Posted:
#1
Never to early to get this started. The one thing that strikes me just how bigger Cotto is here compared to Pacman in this clip above. People that compare Cotto to Ricky Hatton do not know boxing. Cotto is MILES better. And Cotto is huge at 147! Hatton was not. So he is a far superior boxer to Hatton, has a far better defence then Hatton (would not be hard) and will be the biggest 'live' guy pacman has fought. Basically Manny has a huge challenge ahead. Adding to the fact we are hearing negative stories from training camp and the training camp of Pacman's being in the Philippines, I am starting to see this as a 50/50 fight. So in my eyes the value is backing Cotto.
I believe 2 years ago Cotto is simply to big to win this fight. I believe the Cotto that beat sugar Shane wins this fight as he looks just too big to me and we know normally a good big guy beats a very good little guy. But this is not the same Cotto. He just looks like an ageing boxer and his past 3 fights (especially Marg and Clottley). He's defence and reflexes are not what they were. So this is advantage pacman.
Taking all this into account Cotto's size advantage, his skills not being what they were, against a Pacman who I am not sure will be 100% prepared for this fight means it is a VERY hard fight to call.
I see two outcomes. Lot of experts see a Hagler v Hearns 3 round tear up. I don't see that. I think both these guys have too much respect for each other and while we will see some awesome Exchanges, I don't believe we will see them until later in the fight.
The outcomes I see therefore or either a Cotto KO or Pacman on points. Both are available right now at +300. We know Manny has power and he has taken this power up through the ranks. Cotto is huge at the weight though and unlike Rich (who questions Cotto chin) I think Cotto has a rock solid chin. He is easier to hit then he was but only one fighter has put him on the canvas and kept him there. That was Antonio M who would be 20 pounds heavier then pacman and we know have to wonder how authentic that victory was after what happened with his gloves with Sugar Shane. Cotto is a warrior and I just can't see a guy as small as Pacman blasting him out of there. I think Pacmans better workrate will in a 116-112 or 115-113 decision. I can't see Miguel being able to out decision Pacman (for a lot of reasons) so I believe the only way Miguel wins this fight is by KO. Cotto can punch so if he catches a guy as small as Pacquaio, he is going to hurt him and I see Pacman having a few scary moments in this fight. I really do.
I will be taking pacman on points in a thriller but Cotto backers I certainly would not try to hard to talk you out of backing your horse. I will also put a small saver on the Cotto KO but my main recommendation is for an under par Pacman to win on points in what could easily be seen as a conterversional decision. I think e may even see Pacman v Cotto 2 in the spring..
2.5 star Bet Pacman on Points
0.5 star bet Cotto by KO..
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