Bubba's $$$$ Thread WEDNESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.16.16

$$$$ Virginia Tech -4 $$$$

I actually bet this last night at VT -3.5, but as of this write up it is now -4.5, so for write up purposes I will buy the hook.

There already has been a good amount of nice analysis on this game, so I will try to add a few extra things to consider on why I think VT is worth betting on here. 

I have this game capped at Virginia Tech -7.5 to -8 myself.  It would not surprise me to see Virginia Tech easily win by double digits really. 

For starters, can we just get an 'AMEN' on how solid Virginia Tech has been playing at home?!?  This team has been ridiculously solid there lately, and we all know NIT gives home court to the higher seed. 

Another factor with NIT games is the emotional state of the team.  There have been many instances of higher seeded NIT teams flaming out early, as their hearts were not into playing in the NIT.  Vice versa, there are teams that, while disappointed not to make the NCAA tourney, still decide to make the best of it and play hard to win the NIT.  Look at Miami last year, they were on the bubble and did not make the cut, but coach Jim Larrañaga gathered them together and challenged them to win the NIT and make that a resounding calling card heading into their senior years.  They almost did it to, falling just short to Stanford.  Still, message received and Miami is now one of the top seeds this year.

From what I've heard/read, sounds like new coach Buzz Williams has challenged his team the same way.  Take the disappointment from not making the tourney cut as a bubble team and show the world what the Hokies are made of and let that momentum carry over into next season.

Also, looking at Princeton offense, they rely a lot on 3 point shooting.  Not a big surprise from an Ivy league squad.  They are pretty good at it too, with 3 guys averaging close to 40% or better and another 2 players shooting mid-30%.  Luckily for us Hokie backers though, Virginia Tech was one of the ACC leaders in defending the 3 point shot.  Miami torched them a bit in the ACC tourney game, but I watched that game and it was more Miami making some tough shots than Virginia Tech laying off. 

On the other side, the Hokies have a clear athleticism advantage.  Their guards are aggressive and don't settle for jump shots but like to drive to the hole and create contact.  Princeton may have some issues with foul trouble depending on how the refs call the game. 

That leads me to my final point, free throw shooting.  Virginia Tech is a fairly decent free throw shooting team, so if they are aggressive and get a lot of attempts, I expect them to take advantage of it.  Also, assuming VT holds a small to moderate lead late in the game forcing Princeton to foul on purpose, I expect VT to do well shooting and keep the lead or expand it.

That's why I expect Virginia Tech to win by > 6.5 points.  Considering we got them at -3.5 (or 4), that is a decent buffer to make them a compelling play.

$$$$ Virginia Tech -4 $$$$

Jesus.  Belmont game is obnoxious to watch while on Georgia.  Georgia has been up DD multiple times and every time they start to pull away another one of these white kids launches and hits a 3.  They've shot 32 times from beyond the arc!!!!!  Agh.  

Roadrunner069 

Hmm, I would have thought Virginia Tech would hold a larger lead than 6 points holding Princeton to 25% on 3 point shooting.  That is a *great* stat, I hope it holds up!  Let's go VT, Hokie Hokie Hokie High!

That Albany 3 pointer as time ran out to put the game into OT may have crushed a nice ML parlay I have going.  Need Ohio to win!

Call me crazy, but I just bet the 2nd half Virginia Tech under 79.  48 points scored at halftime, like the defense that Virginia Tech is playing and controlling the game.  Eh, worth a shot I think.

Tech imploding late this half with Princeton jacking 3's.  I'm really surprised they let these guys into the game.  They had the crowd going and were up DD also.  

$$$$ Draymond Green o13.5 points $$$$

great call homer! buffalo +1.5 was cash

Had to close shaves with Va Tech and Ohio U but pulled both of them out of the fire!! Also tried to 3 team moneyline parlays and split on those. Went 3 out of 4. That works just fine. Thanks to Bubba and Top Flight for the good poop on the plays!!

I've had my share of luck go against me enough in my days that every now n then I deserve some to work in my favor. As was the case last night. Virginia Tech somehow covered that 3.5 pts in OT. I'll take it, that makes me 4-0 on this thread since starting last wk.

Congrats to all of us who followed on Michigan.  Squeaked out another W.  None of my picks have come easy tonight, sheesh!

