ticked down to 21 for the rematch, I still like it to cash, given all the problems the Riders have offensively.
The one bright spot on Saskatchewan's offense had been the play of Morrow, who is now sidelined with a broken hand.
They seem content to give another shot to Fajardo, who has already been shut down twice by the Lions' stingy stop unit (they limited him to 168 passing yards and picked him off once in Week 8).
The play of the Lions' defense has flown a bit under the radar because of how dominant their offense has been, but it's been the best in the league against both the run and pass.
BC should be more than good enough to shut down a Riders' offense that is second-last in the CFL in yards per play (5.7) while ranking dead-last in average yards per first down (5.3) and second-down conversion rate (39.3%).
Pick: Roughriders team total Under 21 (-107 at BetRegal)
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