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Currently Back Testing A New System

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Posted: #101
Thanks guys!

UNC Greensboro is looking good up 15 at the half!!

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Posted: #102
The two MS1 game selections went 2-0 on the night.

DePaul +11
Vanderbilt +9

And the teaser won as well with ALL 3 OF THEM WINNING OUTRIGHT!!

Depaul +11................outright by 7!
Vanderbilt +9...................outright by 6!!
UNC Greensboro +14.5..........outright by 29!!!

MS1 game selections are now 17-2.  Can't wait for the next big board like on Saturday where we should have 10 to 15 game selections.  Last Saturday they went 10-0 which means you could have played any number of teasers and they all would have won.  

There is a pretty good chance of history repeating itself this Saturday so get ready to lock n load this weekend.

Up until then, we keep stacking the numbers.



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Posted: #103
I'm loving this system. Thank you very much for doing this. How many of the picks in this system have ended up winning straight up? It feels like a lot have.
 
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Posted: #104
ReelBigFisch...went back through and counted them up and it looks like 9 of the 19 total MS1 selected games were outright winners.  The UNC Greensboro winner today was not an MS1 selection but just a fill in so I could get a teaser for play today.

9 of 19 is only 32% outright winners but it seems like a lot because they really stand out when you are playing a teaser.  Its nothing like the 17-2 winner record for the MS1 which is a whopping 89.5%...just a whisper away from 90%.

I am really looking for the system to hit in the 90% to 95% range for the long term so it is going to have to have some very good runs coming up if it is going to meet my expectations.  Obviously, for it to go 90% in the first 100 selections, there will only be 10 losses and we already have 2 of them in the books.  With 19 games played, 2 losses is right near the mark since 2 of every 20 would be the expected loss rate at 90%.

But we need a lot more games to sample.  The bigger the sample size, the more significant the results..and we want to see if this system can get to those lofty numbers.

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Posted: #105
best of luck..keep up the great works.
 
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Posted: #106
Nice
 
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Posted: #107
If you have 10 to 15 games that qualify Saturday how do you bet them? Do bet different 3 team teasers mixing the games?

Lets say you have 5 teams that qualify. Do you bet 1,2,3 then 1.2.4 then 1,2,5 and so on?
 
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Posted: #108
Amazing!! And its possible to hit that high a percentage in the NFL using good capping and certain teasing methods, I actually hit about 85% this past season.

I believe in your system. Hope it exceeds all our expectations!
 
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Posted: #109
Good luck on your system.  I'll check back later to see tonight's plays, big board, should be some.

 
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Posted: #110
 
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Posted: #111
Any plays today smack???
 
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Posted: #112
Sorry this is soooo late...family problems...

MS1 Selections!!

George Mason +17
Delaware  +13
Fordham +13
Bradley +23.5
UIC  +12
Loyola Chicago  +10

Get them in fast!!
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Posted: #113
Thanks Smack..... missed the first three, got the last three in a tease....bol tonight!
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by Pfotie:

If you have 10 to 15 games that qualify Saturday how do you bet them? Do bet different 3 team teasers mixing the games?

Lets say you have 5 teams that qualify. Do you bet 1,2,3 then 1.2.4 then 1,2,5 and so on?

If we get very lucky, we may have 12 selections for the system on Saturday.  If that is the case, I would divide them up into 4 teasers and flat bet each one...unless you see one you like more than the others...but I would strongly encourage you to flat bet the entire group AND make sure you do NOT reuse any team more than once. This is a money management technique designed to limit losses.

If you put the ONE loser we may have out of 12 selections in all 4 teasers, you have just killed all teasers.  If you have every teaser with different teams the ONE loser we have out of 12 games kills ONLY THAT ONE TEASER...and thats the way you want it.

In a system that produces 90% to 95% winners, your goal is to limit the damage that the 5 to 10% losers can wreak on your record.  Remember, last Saturday we went 10-0.  Say you made 3 teasers and then one 2 team teaser and just flat bet them all.  You just won all your bets.

Say this Saturday, we have 12 selections and you make 4, 3 team teasers...and we go 3-1 on the teasers...you still have a very nice profit.  But like I have said so many times, the chances of us going perfect on any one day are good because those 5% to 10% losers may just not show up at all for weeks on end.  They may show up Sunday to Friday, like they have done this week and popped us for 2 losses.

I'm hoping they don't show up at all on Saturday, but if they do, we play smart and take a decent win by flat betting each teaser so if 1 loss shows up, we lose one teaser ...if 2 losses show up, we might lose 2 teasers and drop the juice...or, those 2 losses could be in the same teaser and we still go 3-1.

Thats my recommendation.



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Posted: #115
Oops..just noticed my math error on the last Saturday numbers...10-0 would have given you 3 teasers with one left over...not enough to play an extra 2 team teaser.

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Posted: #116

loyola chi is away. is this system still picking home teams?

 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by featherstone222:

loyola chi is away. is this system still picking home teams?


Man..nice catch.  Yes, its picking home teams only and that is a flat out mistake.  I was in such a hurry to get them out I identified Loyola Chicago as a home team by mistake.

Take Loyola Chicago off the MS1 selection list guys.

Second time I have to apologize today.  Hope nobody gets hurt off that mistake..jeez.

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Posted: #118
Jeez...really feel bad now.

Went back and rechecked all the others...all home teams and valid MS1 selections.

Family problems are bad.  

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Posted: #119
Just as an fyi...my system has Loyola Chicago winning the game outright by 4 tonight...but since they were not at home, they were not a MS1 pick...

But still a very solid pick in my opinion.

For what thats worth at this point...

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Posted: #120
I put Loyola in my 3 team teaser

Its all good, hope things are good with your family
 
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Posted: #121

Looks like first three were winners...... good job smack!

 
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Posted: #122
Whew...

Loyola Chicago is up 31-19 at the half...I feel a lot better now...

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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:


If we get very lucky, we may have 12 selections for the system on Saturday.  If that is the case, I would divide them up into 4 teasers and flat bet each one...unless you see one you like more than the others...but I would strongly encourage you to flat bet the entire group AND make sure you do NOT reuse any team more than once. This is a money management technique designed to limit losses.

If you put the ONE loser we may have out of 12 selections in all 4 teasers, you have just killed all teasers.  If you have every teaser with different teams the ONE loser we have out of 12 games kills ONLY THAT ONE TEASER...and thats the way you want it.

In a system that produces 90% to 95% winners, your goal is to limit the damage that the 5 to 10% losers can wreak on your record.  Remember, last Saturday we went 10-0.  Say you made 3 teasers and then one 2 team teaser and just flat bet them all.  You just won all your bets.

Say this Saturday, we have 12 selections and you make 4, 3 team teasers...and we go 3-1 on the teasers...you still have a very nice profit.  But like I have said so many times, the chances of us going perfect on any one day are good because those 5% to 10% losers may just not show up at all for weeks on end.  They may show up Sunday to Friday, like they have done this week and popped us for 2 losses.

I'm hoping they don't show up at all on Saturday, but if they do, we play smart and take a decent win by flat betting each teaser so if 1 loss shows up, we lose one teaser ...if 2 losses show up, we might lose 2 teasers and drop the juice...or, those 2 losses could be in the same teaser and we still go 3-1.

Thats my recommendation.





 
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Posted: #124
Thank you for taking the time to answer my question,
 
 
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Posted: #125
looks like the UIC is the one we need to come through not Loyola....
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