The 96th Academy Awards are here and we're taking a look at the Oscars odds for the final slate of films in contention to be honored.
Best Picture is the crown jewel of all Oscars, and the field was wide this year after a fantastic 2023 release calendar. Despite the overall high quality of films, one movie stands above the rest in terms of its current betting odds even with the field narrowed to 10.
Let's break down the Best Picture odds race with the 2024 Academy Awards set for Sunday, March 10.
We're looking at other major categories as well, with Best Actor predictions and Best Actress predictions on tap.
Finally, don't forget to take advantage of our free printable 2024 Oscars ballot for your home contests!
2024 Oscars Best Picture odds
| Film |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | -5,000 | -5,000 |
| Poor Things | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| The Zone of Interest | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| The Holdovers | +3,500 | +2,500 |
| Barbie | +3,500 | +5,000 |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | +4,000 | +10,000 |
| Anatomy of a Fall | +5,000 | +4,000 |
| American Fiction | +8,000 | +8,000 |
| Past Lives | +10,000 | +15,000 |
| Maestro | +15,000 | +15,000 |
Odds as of March 10, 2024.
Oppenheimer (-5,000)
Christopher Nolan's first film since 2020's Tenet hit theaters on July 21 to incredible hype and, despite being a three-hour historical epic, it made a ton of money (nearly $1 billion worldwide) during its theatrical run before physical copies flew off the shelves just in time for Christmas. And now, it's leading the way with a whopping 13 nominations at the 2024 Academy Awards.
While it shared attention with Barbie (+5,000), it is a runaway hit on its own as the Barbenheimer meme turned into an almost unprecedented box office success story for the pair. Oppenheimer was trading at +600 to win Best Picture as recently as October, and its theatrical release combined with nearly universal critical acclaim has helped shorten its odds ever since. Now, it looks like an unstoppable behemoth.
Nolan's film is the true story of J. Robert Oppenheimer (Cillian Murphy) — adapted from the book "American Prometheus" by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin — and the United States' creation of the atomic bomb and the Manhattan Project during World War II.
Nolan has assembled a massive cast of players, including Murphy, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Emily Blunt, Florence Pugh, Josh Hartnett, and a host of others. It's Nolan's second foray into depicting a World War II-set story on screen after 2017's Dunkirk, which was nominated for eight Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography, and Best Film Editing. It won three, including the two sound categories and Film Editing.
Poor Things (+2,000)
The Golden Globes likely improved Poor Things' status as it won Best Picture - Musical or Comedy and Emma Stone won Best Actress in that same designation.
Yorgos Lanthimos' fantasy/sci-fi adaptation of Alasdair Gray's 1992 novel has been met with widespread critical acclaim — though it does have its detractors — and is an absurdist riff on Frankenstein. It features a fantastic ensemble cast in support of Stone, including Mark Ruffalo, Willem Dafoe, Ramy Youssef, and Christopher Abbott.
While winning the Academy's top prize still seems like a long shot, Poor Things at least appears to have the best chance to usurp Oppenheimer among the other contenders.
The Holdovers (+2,500)
Alexander Payne's first film since Downsizing in 2017, The Holdovers is a throwback to 1970s dramedies from the likes of Hal Ashby (Harold & Maude, The Last Detail). It even takes place in the early 70s over a Christmas holiday break at a New England private school where one teenager (played by newcomer Dominic Sessa) stays behind with a mercurial teacher played by Paul Giamatti.
It could have come off as nothing more than pure pastiche, but its melancholy core combined with genuine belly laughs makes it a rich, human film. And it has been lauded by critics and audiences alike since its late-autumn release.
Prediction: Oppenheimer (-5,000)
There is no sense in betting against chalk here. Killers of the Flower Moon seemed like the movie that stood the best chance at taking the top prize but after its poor showing at the Globes, it looks like Lily Gladstone might be the only one with a legitimate shot at one of the big-ticket awards.
Oppenheimer operates in a similar register to, say, Titanic. Obviously, not in terms of the romance, but it is a big-budget historical epic that made a bazillion dollars and was helmed by one of the most acclaimed directors working today. It combines mainstream and artistic integrity and with the Oscars' waning popularity in recent years as a cultural touchstone, celebrating the movie everyone saw that was almost universally adored could go a long way toward upping its cultural cache.
Using that same logic, however, Barbie could represent some value at +6,600. It made more money than Oppenheimer and was similarly celebrated as a unique, creative way of bringing that brand to the screen without seeming (entirely) like a two-hour advertisement for a toy.
Sometimes, however, a movie gains momentum at the right time. Even last year, Everything Everywhere All at Once did not seem to be an Oscars movie but a massive groundswell of support in the fall and winter pushed it to become a wrecking ball. While no movie seems to have the same engine chugging it along this year, and none seems capable of catching Nolan's epic, Anatomy of a Fall was not considered a lock to even get a nomination early last fall but good word of mouth and critical acclaim has helped it catch fire. It still won't win, but it has a potential narrative behind it and I wouldn't be shocked if we see its odds shorten a bit before the ceremony.
