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2012 Kempom System

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Posted: #251
my mistake but to my defense this thread gets comments like wild fire i didnt think to look back almost two pages. i just looked at comments from today
 
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Posted: #252
Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.
 
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Posted: #253
Quote Originally Posted by jageer1:

so far i have 

siu edwards +9.5
troy +6.5
S. Alabama +6.5
Chatt. +6.5


correct me if im wrong

CHAT opened @ +6.5 at Betonline yesterday afternoon so it would be a play if using that book and getting that line
 
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Posted: #254
on the contrary to previous post, Troy opened @ +6 yest afternoon @ Betonline and thus was not a play at that book for me. 

Troy opened @ +6.5 last night @ 5dimes so it would be a system  play if using that book.


 
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Posted: #255
Quote Originally Posted by R-Town:

Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.

I started the System on Saturday w/ the old parameters... here are my notes thus far.....

2/18/12

Play AGAINST

Pacific -8.5 vs Idaho St 8pm win by 2 System winner

Central Michigan -10 vs Texas A/M Corpus Christi

Lousiiana Tech -16 vs Central Arkansas

Radford -10.5 vs Binghamton

Wisconsin Green Bay -8.5 vs Eastern Michigan win by 5 system winner

Canisius -7 vs Maryland Balt. Co.

Tenn. Chattanooga -11 vs The Citadel lose by 2 system winner-outirght winner @ +475!

3-0 ATS(+300); 1-2 SU (+275)

 

HERE ARE THE NEW SYSTEM PARAMETERS:
Bet against any team:
That Is Kenpom #165 or worse
That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite  
That is at home and always has "lined" games (includes Summit)

The Conferences that do not qualify as System plays are:

American East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, Great West, Independents, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, and Southwestern Athletic.

 

2/19/12-NO PLAYS

2/20/12-NO PLAYS

2/21/12-

#262 Greensboro vs Wofford? they been killing it in conference 10-6…. 1st place in Southern North Division by 2 games; Wofford 10-6 3rd place in Northen division… could be a tight game, the points could be good…NO PLAY… Greensboro +2…..

2/22/12

#266 Eastern Michigan -9.5 vs Northern Illinois win by 3 system winner!

4-0 ATS (+400); 1-3 SU (+175)

2/23/12

#262 Eastern Kentucky -9.5 vs SIU Edwardsville, (I got +9)

#226 Morehead St -7 vs Eastern Illinois.. dropped to 6, missed out, monitor

#221 Florida International -6.5 vs Troy

#183 Florida Atlantic -7 vs South Alabama.. dropped to 6, missed out, monitor …back to -7, jumpin on it…

(#242 Furman -6 vs Chattanooga -NOT SYSTEM, “almost play”, but now up to 6.5, see how it does… Kine is looking for reasons to play Chat…)

(#148 College of Charleston -9 vs Georgia Southern -NOT SYSTEM, but Kine looking to monitor)

(#148 N. Dakota St -7.5 vs IUPI -NOT SYSTEM, but Kine looking to monitor, up to -8)

(#213 Lousiana Tech -6 vs San Jose St -NOT SYSTEM, but an “almost” play)

(#168 Youngstown St -5 vs Wright St-NOT SYSTEM, “almost play”; Kine monitoring)

 

 
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Posted: #256
yo KP

I have a favor to ask... check your PMs.. thanks
 
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Posted: #257
On All 4 System Plays....Locked and Loaded...
 
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Posted: #258
Quote Originally Posted by Fools_Gold:


I started the System on Saturday w/ the old parameters... here are my notes thus far.....

2/18/12

Play AGAINST

Pacific -8.5 vs Idaho St 8pm win by 2 System winner

Central Michigan -10 vs Texas A/M Corpus Christi

Lousiiana Tech -16 vs Central Arkansas

Radford -10.5 vs Binghamton

Wisconsin Green Bay -8.5 vs Eastern Michigan win by 5 system winner

Canisius -7 vs Maryland Balt. Co.

Tenn. Chattanooga -11 vs The Citadel lose by 2 system winner-outirght winner @ +475!

3-0 ATS(+300); 1-2 SU (+275)

 

HERE ARE THE NEW SYSTEM PARAMETERS:
Bet against any team:
That Is Kenpom #165 or worse
That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite  
That is at home and always has "lined" games (includes Summit)

The Conferences that do not qualify as System plays are:

American East, Atlantic Sun, Big South, Great West, Independents, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, and Southwestern Athletic.

