The Hamilton Tiger-Cats host the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Week 16 of CFL action on Saturday night.
Saskatchewan's playoff position is locked in but the Ti-Cats could need a victory to secure home-field advantage in the Eastern semi-finals. CFL betting lines opened with Hamilton as a 1-point home favorite, but with the Riders likely resting starters, that line has since shifted to Tiger-Cats -4.5.
Here are our best free Roughriders vs. Tiger-Cats picks and predictions for Saturday, November 20, with kickoff at 4 p.m. ET.
Roughriders vs Tiger-Cats odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Roughriders vs Tiger-Cats picks
Picks made on 11/16/2021 at 3 p.m. ET.
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Roughriders vs Tiger-Cats game info
• Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON
• Date: Saturday, November 20, 2021
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Roughriders at Tiger-Cats betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Roughriders: Kyran Moore WR (Out), Terran Vaughn OT (Out), Jon Ryan P (Out), Mike Edem LB (Out), Larry Dean LB (Out), Freddie Bishop III (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Don Jackson RB (Questionable), Darius Ciraco OL (Questionable), Bralon Addison WR (Out), Frankie Williams DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Roughriders' last six games overall. Find more CFL betting trends for Roughriders vs. Tiger-Cats.
Roughriders vs Tiger-Cats predictions
Tiger-Cats -4.5 (-110)
The Tiger-Cats are coming off a 31-12 loss to the Argonauts, which snapped a three-game winning streak. The Ti-Cats actually outgained the Argos 408-327 in that contest and a victory would have given them a shot at claiming first-place in the East. Instead, the Ti-Cats will need to either win on Saturday or hope that the Alouettes lose to the last-place Redblacks on Friday if they want to host the East semi-finals.
They should have an easier time of grabbing the W on Saturday if the 9-4 Roughriders, as expected, rest several key players with home-field advantage in the West semi-finals already wrapped up. The Riders have won four in a row, but after last week's win against Edmonton, Saskatchewan coach Craig Dickenson said, “we’ll try to rest the guys who need rest, whether it be from injuries or wear and tear or just playing some new faces.”
Expect quarterback Cody Fajardo, who has started all 13 games this year, to be one of those guys getting rest, while wide receiver Duke Williams could sit out as well. Williams signed with the team in October after a spell in the NFL and broke out with 146 receiving yards against Edmonton in Week 15. However, he took a bad knock to the knee in the fourth quarter and the Riders might opt to play things safe because they'll need his playmaking ability in the postseason.
The Riders offense struggled even with Fajardo down the stretch, scoring 20 or fewer points in five of their last six games. If they sit Fajardo and others against a Ti-Cats defense that allows the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (7.3) and fewest yards per carry (4.2), they'll have an even tougher time moving the ball.
The Ti-Cats offense, with Jeremiah Masoli at the helm, had been picking up steam until it was derailed last week. Masoli threw two picks in Week 15 against the Argos, but had completed 74.5 percent of his passes for 1,519 yards with nine touchdowns and no interceptions in his previous four contests.
Expect the more motivated Ti-Cats to bounce back with a win and cover at home. That said, if the Alouettes get upset by the Redblacks on Friday, the Ti-Cats would automatically clinch home-field and will likely rest starters themselves. Wait until you're sure of a Montreal victory before backing the Ti-Cats at -4.5.
Under 42.5
Both of these stop-units have impressed this season, with the Ti-Cats ranking second in the league in scoring defense with 18.5 points per game allowed, while the Riders allow 20 ppg. Saskatchewan's front seven has been outstanding, ranking second in the CFL with 40 sacks and holding opponents to a league-low 81 rushing yards per game.
The Ti-Cats might be even better with Ja'Gared Davis bringing the pressure from the outside while Simoni Lawrence and Jovan Santos-Knox are the best linebacker duo in the game. Combine that with a Saskatchewan offense that could be littered with backups and you have all the ingredients for an Under.
Trends also point in that direction, with the Ti-Cats 4-12 O/U in their last 16 games and the Under cashing in five of the Riders' previous six contests. With the Under also going 5-1 in the last six meetings, back it again.
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