Week 6 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a showdown in Regina between the Calgary Stampeders and Saskatchewan Roughriders. These teams faced off in Calgary three weeks ago, with the Riders edging the Stamps in overtime.
Oddsmakers expect another close game between these West Division foes, with CFL betting lines opening with Saskatchewan as a 3.5-point home favorite before shortening to -1.5. Here are my best free Stampeders vs Roughriders CFL picks and predictions for July 15.
Stampeders vs Roughriders best odds
Stampeders vs Roughriders picks and predictions
When 2022 CFL leading rusher Ka'Deem Carey ended up on the six-game IL after Week 1, there was some concern in Calgary. Those fears have been quashed by Dedrick Mills, who beat out the talented Peyton Logan for the starting job and has been phenomenal.
Mills rushed for 459 yards on just 67 carries last season as Calgary's third-string back behind Carey and Logan. The Nebraska product always seems to run well when called upon, and he's now the bell-cow for the Stampeders with Logan joining Carey on the IL.
Mills had 14 carries for 74 yards against the Riders in Week 3, and that was actually his least productive performance of the season since he broke the 100-yard mark in Week 2 and rushed for 97 yards versus the Bombers last week.
The Riders are coming off a game against the Elks where they surrendered 143 yards on the ground, and their defensive line could be missing two of its best run-stuffers with Anthony Lanier ruled out and Charbel Dabire listed as questionable for Saturday.
The previous game between these teams was extremely close, and we've got the spread at nearly a pick'em for Saturday's contest. With another tight game likely in the works, expect the Stamps to lean on Mills and the ground game to take pressure off struggling quarterback Jake Maier.
My best bet: Dedrick Mills Over 64.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Stampeders vs Roughriders same-game parlay
Dedrick Mills Over 64.5 rushing yards
Stampeders moneyline
Tevin Jones Over 60.5 receiving yards
It's tough to handicap this matchup on the spread since both teams have been so similar statistically and played in such a close back-and-forth contest just three weeks ago. That said, if Mills has another big game (as I expect him to), it's even more likely that the Stamps will be able to eke out a victory here.
Keep in mind that they have played well at Mosaic Stadium in recent years and that injuries are starting to pile up for the Riders across multiple position groups. One area which has been decimated by injuries is wide receiver, with the Riders missing a few projected starters.
However, Tevin Jones has stepped up becoming one of Trevor Harris' favorite targets. Jones missed the season opener with a knee injury but exploded for 121 receiving yards in Week 2 before racking up 75 yards and a score against the Stamps in Week 3. While he was held just below this number last week, he still had 60 yards. He should be able to find his spots against a Calgary secondary that limits big plays but does allow plenty of catches underneath.
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Stampeders vs Roughriders spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Riders installed as 3.5-point home favorites but has moved through the key number of three, and now sits at just -1.5. While the spread has shifted, the total has remained steady at 44.5.
The Riders are 3-1, but two of those victories came against the last-place Elks, and they barely won those contests. Their other victory came against the Stamps at McMahon Stadium in Week 3 when they held on to win after Maier threw an endzone interception (his third pick of the game) in double overtime.
Maier looks like a bust in his first season as Calgary's No. 1 QB despite being productive in several spot starts over the last few years. He has completed 57.4% of his passes for 907 yards with a pair of touchdowns against six interceptions in four games this year. He's been especially brutal on deep throws, completing just 2-of-14 passes with a depth of 20 or more yards.
Saskatchewan has gotten far better play from new QB Trevor Harris. The former Grey Cup winner has completed 66.2% of his passes for 1,159 yards and six scores despite playing behind a shaky line and missing several starting wideouts.
The Stampeders have also gotten uneven play from their offensive line and been hit hard by injuries at wide receiver. They are just 1-3 straight up and against the spread, although they've faced tougher competition than the Riders with two of Calgary's defeats coming against the Bombers and Lions.
Stampeders vs Roughriders trend to know
The Stampeders are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games while going 6-2 ATS in their previous eight trips to Mosaic Stadium. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Roughriders.
Stampeders vs Roughriders game info
| Location: | Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK |
| Date: | Saturday, July 15, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Stampeders vs Roughriders key injuries
Stampeders: Hugh Thornton OL (Out), Malik Henry WR (Out), Ka'Deem Carey RB (Out), Peyton Logan RB (Out), Jalen Philpot WR (Out), Nick Taylor DB (Out).
Roughriders: Jake Wieneke WR (Out), Anthony Lanier II DL (Out), Brandon Council LT (Out), Charbel Dabire DT (Questionable), Peter Godber C (Out), Frankie Hickson RB (Questionable), Rolan Milligan Jr. DB (Out), Kian Schaffer-Baker (Out), Derel Walker WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
