Week 20 in the CFL kicks off on Friday night with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats hosting the Calgary Stampeders at Tim Hortons Field.
It isn't easy to handicap a late-season clash between a pair of teams already eliminated from the playoffs but there are a few reasons I'm betting on plenty of points with my Stampeders vs. Tiger-Cats predictions.
Here are my best free CFL picks for this clash on October 18.
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats prediction
My best bet
Over 51.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Playoff football usually sees increased defensive intensity so this matchup could be the opposite with both teams giving less than full effort when it comes to tackling. That could lead to a shootout since the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are last in the CFL in points allowed per game (31.3) while the Calgary Stampeders are second-last (29.6).
Much has been made of the Ticats adding former Elks head coach Chris Jones as their defensive play-caller in mid-August, but they've allowed 27.7 points and 403.5 yards per game since he took over.
The Stamps have been terrible but one guy with something to play for is Matt Shiltz, who was Hamilton's backup quarterback the last two years. Shiltz made his first start with Calgary last week and was solid, completing 18 of 33 passes for 215 yards while adding another 64 on the ground. The 31-year-old has been a long-time backup QB and will do his best to impress the Calgary brass to earn a chance at the starting job next year.
Regardless of who starts at QB for Hamilton between Bo Levi Mitchell and Taylor Powell, they'll be motivated to push the ball downfield. The 34-year-old Mitchell leads the CFL in passing yards (4,576) and wants to prove he's still an elite QB while Powell is eager to earn a shot at starting in the future.
Hamilton's offense has been explosive all year but was often held back by sloppy turnovers. With the Ticats doing a much better job of holding on to the ball lately, they scored 30+ points in four straight games in September before struggling against Winnipeg's top-rated defense in their last contest.
The Tabbies lead the league in yards per game (387.1) and yards per play (6.88) and should be able to move the ball against a Stamps defense that is last in the league in yards allowed per play (7.16).
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 51.5
Stampeders +4.5
I liked the Tiger-Cats at -2.5 when this line opened but early money has come in on them, pushing this line to -4.5, and I'm not willing to lay that many points. Keep in mind that the Ticats have just two wins by more than a field goal this year and they were outgained in one of those.
I already mentioned Hamilton's struggling stop unit but Calgary has fared even worse, ranking last in the league in run defense (allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game on 6.6 yards per carry) and third-last in opponent pass efficiency (100.1). The Ticats lead the league in yards per game (387.1) and yards per play (6.88) and should be able to move the ball here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats odds
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats live odds
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats opening odds
- Spread: Calgary +2.5 | Hamilton -4.5
- Moneyline: Calgary +120 | Hamilton -140
- Over/Under: Over 51 | Under 51
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Stampeders are 0-7-1 straight up and 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games.
- The Ticats entered September with a 2-9 record but have won four of their last five games while going 5-1 ATS in their previous six.
- The Stamps have gone 0-7 on the road with an average scoring margin of -13.7 ppg.
- Shiltz completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,556 yards and seven touchdowns with five interceptions with Hamilton last year.
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats trend
The Over is 5-2 in Calgary's last seven games while cashing in four of Hamilton's previous five contests. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Tiger-Cats.
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 10-18-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Stampeders: Jamal Peters DB (Out), Shemar Bridges WR (Out), Kyle Wilson LB (Questionable), Quinton Barrow RT (Out), Joel Figueroa LT (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Ishmael Hyman WR (Out), Branden Dozier S (Out), Malik Henry WR (Out), Charles Wiley DE (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
