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Is there any value on betting Clottley (vs Cotto)?

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Posted: #1
Is there enough value for Clottley at +250 for the risk?
 
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Posted: #2
First off, most books are at +280. . .

Second, I think the line will rise if anything, so I wouldn't rush into it

Third, yes I think there's value, Clottey is going to be a tough out.  Will he win?  Probably not, but I don't think he's going to get whitewashed either, and will have some good looking moments in this fight.  With Cotto's out of the ring issues (trainer) there's always a chance that has really affected him in this fight as well.  We also don't know how he's going to be post Margarito, since his last fight was a pushover, this fight should be a good litmus test for him.

Just my $0.02, I will try to get it at over +300 on matchbook
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Posted: #3
Do you have any suggestions for a couple of books that have good odds but also allow parlays on boxing? It seems my book always has the worse odds
 
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Posted: #4
Clottey is a tough, world class fighter in his prime.  I have a difficult time imagining him getting blown out by anyone right now.  He may lose the fight to Cotto, but he'll be in it.  I always think there's value in betting guys like that when they're dogs. 
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Steven19083:

Do you have any suggestions for a couple of books that have good odds but also allow parlays on boxing? It seems my book always has the worse odds


5Dimes is the best book for boxing IMO.  They offer EVERYTHING, and usually reduced juice lines on day of the fight.  For the bigger fights, and every fight I'm interested in betting on, I request a market to be put up at matchbook as well, and you can get VERY good lines there sometimes.
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Posted: #6
Thanks I'll check them out. I took a look at matchbook when you mentioned it and am confused how it works. It didn't give odds straight out but asked me to offer odds? How does that work?
 
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Posted: #7
Let's say your unit size is $100

If you want Clottey at +300, you click on the Clottey box, and put +300 as your odds, put $100 in, and it will show up as -300 on the Cotto side.  You have a bet when someone takes it.

If you want Cotto, you put $300 to win $100 on Cotto -300, and it shows up as +300 on the Clottey side, and you wait for someone to take it.

Of course, you accept offers that are out there too instead if you want rather than offer.

If you bet baseball, then you must have this book.  You can't beat penny lines.
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Posted: #8
correction:  It's an EXCHANGE, not a book.  That might eliminate confusion. . .  they put up markets, and then the market decides itself what the lines become
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Posted: #9
So if I think PBF @ -450 is too high, I could make an offer of say PBF -300 and waite for someone to accept? They would be getting JMM at +300 then?
 
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Posted: #10
Yep. . . .  but someone may also put Mayweather at -330, and it will show up as Marquez +330 ahead of you.  That kind of thing.
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Posted: #11
Thats really great (assuming someone accepts the bet). I didn't know something like this existed. Thanks a lot for all your advice!
 
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Posted: #12
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Posted: #13
I think Cotto may be in trouble, but I'm hoping he gets through so they can put him in with Pacman.
 
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Posted: #14
I like Clottey against Cotto.  It's just not a favorable style for him.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:

Clottey is a tough, world class fighter in his prime.  I have a difficult time imagining him getting blown out by anyone right now.  He may lose the fight to Cotto, but he'll be in it.  I always think there's value in betting guys like that when they're dogs. 


Yes the only thing that stops me from making this a good bet is, MSG+ Puerto  Rican Day Parade the day after!

I personally believe Clottey is better than COTTO, Better Defense, Better Jab, Better Counter Puncher, and he is PURE 147 boxer, oh and better CHIN.

My only concern is Clottey starts slow, and any round that is "close" will definitely go Cotto's way at the Garden.

 It miggh be round 4 or 5 before Clottey starts putting pressure on Cotto. Then again due to being at MSG and a Day Before the P.R Day Parade.It will be 4-5 rounds in the bag for Cotto even if Clottey landed the better shots via a counter punch or jab.

Overall Clottey is the better fighter, any other Venue besides MSG and a Day before the P.R Day Parade, I would say Clottey is a amazing dog, he still is, I don't even see him as a DOG. I feel he is better than Cotto but we know what the judges do.

There is NO shame in Taking Clottey for $100 to win $300, that would be my pick don't be upset if Clottey gets ROBBED.

Our Score Card- Clottey 116-113 . Judges Score card - Cotto 116-113.

