Week 17 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a clash between the Calgary Stampeders and Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Thes two clubs have been two of the biggest disappointments in the league this season, but the Ticats could clinch a playoff spot with a win and a little bit of help. On the other hand, the Stamps are on the verge of missing the postseason for the first time since 2004.
CFL odds opened with the Ticats installed as 1.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under listed at 47.5. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Stampeders vs. Tiger-Cats on September 30.
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats best odds
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats picks and predictions
Poor decision-making from Calgary Stampeders quarterback Jake Maier has been a big reason why they've struggled this season. That said, while Maier has tossed way too many picks, he's also thrown for plenty of yards, leading the CFL with 3,581 through the air.
That number is all the more impressive when you consider that Maier threw for just 470 yards in a three-game span against the top three teams in the CFL last month. Maier has been torching the below-average defenses in the league, and this week he gets to face a Tabbies stop unit that surrenders 275.2 passing yards per game and ranks second-last in the CFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (9.8).
While the Hamilton Tiger-Cats once boasted one of the top secondaries in the league for the last few years, they let three starting defensive backs (all former All-Stars) depart in free agency during the offseason. That has led to a massive decline for the Tabbies in the back end, an issue that has been made even worse with their best remaining DB Tunde Adeleke on the six-game IL.
With Maier having successfully thrown for more than 270 yards in three of his last four games, take the Over 255.5 on his Saturday passing total.
My best bet: Jake Maier Over 255.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay
Jake Maier Over 255.5 passing yards (-114)
James Butler Over 61.5 rushing yards (-114)
Stampeders +1.5 (-110)
Although Ticats running back James Butler was held to 32 yards on 13 carries against the Argos last week, he now faces a Stamps defense that surrenders 5.9 yards per carry. Prior to being bottled up last week, Butler had rushed for at least 63 yards in four of his previous five games and new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich has made an effort to feed him the ball.
Taking the Over on Maier's passing yards and Butler's rushing yards makes a nice multiplier when combined with the spread play on the Stamps. With such a short spread in this contest, we should get a competitive contest that should result in a fairly neutral game script. The Stamps are also more than capable of covering the spread here when you consider that they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
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Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
The Ticats opened as 2-point home favorites before slimming to as low as -1, while the O/U has stayed steady at 47.5. They are coming off a 29-14 loss to an Argonauts team that was resting key starters.
Prior to that defeat, the Ticats had gone 3-1 straight up and ATS in their previous four games which included upset victories against the Lions and Blue Bombers. Rookie QB Taylor Powell has made strides under Milanovic, but the Ticats offense is still a work in progress and their defense continues to struggle.
Turnovers have been a big reason why the Stamps just 4-10 SU, but injuries and poor play on special teams have also been issues. They are coming off a 28-11 loss at home to the Alouettes and have lost five of their last six games. That said, Calgary has covered the spread in four of its last five contests.
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats trend to know
The Stamps are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games on the road while the Ticats are 1-4 ATS in their previous five contests at home. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Tiger-Cats.
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, September 30, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Stampeders vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Stampeders: Ka’Deem Carey RB (Questionable), Sean McEwen C (Questionable), Malik Henry WR(Out), Peyton Logan RB(Out), Jalen Philpot WR(Out), Titus Wall DB(Out), James Vaughters DE(Out), Hugh Thornton OT(Out), Bryce Bell OT (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Ted Laurent DT (Out), Tunde Adeleke DB(Out), Joel Figueroa LT(Out), Bo Levi Mitchell QB(Out), Duke Williams WR(Out), Kyle Wilson LB(Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
