#1 seeds are 147-1 vs 16 seeds but people won't bet big ML lol

147-1 overall yet Kansas is -3500 and Houston is -2600 and both Purdue and Alabama will be similar.

147-1 overall yet so many can't see these are mad +EV. I get it if you have a small bankroll you don't want to tie your $250 up on Kansas to win $7. That doesn't mean it's not positive EV. It just means small bankrolls can't exploit it.

147-1 and it will probably be another 100 games before another 16 seed gets lucky. 

147-1. You simply can't argue with facts. You would think #1 seeds would be -7500 or -10000 against the 16, but they never are.

The -3000 is enough to scare most action away from a pretty much guaranteed win. 

Yes I know, once every 37 years one of them loses. 

A 4 team parlay of the four top seed MLs would probably pay -500 or -600 and has a 97-98% chance to win. 

Yet people won't touch it. Same people betting huge juice Superbowl prop guesses right and left. And every Thursday night, Monday night, and Sunday night game. 

It's not hard to see why nearly all gamblers are broke. 

@Danny9999

It’s not that people won’t touch it…the risk vs reward is just not worth it.  U may think it’s value but I don’t think it’s value to risk a lot to win basically nothing.  

-3500

Win 147 times 

Lose 1 time 

Then bet them all and STFU. Pretty simple. Just bet them then. 

With 32 games and all info available you can't find a way to make a profit either being selective and going 1-0 or betting more games and netting a profit?

You wanna lay 6/1 because it is a lock?

From a risk / reward situation it's not worth it  but hey gl 

Honestly kinda baffling ppl will say the risk ain’t worth the reward when you’ve shown it is. another gent on here had em as a 10 pt tease showing historical probability. Generally hate big juice and teasers in hoops but on em both this yr. Gl bud, gonna parlay em myself most likely. BOL regardless, thx for the post

@wmi799

 Right. Cause this isn’t a website for sharing ideas and talking about em…try sleeping on the other side of the bed maybe good lird

@wmi799

 Right. Cause this isn’t a website for sharing ideas and talking about em…try sleeping on the other side of the bed maybe good lird

throw in a couple of #2 seeds and I def would take a shot I like those odds. like you said people bet the coin toss 50/50 lol

as a matter of fact look at it now lol

@Danny9999

 I'm going to do it on parley

@Danny9999

Wow, this is some tremendous insight brother! Thank you for this incredible take on the current state of college basketball 1st rd March Madness historical analysis. Now if you could please bless us with your pick we would all be very grateful and appreciative. I'm thinking maybe 2000 unit bomb on all 4 #1 seeds ML parlay? Let me know brother, thanks in advance, I love you.

@wmi799

 This isn't the right reponse, danny has a point with this thread.  Even if u lay heavy juice if there is value based on the line then if u win it doesn't matter.

Easy on the replies, keep things respectful....

@kevmode

  Gotcha. I guess his posting history on these kind of things spells it out. MY other point is, then just bet them

@monstergrit

Appreciate your point. Thanks for pointing it out

Seriously you comparing a 50-50 cointoss to this bet..U could add in all the #2 seeds and u still will not be at a 50-50 bet...add in all the #3 seeds as well..u still would not be at 50-50...laying 35-1 on #1 seeds is not value...Risking as an example 3500 to win 100....winning 100 is not worth for me to risk 3500. ...Value my a$$

There is a very high % he wins this bet.....Until he doesn't...

Anyone who has the approach that the juice doesn't hurt as long as you win? Needs to stop betting on sports and take up knitting!

For those that follow bankroll management..please do not read this thread...this is how u lose your bankroll fast thinking you can make a quick buck..

@Rainmaking

 Well said.. actually years ago, I use to say the same thing to comments like this...."Stop betting and start knitting".lol 

Why do i always see these huge ML threads from this particular OP

Danny will be calling us haters when he wins $100

Hey guys we can solve this with math... if the average ML for a #1 seed is -5000 and you bet all 148... you would be up about 94 units.  The only problem is this would have taken 37 years so you would've averaged about 2.5 units per year and that one time you lose will suck. But to say this is a useless dumb strategy is kind of dumb in itself.  Blindly being able to place 4 bets once a year that takes all of a minute and historically you would've gotten 2.5% return is pretty good IMO.

I'm NOT saying right or wrong, just another way to look at the scenario being discussed:

You're in Vegas, at the casino. You have $3500 in hand. You lay it on Kansas m/l.

It wins, you now have $3600 in hand.

What are you going to do with the $3600 that you couldn't do with the $3500?

A better looking hooker and/or more blow is not the correct answer (though I'd grade it an A+ 'cuz I like the way you think.)

There is no correct or incorrect answer, just a topic for conversation.

It's great odds no doubt. Also not 100% risk free though. To each his own I guess (but a wise investor/bettor gets a better return on his $3500 than $100.)

I think your money would offer more value in a Vegas flood tunnel hummer but statistically betting the 1's on the ML probably is safer and more profitable.