I have learned there's so much more to it than what you describe, it'd be impossible to answer. I think its quite simple if......
1) your money management is 100 % on point every single bet (1.5% of bankroll max).
2) you are disciplined in playing only games with value, that you cap, at your unit size. Stop when you make a profit on the day and don't chase losses.
3) understand the bias factored into lines and get over playing favorites. -105 is good, but money line dogs are better and lower your breakeven number.
4) track every single bet you make
5) stop tailing people on covers who provide ZERO insight into their picks.
6) DO NOT watch the games.....unless you have mastered discipline outlined in 2.
They all suck, unless you find the right few to fade. You’ll never win following “huge, ginormous, monster, double bomb, bet all you can plays. Fade and win. I won’t call out names, but the most popular on here are the best fade material.......don’t ask me to post my picks because I don’t need to pick, I just fade the most popular on here. You know who you are!! Lol
How about this? I know I can’t beat this and I’m highly intelligent and follow and listen to many people who do lots of work.. and I lose every year and this year’s the worst..
But I’m semi retired and don’t spend much on my self so this is my “spending money” But it’s truly amazing how hard this is.. tougher than Wall Street ( not being arrogant Stock Gods). But this is more fun, right?
I think it’s just too humans involved..
But here’s my real gripe.. a big middle finger to these sons of bitch sports books who get on gambling radio and talk about a bad day or we needed one team.. HEY AHOLES.. you’re freaking killing us!! Stop insulting our intelligence.. you beat 97% of us.. freaking bow down and be a lot more appreciative and don’t EVER complain.. I wish I had a 97% margin in my business..
if you are wagering on games to get and feel action, this isn't what you should be using money for.. If you want to make money, play less games on the board and far less often.
The you haven’t learned comment was harsh, I lost 200-300k before I learned... take it from someone who has learned - people name lists of the best cappers - stop tailing just stop...
as people have probably said many times, take advise, listen, analyze but don’t tail
other than less than a handful who have shown themselves to be special over the past decade, and still don’t do it blindly
@anewout
Look at ATS spread streaks it's easy to see teams that dont cover do cover that helps if team example A has not covered the spread are they going to start covering all of a sudden ? Or team B that's red hot and covering every game are they going to stop covering? Where do those facts of covering come from? The money is there you just have to find it like finding Easter eggs
The moment when you are there is/are:
- You play only singles, you banned parlays from your betting habits
- Bookie start lowering your stakes
- Bookie decide to ban you
... and the most important, it is NCAAB Sutarday 120+ games and it is hard findings a couple of games to bet.
Money management is not in this story because without it you will lose all even having 60% hit on 110.
Keep in mind, I am just doing this just for fun betting pretty small amounts. I just enjoy digging data without having a chance to watch NCAAB games.
Buy DKNG instead... 
Gamble with your Fun Money
Manage your plays to a few select value games
Grab a few Unders in Season Win Team Totals in NFL/NCAAF
52.5% is achievable with a “gun to the head play of the day”. More than 2-3 plays a day, you’re asking for trouble.
It’s A-OK to “Pass” and just watch the game
Due Diligence counts and will make a difference in the long run. There is definitely no Easy way to go about this business. Check injuries, local papers, kenpom...take your wagers serious
Keep your karma clean
Always look at your plays through a contrarian point of view, naturally think “why can’t this Dog cover” before thinking “why wouldn’t this Favorite cover.”
Reverse Line Movement is your friend
Try to have more than a few Books, especially a local in order to shop your lines
Never lay more than -150
Make your Unit bet standard and around 1-2% of your Bankroll. (90% or more of your plays) with an occasional 1.3x, 1.5x or rarely 2x.
if you’re truly a strong capper or expert in a sport, focus on one NCAA conference, or a handful of NBA/NFL teams. Maybe just pay attention to one squad. Watch for those situational games and hit them.
Just some humble Advice from an Old Head...Take it for what it’s worth. Have a great Saturday!
Wolfeman
Established in 1995,
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