Conf Tournament Info So Far

Conference Tournament info so far:

1. Teams with the better Kenpom or within 30 of the better Kenpom:

9-4 (69.2%) ATS 

Teams within 30 of the better Kenpom:

4-1 (80.0%) ATS

Teams with better Kenpom by at least 31:

5-3 (62.5%) ATS

2. Teams that have played each other once or twice and are winless in the season series:

6-1 (85.7%) ATS (any Kenpom)

4-0 (100.0%) ATS (Kenpom within 30 of the better Kenpom)

great info $lade.TY

Chigyyyy

Radford -4.5 (44)

Le Moyne +3.5 (20)

Other games are within a couple spots of the 30 slot threshold. Unless you wanna lay double digits. 

EIU +3 (26)

Southern Indiana +3.5 (29)

@ModernKavalan

 LeMoyne is -3.5

@Sladerunningfox

 Whoops, good call.

Wagner +5.0 @ Sacred Heart

* Wagner 0-2 vs Sacred Heart

* Wagner lost to Sacred Heart within last 5 games: 2/17/2024, Sacred Heart 63-53 at Wagner.

* Kenpom:

Sacred Heart = 292

Wagner = 313 (21)

Comparisons:

1. 3/5/2024: Holy Cross (+5.5) 84, Army 68

* Holy Cross was 0-2 vs Army

* Holy Cross lost to Army within 5 games

* Kenpom: 

Army = 338

Holy Cross = 348 (10)

2. 3/4/2024: Jacksonville (+3.5) 92, Kennesaw St 86

* Jacksonville was 0-2 vs Kennesaw St

* Jacksonville lost to Kennesaw St within 5 games

* Kenpom:

Kennesaw St = 263

Jacksonville = 275 (12)

Good luck!

In addition:

Turnovers/Play:

Wagner 13.6% to 15.1%

Opp Effective field goal %:

Wagner 49.2% to 51.6%

Free Throw %:

Wagner 71.7% to 70.0%

Also, it looks like Wagner boxes out as they lead most of the rebounding stats.

Conference Tournament info update:

1. Teams with the better Kenpom or within 30 of the better Kenpom:

11-9 (55.0%) ATS 

Teams within 30 of the better Kenpom:

5-4 (56.6%) ATS

Teams with better Kenpom by at least 31:

6-5 (54.6%) ATS

2. Teams that have played each other once or twice and are winless in the season series:

9-1 (90.0%) ATS (any Kenpom)

5-0 (100.0%) ATS (Kenpom within 30 of the better Kenpom)*

The Thursday teams that are 0-2 head-to-head:

1. Missouri State (161)* +1.5 vs Murray St (142)

2. Valpo (295) +12.5 vs Belmont (119)

3. UIC (184) +5.5 vs S. Illinois (121)

4. Pacific (354) +10.5 vs Pepperdine (240)

5. Holy Cross (348) +18.5 @ Colgate (143)

6. Lehigh (270) @ Lafayette (313) +3.5

7. Bucknell (294)* +4.5 @ American (280)

8. Jacksonville (275) +6.5 @ Stetson (211)

9. N. Alabama (249)* +3.5 @ Austin Peay (232)

10. N. Kentucky (188) +7.5 @ Wright St. (155)

Teams that are 0-1 head-to-head:

11. GA Southern (285) +2.5 vs S. Alabama (216)

Looks like there are three games (1,7,9) that are winless head-to-head and within 30 Kenpom. 

Although, we don’t have as big of a sample size as we would like, I like the way the winless head-to-head is trending. May as well put 2 units on 1,7 and 9 and 1 unit on the rest. I mean we are degenerates, right?

Off to gamble, drink and watch three of the above hit in person at Arch Madness.

Good luck! 

@Sladerunningfox

 The one you put star on it that mean qualify for the play?

@bbe_bb_2006

The stars are the 1,7,9 plays I mentioned that I will put 2 units on. I will put 1 unit on the others.

Thanks for the input

@Sladerunningfox

 Appreciate your time

@Sladerunningfox

 Thanks for the info 

@Sladerunningfox

 Thx for the info!!

....just throwing this into the mix if it helps...

KineProfessor System>>

Bet AGAINST any team that is:

1) At Home

2) Ranked #180 or worse on Kenpom

3) Favored by 6.5 or more

@Sladerunningfox

I’ve found a lot of this to be true over the years but have never tracked down any statistics this precise. Great information! Appreciate you sharing with the forum

@Sladerunningfox

 have you looked at UW v Cougs?  Tks

Slade- thank you for this terrific info

2. Teams that have played each other once or twice and are winless in the season series:

6-1 (85.7%) ATS (any Kenpom)

4-0 (100.0%) ATS (Kenpom within 30 of the better Kenpom)

So are you betting on the teams that are winless?

@Stryc9Nine

 It reads as bet the winless team.

I can’t figure out what number 1 means though. “Teams with the better Kenpom or within 30 of the better Kenpom.” 

@TurdFerguson555

 Yes, bet the winless team. 

The teams that are winless and have a worse Kenpom, but within 30 of the better Kenpom are 5-0 ATS, hence games #1, 7 & 9.