UFC betting is back on the odds board with a big Saturday night card for UFC 253 from Fight Island in the United Arab Emirates. It’s another fanless event, headlined by Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa in a middleweight title bout.
The SuperBook at Westgate’s Eric Osterman talked UFC 253 line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this action report on UFC 253 betting, with sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement up through the main card’s 10 p.m. ET Saturday start.
Who are people betting to win Adesanya vs Costa?
UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With the main card underway, BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said the main event looms large tonight. "We're taking a lot of bets. We're stuck pretty good, mid-five-figures, on the favorite," Shelton said, alluding to Adesanya, currently -200 to Costa's +165. "We're gonna need Costa. All the parlays are going to the favorite."
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Two hours out from the start of the five-fight main card, capped by the middleweight title bout atop that card, Adesanya is up to -180 at Circa Sports, with Costa +155. "Decent two-way action coming in today. Sharp opinion on both sides," Circa Sports risk supervisor and MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas said. "The house will still need Costa decent by post."
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Adesanya moved from -160 to -185 at PointsBet USA, and the betting splits bear out that move. The favorite is taking 79 percent of tickets and 74 percent of money against Costa (+146).
UPDATE 4:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Adesanya is up to -186 at DraftKings, with Costa at +151. The favorite is taking 62 percent of bets and 65 percent of money, a few hours out from the start of the main event.
UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Although ticket count at BetMGM is almost even, with 52 percent of bets on Adesanya, the -182 favorite is getting 77.7 percent of the handle. Costa is a +150 underdog.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Circa Sports risk supervisor and MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened Adesanya -130 on July 20.
"It's pretty much been one-way traffic ever since," Kalikas said, noting Adesanya is now -170 and Costs +150. "Adesanya is dominating the ticket count, and most of the bigger bets are coming in his way, as well. Adesanya is by far the more proven fighter and now considered to be an elite-level champion in most people's minds, so I'm not really surprised by the action coming in his way.
"That said, Costa is a problematic matchup for Adesanya and more than capable of pulling off the upset here. I think people are underestimating how good Costa really is, and betting against him could be costly."
Kalikas said that bet limits at Circa increase to $25,000 on Saturday, and he expects "some crazy action" and very good handle by fight time.
"The house will more than likely need Costa to pull off the upset win," Kalikas said.
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Adesanya opened -135 at The SuperBook and got bet up to -170, with Costa +150, and the betting has leveled off at that point.
“We got some sharp money on Adesanya early, but everything since then has been two-way from the public,” Osterman said. “We have sharp money on the round total Over 2.5. That opened -110, and now the Over is -135. We have a small need on Costa and the Under.”
Who are people betting to win Reyes vs Blachowicz?
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Dominick Reyes dialed back to -245 today at Circa Sports, and Jan Blachowicz is +210. "Action flowing in on the underdog today, sharp and public," Kalikas said. "Ticket count is much more even at this point, and we now have a need for a Reyes victory."
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Dominick Reyes opened -250 at PointsBet USA and is now -270, drawing 86 percent of bets and 88 percent of dollars against Jan Blachowicz (+205).
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Dominick Reyes is a -265 favorite at DraftKings, and he's taking 72 percent of bets and 74 percent of dollars against Jan Blachowicz (+215).
UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The +230 underdog Jan Blachowicz is the play at BetMGM so far, attracting 58 percent of tickets and 70 percent of money against solid -286 chalk Dominick Reyes.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Circa Sports opened at Dominick Reyes -245, and Reyes is now up to -265, with Jan Blachowicz +225. "The line has gradually increased with an overall accumulation of action and parlay liability coming in Reyes' way," Kalikas said. "Nothing really notable or significant to report at the moment. The market seems to be on the rise, and I expect us to need the 'dog here for a smaller amount by post. This fight is kind of flying under the radar, but it should be a really good title scrap."
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Dominick Reyes opened -240 and is up to -275 at The SuperBook, with Jan Blachowicz a +235 underdog.
“We have some good two-way on the side. The line has mostly gone up because we are keeping to the market,” Osterman said. “I expect to get a lot of public money on Reyes on fight day. He will be popular in parlays.”
Who are people betting to win Kara-France vs Royval?
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kai Kara-France is -210 and Royval +280 at Circa Sports. "Small two-way action so far today," Kalikas said. "We'll need the 'dog at post for a small decision."
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kai Kara-France moved from -210 to -225 at PointsBet USA and is attracting 87 percent of tickets and 77 percent of money bet against Brandon Royval (+160).
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kai Kara-France is a -230 favorite today at DraftKings, though there is money on both Kara-France and Brandon Royval (+180). Sixty percent of bets and 57 percent of money are on Kara-France.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Kai Kara-France opened -180 at Circa Sports on Sept. 1 and is now up to -220, with Brandon Royval +190. "Early action came in Kara-France's way. Ticket count and money both favoring Kara-France right now," Kalikas said. "Royval is more than game and will make this a very good fight. We'll more than likely the need 'dog to get it done for us here, as well."
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Kai Kara-France is another favorite on the move at The SuperBook, jumping from -200 to -240, with Brandon Royval at +200.
“We haven't seen too much action on straight bets, but we do have some decent parlay liability on Kara-France,” Osterman said of early action at The SuperBook.
Other UFC 253 betting action
UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As noted earlier, BetMGM Nevada has a $50,000 two-leg parlay of Ludovit Klein -125 vs. Shane Young (win)/Sijara Eubanks +160 vs. Ketlen Vieira. If Eubanks wins in the upcoming bout, the parlay bettor wins $184,000. Further, BetMGM's Scott Shelton said there are far more straight-bet dollars and tickets on Eubanks. "We need Vieira to win, to get rid of that parlay. We're a six-figure loser to Eubanks."
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Circa Sports has Aleksa Camur -150/William Knight +130, which is where the moneyline was Thursday, after Camur opened -190. "Camur is getting the heavier action today, (reducing) our overall need to a small decision his way. Sharps on both sides of this one, as well."
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Ketlen Vieira is landing 64 percent of bets and 81 percent of money against Sijara Eubanks at PointsBet USA, with Vieira moving from -170 to -195 in the process.
UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: There's some interesting action on the women's bantamweight bout between Ketlen Vieira and Sijara Eubanks. At BetMGM, +160 underdog Eubanks is part of a two-leg parlay, along with Ludovit Klein (-125 vs. Shane Young), with a customer betting $50,000, for a potential win of $184,000. At DraftKings, -200 favorite Vieira is landing 68 percent of tickets and 76 percent of money.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: UFC 253 has 11 bouts overall, and Kalikas drilled down on one of the earliest of those bouts: William Knight vs. Aleksa Camur. This fight went on the board Sept. 19 with Camur -190, and he's closed in to -150, with Knight +130. "We've seen steady underdog action from the start. The explosive finisher Knight is getting tons of respect from public and sharp players," Kalikas said. "Camur should be the more well-rounded fighter and has a significant edge on the ground, but the knockout power of the 'dog seems to be getting the most respect from the bettors. We'll need Camur to come through by post."
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