The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards are tonight, returning to their regularly scheduled slot on the calendar after the last iteration got delayed to January.
After shows like Succession, Better Call Saul, and Ted Lasso either ended or hit a hiatus, it's a different slate of television shows up for awards.
Let's break down the key categories for the 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards.
Odds to win Outstanding Drama Series
| Series |  |
|---|---|
| Shogun | -1,000 |
| The Crown | +900 |
| Slow Horses | +1,400 |
| The Morning Show | +2,200 |
| Fallout | +2,800 |
| The Gilded Age | +3,500 |
| Mr. and Mrs. Smith | +3,500 |
| 3 Body Problem | +3,500 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Drama Series
Succession walked off into the sunset as a winner following its final season, giving way to a new list of challengers. FX's Shogun seems poised to pick up the mantle after a beloved first season. It's the second time James Clavell's novel of the same name has been adapted for television, previously as a miniseries in 1980. Meanwhile, season six of The Crown and season four of Slow Horses are the only other nominees with odds better than 20/1. .
Odds to win Outstanding Comedy Series
| Series | |
|---|---|
| The Bear | -1,000 |
| Hacks | +700 |
| Abbott Elementary | +1,400 |
| Curb Your Enthusiasm | +2,200 |
| Only Murders in the Building | +2,800 |
| What We Do in the Shadows | +4,000 |
| Reservation Dogs | +4,000 |
| Palm Royale | +4,000 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Comedy Series
The Bear more or less swept the awards scene in January and appears poised for a similar run after its third season. While plenty of digital ink has been spilled on whether it actually belongs in comedy (it toes the line very well) and how the third season measures up with the previous two iterations, it seems highly unlikely that anything will step up to knock it off the mountain.
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actor (Drama)
| Actor (Series) | |
|---|---|
| Hiroyuki Sanada (Shogun) | -1,100 |
| Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) | +650 |
| Dominic West (The Crown) | +1,000 |
| Donald Glover (Mr. and Mrs. Smith) | +2,000 |
| Idris Elba (Hijack) | +3,500 |
| Walton Goggins (Fallout) | +4,000 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Lead Actor (Drama)
Hiroyuki Sanada will likely win this, especially if Shogun winds up going on a run. This is, perhaps surprisingly, Gary Oldman's second-ever Emmy nomination (and Slow Horses has been ignored until this year). The last time Oldman was nominated was as a guest actor in a comedy for his 2001 appearance in Friends. Nevertheless, Sanada's winning this.
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actress (Drama)
| Actress (Series) | |
|---|---|
| Anna Sawai (Shogun) | -1,400 |
| Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show) | +900 |
| Imelda Staunton (The Crown) | +900 |
| Maya Erskine (Mr. and Mrs. Smith) | +1,600 |
| Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age) | +2,500 |
| Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show) | +2,800 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Lead Actress (Drama)
Like with actor and drama series, Shogun is atop the board in lead actress, with Anna Sawai the leader in the clubhouse. Yes, The Morning Show has a ton of nominations, but despite being the most-watched Apple TV+ show it isn't exactly a beloved program, and was far from critically acclaimed. I doubt it wins much, and neither Aniston nor Witherspoon will play spoiler here.
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actor (Comedy)
| Actor (Series) | |
|---|---|
| Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) | -900 |
| Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) | +700 |
| D'Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs) | +1,600 |
| Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows) | +1,800 |
| Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) | +2,000 |
| Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm) | +2,000 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Lead Actor (Comedy)
Jeremy Allen White was part of The Bear wave last winter and he is going to pull off the rare feat of winning the Emmy twice in one year for the same role. That said, there isn't a shortage of worthy rivals in this category as all nominees are excellent in their roles. I'm at least somewhat surprised by Larry David having the longest odds, since this was officially the final season of Curb Your Enthusiasm, but that kind of "it's time" award is less frequent nowadays.
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actress (Comedy)
| Actress (Series) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jean Smart (Hacks) | -650 |
| Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) | +500 |
| Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) | +1,400 |
| Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale) | +2,500 |
| Maya Rudolph (Loot) | +3,500 |
| Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) | +3,500 |
Favorite to win Outstanding Lead Actress (Comedy)
Quinta Brunson could join White as a two-time winner in the same calendar year, but the timing of Hacks' return makes that less likely. Smart has won this award twice already for her work on Hacks and is poised to win for a third time. Edebiri has moved from supporting to lead and could pull off the upset if The Bear is sweeping the board. Of all the other nominees, she is the most likely to win if Smart doesn't.
