Week 6 in the CFL is headlined by a Friday night matchup between the Calgary Stampeders and Winnipeg Blue Bombers. These are the last two unbeaten teams in the CFL and oddsmakers expect the Stamps to lose their first game of the year, with CFL betting lines opening with the Bombers as 4-point home favorites.
Here are our best free CFL betting picks and predictions for Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers on July 15.
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers odds
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Stampeders vs Blue Bombers Week 6 predictions
- Prediction: Blue Bombers -3.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 47.5 (-110)
- Best bet: 1Q Blue Bombers -0.5 (-110)
Predictions made on 7/13/2022 at 2 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers game info
• Location: Investors Group Field, Winnipeg, MB
• Date: Friday, July 15, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Stampeders at Blue Bombers betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Stampeders: Richie Sindani WR (Out), Cameron Judge LB (Questionable), Jonathan Moxey DB (Questionable), Branden Dozier DB (Out), Javien Elliott DB (Out), Kobe Williams DB (Out).
Blue Bombers: Jackson Jeffcoat DE (Probable), Michael Couture C (Out), Nic Demski WR (Out), Brandon Alexander DB (Out), Kyrie Wilson LB (Out), Mercy Maston LB (Out), Jesse Briggs LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 9-2 in the Blue Bombers' last 11 home games. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Blue Bombers.
Stampeders vs Blue Bombers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
After three close wins to begin the year, the Stampeders blew out the Elks 49-6 last Thursday to improve to 4-0. Calgary outgained Edmonton 470-287 and scored 30 unanswered points on a wet and windy evening at Commonwealth Stadium.
The Blue Bombers have a similar narrative with three tight victories in their first four games — followed by their most impressive win of the season last Saturday — when they traveled to BC on a short week and dismantled the Lions 43-22. It was easily the best offensive performance of the year for the Bombers, who rolled up 429 yards of offense and added another 191 yards on kick and punt returns.
Winnipeg's defense also did a terrific job of keeping Lions' quarterback Nathan Rourke in check and ended up with three interceptions and a fumble recovery.
The Bombers' aerial attack and secondary were big question marks in the first few weeks, but both stepped up big time against BC. Reigning CFL Most Outstanding Player, Zach Collaros, had his best game of the year, completing 76.7% of his passes for 288 yards and three scores while their defense lined up and locked down the Lions' talented receivers.
That's a positive sign as they get ready to take on two-time MOP winner, Bo Levi Mitchell, and a Calgary passing attack that averages 298.8 yards per game. Collaros should also be able to take advantage of a banged-up Calgary secondary that has been playing musical chairs all year.
Generally speaking, takeaways (especially fumbles forced and recovered) are not a predictive stat from game to game since luck and sloppy execution from opponents play such a big role. However, after more than two seasons of the Bombers consistently coming away with crucial turnovers, it's safe to say that this is a reliable strength of their stop unit.
I faded Winnipeg last week, but I learned my lesson and am backing them in the always tough environment at IG Field.
Prediction: Blue Bombers -3.5 (-110 at BetVictor)
Over/Under analysis
Both of these squads dropped more than 40 points last week, but they also played extremely well on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind that a large chunk of Winnipeg's scoring success against BC was due to a pair of huge returns by Janarion Grant as well as an interception returned to the Lions' 15-yard line.
The Stamps have been very solid on their kick coverage units and haven't allowed a single big play in the return game all season.
The Bombers' offense wasn't very explosive in their first four games of the year, and while Calgary's offense has looked terrific at times, it won't be easy to move the ball against a Winnipeg defense that limits foes to just 17 points per game.
We saw how improved the Bombers' secondary looked last week when it contained BC's high-flying passing game, and you know it will be dialed in for the challenge of Bo Levi Mitchell.
These teams also had a pair of very low-scoring contests last year, combining for 34 points in Week 4 and totaling 25 points in Week 16 (albeit with Collaros sitting out the second half).
After opening up the offensive playbooks last week, I'm expecting a more conservative game plan on Friday and taking the Under.
Prediction: Under 47.5 (-110 William Hill)
Best bet
The Stampeders' win last week was the first time this year that they didn't go into halftime with a deficit. Even in that contest, Mitchell and the offense took time to get going with them coming away with just a pair of field goals through the first 25 minutes of the game.
In their first three games of the season, the Stamps had an average first-half scoring margin of minus 11.3 points per game and averaged just 2.3 ppg in the opening quarter.
If Mitchell and co. had a tough time getting off to good starts against defenses like the Als and Elks, they will likely start slow at IG Field vs. this stout Bombers D.
Winnipeg wasted no time running up the score on the Lions, jumping out to a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter — and had a 14-0 advantage on the Argos after 15 minutes in the previous week. I'm backing the Bombers to jump out to another early lead.
Pick: Blue Bombers first-quarter spread -0.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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