A little higher. It's about -720 but that is still +EV by a mile.
I would invite anyone to check the lines at draftkings. Those lines posted by Dave are incorrect. And EQC MGM has a better price as well.
*Alabama is huge though
@VeritasAlways
Wow really sorry you got your feelings hurt but I still don't think I said anything rude.
It's simply silly to suggest that "wise" bettors gain 3% a day lol. In fact roflmao. Within 2-3 years they would be BILLIONAIRES. I think you seriously underestimate the value of such a measley daily return. And even if your make believe professional wise gamblers are gaining 50% every day 
. My intention is not to keep up with the Joneses, Not imaginary ones anyway. I am making gains while most here are chasing -110 bets that are near impossible to win long term. And worse than that, parlays. I will be happy with my 3% while your imaginary friends do way better than me.
No, people betting - pretty much 100% -- lose their asses. The precise reason everyone seems terrified to risk a 0.01% chance of losing $3500. These mythical "wise" bettors who get better than a 3% daily return simply don't exist other than in your imagination. I'm sure, Warren Buffett would love them to teach him how to get 3% returns every day since over his career he hasn't averaged that in a month.
@Danny9999
You getting -800 that all 4 bottom seeds will lose is TREMENDOUS value. I honestly think you lost a lot of people when you started talking about +EV - so many here just don't understand the concept of value, and it's just sad, because finding value is the most basic foundation of all successful betting. If a person doesn't understand value and/or can't identify it, they're going to lose in the long run - period.
Here's a legitimate question for those of you who don't like Danny's strategy - if you find a +EV spot, why wouldn't you bet it?
+EV in this scenario would be the equivalent of your book offering you this -800 four game #1 seed ML Parlay at -400 or whatever they decide to offer it at a reduced price. Betting a -800 for the sake of betting a -800 regularly priced wager simply because historically its a winning wager is not +EV, it's just a regular -800 wager, there is no shred of value here.
@packersbackers
It's a +EV spot because the chances of at least one #16 seed winning are a whole lot less than 12.5%. I'd estimate the chances of a #16 seed beating a #1 seed this year at less than 5%. So if you've only got to risk $800 to win $100, you're getting tremendous value, IMHO.
They are -5000 at draftkings and -4000 at EQC MGM.
Bookmaker had Alabama at -8000 and they are -12500 at Draftkings so they prices can vary greatly between books.
I don't see Kansas or Houston anywhere near the prices you posted anywhere
Thank you for understanding. I don't know if they really don't see that it's clearly +EV or if they are just arguing for the sake of arguing. This is the worst group of #1 seeds I have ever seen and still -800 is clearly +EV. I'm really not trying to be a jerk, but I can understand small bankrolls not wanting to play a -800. When I only had maybe $200 to bet with, I wouldn't want to risk my whole roll to get $25. I wanted to get a better score. And honestly I think that's the disconnect. Maybe it's not great if your funds are really limited, and we have all been there. So I'm not trying to shit on people for it. But that doesn't change the fact it's a clear +EV bet.
Yeah I didn't expect them to be that high. There is a prop bet though. Will any 16 seed best a 1 seed no is -800. That's a slightly better payout since bama is -12500 and Purdue -10000. I think that's because they had a few days off and playing a team that didn't. Kansas is -4000 and Houston -3500. I don't know why else the lines are so different because bama and Purdue are not better than Kansas and Houston to that degree.
Value IS everything when it comes to successful betting. Over time, if you keep putting yourself in +EV situation, you'll come out ahead. However, if you're putting yourself in -EV situations or coinflip situations, you ARE going to lose in the long run - there's no way to get around it. And if you're a successful bettor, you avoid going on tilt by practicing good bankroll management.
If you are going to go on tilt, that's going to happen either way. Whether it's because you lose a big ML, lose on a sucky bad beat, or lose 6 games in a row. Thats a whole different thing. If we get upset over something and go on tilt, we will probably lose. I have done it, so I know. But at the end of the day, value is everything. If you are betting superbowl prop guesses, and MNF, SNF, or TNF prop guesses you might win on any given day, but by in the long run, you will lose. Guaranteed because those guesses are -EV. If you are betting +EV bets that say win 147 out of 148 times, you might lose on any given day, but long term you will win, because the plays are +EV.
I dont see why losing a -800 play would be more likely to put someone on tilt than say having a huge bet on a team -4.5 points, they are leading by 7 at the free throw line with 3 secs left. They miss both free throws and the other team sinks a 3/4 court 3 at the buzzer. Because the -800 losses have never put me on tilt, but that shit sure did. If I lose $800 its not the end of the world especially considering I will win $100 fifty times for every $800 loss.
It shouldn't rattle you at all. If I know I'm making a +EV play and I lose, it's just another notch in my belt, and I don't think twice about it, because I know I made the correct play. Same thing at the poker table, if I go all in pre-flop with pocket aces against pocket kings, I don't sweat the outcome, because I know I made the correct play. If you consistently make +EV plays, you'll end up ahead long term, regardless of whatever losses you might suffer along the way.
Bottom line, value is everything. A classic example of this is James Holzhauer risking $50,000 to win $500 that Ken Griffey Jr would be elected to the hall of fame. Was he stupid for making a -10,000 bet? Hell no, because it was a huge +EV play.
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