People don't sleep on Clottey he is a VERY Dangerous fighter who is finally getting his shot! Why Cotto took this fight I have no idea, match up wise  for Cotto this is the ONE GUY you wouldn't face!


 
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I pretty much agree on everything said so far. This fight is dead even in most areas, and you couldn't ask for a better fight as a fan.

Clottey is vastly under-rated. He has only lost twice, once if you want to get technical. He was dominating Baldomir and got DQ'd after getting a point taken away for an "intentional" headbutt. He was warned and subsequently disqualified after another clash of heads.

He was thoroughly beaten by Margo in 06 - but reports that he broke his hand in the 4th round have loomed large ever since.

Cotto is an elite fighter. However, the more I look at his resume the more I feel he hasn't beaten anyone other than Mosley....

Zab was a big fight at the time, but I now view him as a "never was" type of fighter regardless of his rep.

Malignaggi was never a threat to Cotto due to his lack of power, but he still managed to give Cotto fits in the middle part of that fight.

Quintana - well... he is what we thought he was.

Torres, Chop-Chop, the list goes on and on.

I'm not saying that Cotto hasn't fought what was put in front of him, what may have been considered top tier fighters at the time. I just still have a gut feeling that his chin is still in question. The punchers that he did defeat didn't offer any defense, so he was able to fight fire with fire.

I am 100% sure of two things about this fight.

If it reaches the final bell, Cotto will get his hand raised. If it ends anytime before that, Clottey found a way knockout Cotto.

The rather large elephant in the room has to be the questions about Cotto's traing camp and new trainer. Will he be able to get through all of the bullshit and win a fight against a VERY valid opponent? Only if he is 100% in every area of his physical and mental makeup. If he is only a fraction short, we will have a new WBO champ.

I'm not sure on my wager yet, but I'm sure it will include the under 9.5.
 
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Posted: #17
I think Clottley is the value play but I will be on Cotto. I do worry about his trainer problems and i am surprised he took this fight so quick after Antonio M. I just think he is the better boxer and will win a tight fight. Because the fight WILL be tight Clottey is the value play. I will take my chances on Big Mig
 
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Posted: #18
Cotto will likely win, but it's Clottey or nothing at these prices.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

I pretty much agree on everything said so far. This fight is dead even in most areas, and you couldn't ask for a better fight as a fan.

Clottey is vastly under-rated. He has only lost twice, once if you want to get technical. He was dominating Baldomir and got DQ'd after getting a point taken away for an "intentional" headbutt. He was warned and subsequently disqualified after another clash of heads.

He was thoroughly beaten by Margo in 06 - but reports that he broke his hand in the 4th round have loomed large ever since.

Cotto is an elite fighter. However, the more I look at his resume the more I feel he hasn't beaten anyone other than Mosley....

Zab was a big fight at the time, but I now view him as a "never was" type of fighter regardless of his rep.

Malignaggi was never a threat to Cotto due to his lack of power, but he still managed to give Cotto fits in the middle part of that fight.

Quintana - well... he is what we thought he was.

Torres, Chop-Chop, the list goes on and on.

I'm not saying that Cotto hasn't fought what was put in front of him, what may have been considered top tier fighters at the time. I just still have a gut feeling that his chin is still in question. The punchers that he did defeat didn't offer any defense, so he was able to fight fire with fire.

I am 100% sure of two things about this fight.

If it reaches the final bell, Cotto will get his hand raised. If it ends anytime before that, Clottey found a way knockout Cotto.

The rather large elephant in the room has to be the questions about Cotto's traing camp and new trainer. Will he be able to get through all of the bullshit and win a fight against a VERY valid opponent? Only if he is 100% in every area of his physical and mental makeup. If he is only a fraction short, we will have a new WBO champ.

I'm not sure on my wager yet, but I'm sure it will include the under 9.5.


Excellent points, realize this... Chop Chop had him seriously hurt in the 3rd round! TORRES had Cotto out on his FEET he got clocked in the first round, DECKED in the second round@! Hurt in the 5 6th and 7th round before Knocking out Torres!

Zab Juddah had him hurt and to get time he hit Zab with a LOW BLOW in the 3rd!

Mosley landed tons and tons of over hand rights, too bad he hit Cotto on his TEMPLE area NOT His Weak CHIN!