 

2/19/12-NO PLAYS

2/20/12-NO PLAYS

2/21/12-

#262 Greensboro vs Wofford? they been killing it in conference 10-6…. 1st place in Southern North Division by 2 games; Wofford 10-6 3rd place in Northen division… could be a tight game, the points could be good…NO PLAY… Greensboro +2…..

2/22/12

#266 Eastern Michigan -9.5 vs Northern Illinois win by 3 system winner!

4-0 ATS (+400); 1-3 SU (+175)

2/23/12

#262 Eastern Kentucky -9.5 vs SIU Edwardsville, (I got +9)

#226 Morehead St -7 vs Eastern Illinois.. dropped to 6, missed out, monitor

#221 Florida International -6.5 vs Troy

#183 Florida Atlantic -7 vs South Alabama.. dropped to 6, missed out, monitor …back to -7, jumpin on it…

(#242 Furman -6 vs Chattanooga -NOT SYSTEM, “almost play”, but now up to 6.5, see how it does… Kine is looking for reasons to play Chat…)

(#148 College of Charleston -9 vs Georgia Southern -NOT SYSTEM, but Kine looking to monitor)

(#148 N. Dakota St -7.5 vs IUPI -NOT SYSTEM, but Kine looking to monitor, up to -8)

(#213 Lousiana Tech -6 vs San Jose St -NOT SYSTEM, but an “almost” play)

(#168 Youngstown St -5 vs Wright St-NOT SYSTEM, “almost play”; Kine monitoring)

 



From what I can see, Eastern Kentucky is about to get to -10 according to reduced juice on 5Dimes. IUPUI might get to +8 again for the same reason. San Jose St. up to +6.5
 
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Posted: #259
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Superb article, this is exactly the way I cap, article likes this one.  Of course, I really like the under, one would possibility point to under first half as if Citadel falls behind they might have to speed up the tempo in the second half.  Still digging now

dakineProf... if i remember right u mentioned to stay away from ML, 1st halfs, 2nd halfs games. cuzz its not part of the "System"... 
 
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Posted: #260
Quote Originally Posted by LiL_River333:

dakineProf... if i remember right u mentioned to stay away from ML, 1st halfs, 2nd halfs games. cuzz its not part of the "System"... 

The system is the system....

His personal plays are a whole different animal....
 
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Posted: #261
Can get +7.5 right now on South Alabama. Locked it in myself
 
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Posted: #262

Glad I waited on S. Alabama too, just added that at 7.5 to my card as well.  Also added San Jose St. as it is now at 6.5 and as I don't see Edwardsville going up I am going to settle for the 9.5.

EIU is down to 6 and I don't anticipate it going back up so I am going to have to pass on that.  Best of luck everyone!

 
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Posted: #263
Quote Originally Posted by R-Town:

Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.


Log?  The first game of the system was yesterday

Presystem is just how the system would have done had we started it two weeks earlier, very simple to go back and examine. 
 
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Posted: #264
Quote Originally Posted by LiL_River333:

dakineProf... if i remember right u mentioned to stay away from ML, 1st halfs, 2nd halfs games. cuzz its not part of the "System"... 


Exactly, only full-game plays are "system" plays.  But after examining these games that most people overlook, if you see an angle you like (the Citadel article about slowing down tempo) and you want to play it, its is well advised that you do so, its just not technically a system play. 
 
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Posted: #265
Quote Originally Posted by Fools_Gold:


The system is the system....

His personal plays are a whole different animal....


Indeed, and a "wild" animal at that
 
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Posted: #266
 KP thanks for all your input & bol......
 
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Posted: #267

so right now the plays look like

south ala +7  --- troy +6.5 ---eastern illinois +7 and edwardsville +9.5 

Is that right?  and watch for tenn chat to get to 6.5 or 7?

 

 
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Posted: #268
Quote Originally Posted by eastcoastplayer:

so right now the plays look like

south ala +7  --- troy +6.5 ---eastern illinois +7 and edwardsville +9.5 

Is that right?  and watch for tenn chat to get to 6.5 or 7?

