The Calgary Stampeders face off against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in Week 5 of CFL action on Friday night. The Stamps are off to a 1-2 start to the season and are coming off a bye while the Bombers are 3-1 after shutting down the Alouettes on the road last weekend.
CFL betting odds hit the board with the Bombers as 8.5-point home favorites with that spread slimming to -7.5 or -8. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers on July 7.
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers best odds
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers picks and predictions
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers defense has looked vulnerable this season and ranks seventh in the league in opponent yards per play (6.5). While the Bombers are coming off a game where they held the Alouettes to just three points they gave up 363 yards in that contest and messy weather suppressed scoring for both sides.
The Blue Bombers have given up at least 27 points in each of their first three games, getting shredded by the Lions in Week 3 and giving up 413 passing yards to Trevor Harris in Week 2.
The Calgary Stampeders offense struggled in Week 1 against the Lions but we have since seen how stingy that BC stop unit can be. The Stamps bounced back with 426 yards and 26 points in Week 2 and then had another 26-point performance a week later while totaling 410 yards.
Calgary quarterback Jake Maier looked terrible in the season opener but the Leos were also able to shut down Bombers MOP passer Zach Collaros a couple of weeks ago. Maier was much more effective over the last two weeks averaging 310 passing yards per game while throwing for four touchdowns.
Maier also has a strong track record against the Bombers, putting together some solid starts against them over the last few years.
While last year's CFL-leading rusher Ka'Deem Carey continues to be sidelined by an injury, backup running back Dedrick Mills has looked terrific and Calgary's offensive line is also starting to gel after replacing both starting tackles in the offseason. The Stamps might not necessarily torch the Bombers but they'll be well prepared coming off a bye and should be able to eclipse their modest team total on Friday.
My best bet: Stampeders Team Total Over 17.5 (-112 at BetRegal)
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers same-game parlay
Stampeders Team Total Over 18.5
Reggie Begelton Over 57.5 receiving yards
Dedrick Mills Over 59.5 rushing yards
The Stamps team total is a bit higher at FanDuel than at bet365 and BetRegal but you are able to use it with a parlay that makes plenty of sense if you're fading Winnipeg's defense.
Begelton had a career-high 1,444 receiving yards with the Stamps in 2019 before missing most of the 2021 season due to being on the practice squad for the Packers. He had 957 receiving yards last year and reeled in eight catches for 141 yards in Week 2. Begelton missed Week 3 with a rib injury but will be back in the lineup on Friday after practicing all week.
Calgary is thin at wide receiver with Luther Hakunavanhu, Malik Henry, and Jalen Philpot all on the IL. That should make it even more likely that Maier will target Begelton and Tre Odoms-Dukes in the passing game.
The Stamps are also banged up at running back with Carey and backup Peyton Logan sidelined with injuries. However, Mills has been fantastic rushing for 102 yards on 19 carries in Week 2 and rumbling for 74 yards on 14 carries in Week 3.
Mills rushed for 459 yards on just 67 carries as Calgary's third-string RB last year and he should have success against a Bombers defense that allows 5.2 yards per rush attempt.
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Stampeders vs Blue Bombers spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Bombers at -8.5 but has shortened to as low as -7.5. Given that the Bombers are still the Grey Cup favorites at +210 while the Stamps are seventh on the futures board at +1,400, that spread will likely not hit 7.
The Bombers began the year by cruising to a pair of victories where they dropped more than 40 points against the Ticats and Riders. They ended up getting clobbered at home by the Lions in Week 3 but bounced back last week to grind out a 17-3 victory in Montreal.
The Stamps lost 25-15 to the Lions in their season opener but beat the Redblacks 26-15 on the road in Week 2. They fell to the Riders in overtime as 2-point home favorites in Week 3 before enjoying their first bye of the season.
The total has stayed steady at 46.5 although both teams have recently been cashing Unders. The Under is 4-1 in Calgary's last five games while going 5-2 in Winnipeg's previous seven contests.
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers trend to know
The Stampeders are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers.
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | IG Field, Winnipeg, MB |
| Date: | Friday, July 7, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers key injuries
Stampeders: Caleb Benenoch OT (Out), Luther Hakunavanhu WR (Out), Ka'Deem Carey RB (Out), Malik Henry WR (Out), Jalen Philpot WR (Out), Peyton Logan RB (Out).
Blue Bombers: Carlton Agudosi WR (Out), Shayne Gauthier LB (Out), Mike Miller FB (Out), Jamal Parker DB (Out), Winston Rose DB (Out), Kyrie Wilson LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