I remember after the Torres Fight, Larry Merchant was calling him the Puerto Rican version  Arturo Gatti!

Personally in my eyes Clottey is UNDEFEATED his DQ was BS and he was destroying  Margarito until he hurt his hand in the 4th. All the credit most guys would have QUIT he went on the whole distance.

Clottey is a PURE WelterWeight,  the overall STRONGEST physically, not one PUNCH wise, but size wise!

Will be a great chance for Clottey, still don't know why Cotto took this fight!
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by nuttyrich:



Yes the only thing that stops me from making this a good bet is, MSG+ Puerto  Rican Day Parade the day after!

I personally believe Clottey is better than COTTO, Better Defense, Better Jab, Better Counter Puncher, and he is PURE 147 boxer, oh and better CHIN.

People don't sleep on Clottey he is a VERY Dangerous fighter who is finally getting his shot! Why Cotto took this fight I have no idea, match up wise  for Cotto this is the ONE GUY you wouldn't face!


first of all.....cotto is the stronger fighter here then clottey who is a very long 5"8 but compared to cotto i belive cotto has the greater pop and is stronger....clottely has a nice jab and a left but he his punches are easily to spot....he does nothing great but is good at everything, with a plus defense and chin....

if your expecting a ko artist or the second coming of ike quartey then everyone is going to be upset.....

Here is clottey best 4 oppenents....Judah, a old chico corrales, baldomir and Margarito...with a 3-1......none with the speed or power combination of cotto or the abilty to trade a fury of punches and bang the body..........Clottey is in the quintana, cintron, collazo group.......versus a cotto or mosely...no chance...

thats why cotto took the fight...an interesting one on paper for the but in all reality a mismatch......

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Cee_MoNeY:

first of all.....cotto is the stronger fighter here then clottey who is a very long 5"8 but compared to cotto i belive cotto has the greater pop and is stronger....clottely has a nice jab and a left but he his punches are easily to spot....he does nothing great but is good at everything, with a plus defense and chin....

if your expecting a ko artist or the second coming of ike quartey then everyone is going to be upset.....

Here is clottey best 4 oppenents....Judah, a old chico corrales, baldomir and Margarito...with a 3-1......none with the speed or power combination of cotto or the abilty to trade a fury of punches and bang the body..........Clottey is in the quintana, cintron, collazo group.......versus a cotto or mosely...no chance...

thats why cotto took the fight...an interesting one on paper for the but in all reality a mismatch......



Not sure that ANYONE thinks that Clottey is one punch quality. However, I don't think Cotto took the fight based on anything other than another quasi local fighter would help sell out the Garden in troubled times where fights are going unsold unless your name is Pacman. It makes sense on both sides, and one thing I know is that this fight wasn't taken because of the lack of risk to Cotto.


 
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Posted: #22
Not quite understanding what the big deal about the fight being in MSG is all about. Are the judges all going to be New Yorkers? Or will they be all Hispanic? I would definitely concede that the crowd will be mostly rooting for Cotto, but that's about as far as that advantage goes IMO. As for the fight itself.... hard to see Clotty winning unless Cotto goes brain dead & decides to make it a slug-fest. Cotto is the superior boxer & as long as he sticks to that game-plan he should win a decision. I like Clotty but he is just not as versatile as Cotto & surely this puts him at a major disadvantage in this match-up.
 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:



Not sure that ANYONE thinks that Clottey is one punch quality. However, I don't think Cotto took the fight based on anything other than another quasi local fighter would help sell out the Garden in troubled times where fights are going unsold unless your name is Pacman. It makes sense on both sides, and one thing I know is that this fight wasn't taken because of the lack of risk to Cotto.


the risk is always there but if your expecting clottey to have a chance, i really do not think it is there.....Its a easy fight for Arum to make cotto some cash and hype up a mosely fight in the fall...there is no way pacman or mayweather fight cotto.....the crowd will be present but not like it will make a big difference

 
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Posted: #24
Whats everyone think of the o11.5 rounds bet?
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Steven19083:

Whats everyone think of the o11.5 rounds bet?


Wait a while see the props,  see how the line fluctuates, see the weigh-in.

Whats your take on the fight? It's your money how do you envision it playing out?
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