When I posted the va tech game yesterday at -3 1/2 I really thought that 1) Princeton didn't care toplay in the nit as thet blew a tie for the ivy league title and 2) thought that buzz Williams had this team on roll that would lead to a double digit win,

3/17   $$$$ NC WILM/DUKE OVER 156 $$$$

Go ahead and throwing in this now, just looking at styles this game will be a track meet NC Wilm can score and usually scores in bunches perimeter shooting will be key and they run a deep bench of players that call all shoot, problem is Duke will play the same up and down and probably make a living at the free throw line, no answer for G.Allen, on NC's side should be a fun game to watch not sold Duke will cover spread but feel like both teams playing into high scoring game 87-79 Duke but would love to see Duke exit right out of the gate. gl all

Who was Jerk thtat  said "who is Albany" I did bet Ohio what a 1 pt. cover.  Lucky. LOL

Yes, well that game did not exactly go the way I called it.  Virginia Tech played tighter than I would have liked, but a win is a win I guess.  I've had enough bad luck late that it is nice to see a game roll my way.  I am very interested now in seeing how they handle traveling to Utah.

I also had Michigan in a parlay, and lo and behold they also cover late.  It is a festivus miracle!   

I also tailed on Idaho and was disappointed in their play.  Oh well, can't win 'em all.  Still a winning night.  Really looking forward to Thursday!!!!

You are right, it should have been a blowout and would have, except the TWolves are just not a team that knows how to step on an opponents throat and close it out.  But hey, you WON, and for that I salute you sir. 

Excellent call sir on the Georgia Tech under.  I tailed you on that and reaped the benefits.  This daily thread has for sure helped me win money a lot more than lose.  I truly hope the positive momentum will last for at least another week or two. 

FOR THURSDAY'S THREAD:

I am *very* tempted to make UNCW my $$$$ play for Thursday as well.  In fact, I already bet UNCW +10 as an official play and am liking that pick.  I agree with rf_dawg on it.  Problem with Duke is how short their bench is.  They play maybe 6 guys lately while UNCW plays 9.  While Duke likely has the top 2 guys on the court, that difference matters less and less as the game moves on and fatigue gets more certain.

Anyways, I bet it and I like it.  Duke chokes 1st or 2nd round more often than not.  Yet, that is not the game I choose as my $$$ play for Thursday.

This $$$$ is for THURSDAY. I will try to remember to re-post this pick in the Thursday thread.

First let me say that I logged on to post this pick and was surprised to find the previous poster with a vastly different opinion. Last week, I posted Notre Dame over Duke in the ACC tournament as one of my $$$$ plays because I questioned Coach K's desire to play 4 games in 4 days in the ACC tournament leading into the NCAA's. Duke laid an egg in that second half and went away in the ACC, not necessarily as planned, but certainly providing the 7 deep rotation a much needed 6 days of rest as opposed to a grueling 4 games in 4 days leading up to the NCAA.

Duke has played the 14th most difficult schedule in the country and, as many may forget, is the defending champion. This is a team that is stocked with McDonalds All Americans that has faced top level competition all season long. On the other bench, UNCW has played a schedule littered with the 130th-200th ranked teams in college basketball. The biggest name on their schedule, a very disappointing 13-16 Georgetown squad, beat them by 10 points. I analyzed the UNCW schedule and could not find a decent team on it. Period. The 25 wins here should be largely discounted due to their 149th ranked strength of schedule.

I did take a moment to read the post above mine and was surprised to see the claim that the length of UNCW would cause Duke problems. I was unaware of UNCW and did not know the starters. What did I find? UNCW starts 4 guards at 6'0", 6'1", 6'5" and 6'5" with a 7' center. Duke counters with 6'2", 6'5", 6'5", 6'9" and 7' Plumlee at center. Thus, if anything, I think it will be UNCW facing a severe height disadvantage at EVERY position vs. a significantly more seasoned opponent than what they are used to seeing.

My final point deals with the pace of play. UNCW will push the pace, but I doubt this will lead to any advantage. Pushing the pace will lead to more possessions per team. Increasing the number of possessions will only widen the Duke advantage. Duke has been playing 7 players for two months with games every few days. They are now coming off 6 days of rest, so I think they will have the legs to run UNCW out of the gym.

I am looking for a Duke 14-16 point win.

My pick is DUKE -10 $$$$