 



You have clearly not read post 1 and 2, its literally the least you could do
 
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Posted: #269

Quote Originally Posted by R-Town:

Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.

if dates are missing its because there werent plays that day.....pre system was 25-9.....but not exact as i used some of the conferences  that dont always have lines...not enough to skew the win perecnt though... that was from feb 1 -feb 17....

kine is taking off on the system from 18th on...

4 today with tenn chat on the bubble....kine thanks for the picks..last night niu almost won outright...gl tonight ryno

 

 
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Posted: #270
Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

I have read both Post 1 and Post 2, they both list a home team as part of the parameters, Troy is on the road tonite, am I ,missing something ?

         re- read           ...fade home team!
 
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Posted: #271

I have read and re-read - - - sorry to waste your time - -  I DO, however, THANK YOU for your time and GOOD LUCK !!

 
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Posted: #272
I went with a 4 team teaser with the plays...

South Alabama +11.5

Troy +10

Tenn. Chat +10.5

SIU Ed. +13.5

50 to win 150
 
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Posted: #273

I am a little scared to post this because I don't want to get screamed at by KineProfessor...joke! This is what I have for now:

SIU Edwardsville +9.5 (Holding steady!)

San Jose State +6.5 (opened at 5.5 and we are getting the kind of line movement we like to see with the system plays)

South Alabama +7 (dipped to 6.5 earlier but went back to 7)

Chattanooga +6.5 (opened at 6 and moved to 6.5. I would wait to see if we get a better number or if it holds steady)

Close but no cigar:

Eastern Illinois +6 (opened at +7 and moving down. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move back to a system play and I will play it but I would much rather have it at 7)

Troy +6 (opened at 6.5, went to 7 and now down to 6. It could be a system play by game time)

I will likely wait on all of these to see IF they fall out of system possibilities especially the ones right on the number.

 

 
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Posted: #274
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



I subscribe to the "theory of opposites" in life.  If you see "most" people doing something, do the opposite and you will most likely find success.  "Most" people eat fast food, sweets, and other crap, so I don't.  "Most" people don't exercise, so I exercise.  "Most" people complain about their job and do the very least amount of work possible, so I don't complain and do the very best that I can.  "Most" people float through life with no goals or aspirations, so I set goals and try to be better both personally and professionally, the list goes on and on. 

"Most" people lose at gambling (many lose a ton and almost everyone loses over the long run).  What do we know that "most" gamblers do?  "Most" gamblers bet on favorites, "most" gamblers bet on games they can watch on tv, "most" gamblers bet right before the game starts and gets the worse line, "most" gamblers bet more when they are losing, "most" gamblers chase bad beats and losses, etc. etc. etc.  I try to do the opposite of these things as much as I can.  Vegas knows these characteristics of gamblers as well and makes you pay a premium to bet on ranked teams and televised games.  Those lines are WAY MORE "tight" and there are tons of information available about those players, games etc.

I can write another 10K words about this but need to dive into the games a bit more, but that should give you a bit of insight into my mindset, I'll try to revisit in sometime in the next week or two. 


  Man, wish we lived near each other. I think we have a lot in common. Still play ball 4 times a week and haven't had fast food or soda in over 7 years (very strict diet). My wife and sons the same..... Never have to worry about getting sick......

Keep up the good work man......
 
 
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Posted: #275
Quote Originally Posted by YACKER:

I am a little scared to post this because I don't want to get screamed at by KineProfessor...joke! This is what I have for now:

SIU Edwardsville +9.5 (Holding steady!)

San Jose State +6.5 (opened at 5.5 and we are getting the kind of line movement we like to see with the system plays)

South Alabama +7 (dipped to 6.5 earlier but went back to 7)

Chattanooga +6.5 (opened at 6 and moved to 6.5. I would wait to see if we get a better number or if it holds steady)

Close but no cigar:

Eastern Illinois +6 (opened at +7 and moving down. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move back to a system play and I will play it but I would much rather have it at 7)

Troy +6 (opened at 6.5, went to 7 and now down to 6. It could be a system play by game time)

I will likely wait on all of these to see IF they fall out of system possibilities especially the ones right on the number.

 



I luv ya Yacker, but you're going to get screamed at.....

The line MUST OPEN at 6.5 or no play...... See post #1 and 2!

Again, no disrespect, because you are the man and on fire!!!
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