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Holmey's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.29.16

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:



If you can not pick then start tailing for money.  This smart man is our answer. 

It was an upset this last weekend where 7 ranked teams were upset.  Today is a new day and kansas have heard about the upset and Kansas will not let that happen to them.  I am seeing them ranked 2 for kansas vs a 25th ranked texas but why the line so small?  Smell fishy?

Maybe the books will think that it will be a close game like down to the wire and a bucket for a win.  Nah, that can't be it.  It is because texas beat #3 Oklahoma at home on saturday.  

Kansas is 13th in the nation in offense and 2nd from down town. 

All the lines and ATS trends favored kansas but why line so small? 

Texas is playing hungry.  They are in a 3 way tied for 2nd so a win here is much needed.  When texas is a small dog, they tend to upset.  These are the only angles that I am seeing for texas but is that enough? 

Kansas is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS run. 
Texas is 10-2 ATS run
All of kansas losses were playing away but that's ok.  They are 8-3 ATS playing away this season. 

I know one thing.  When kansas give a small spread like that and they win the game SU, they covered the ATS too.

I didn't buy the best value for the line so do allow me to tail here.

Taking kansas -3.5 for no$$$$



ESTOY CON KANSAS JC....

RECORD:  2-1






 
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Posted: #77
@tailgating - respect your opinion but I just don't see a let down today.  As you stated, the Jayhawks won a SHARE of the Big 12 title, not THE title. I am actually looking for a let down on the Longhorns side of the ball after that big emotional victory over the Sooners.  GL with your pick.


 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by rf_dawg:


Yeah, 4-0 after 42 minutes. Not much drama but we'll take the easy win. It's usually not that simple but Jong Ajax opened up a can on Dordrecht and it went south quick. 

Thank you Sir  
 
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Posted: #79
@gatorbear
I am in on the KU -2 and KU over 72.5 I believe you gave me the Butler double up Saturday Im rolling with you again!
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by rf_dawg:

Dutch Eerste Divisie (2nd Division) - Jong Ajax vs FC Dordrecht

I'm not loving Monday's hoops slate so time to hop to my favorite soccer league for overs - the Dutch 2nd division.

Jong Ajax hosts FC Dordrecht in Amsterdam.  Dutch football tends to be wide open. Whether it's the strength of the attackers or the lack of defense - either way it leads to a lot of goals.  Many of these players are in their late teens or early 20's and are looking to impress to make a move to the senior club (in Ajax's case) or a transfer to a larger club.

Jong Ajax have had at least 3 goals scored in their last 7 games...and 4 of them went for 4 of more.  

For Dordrecht, 10 of their last 12 have involved 3 goals or more, and 6 of the last 12 saw 4 goals or more scored.

Rangelo Janga has been on fire for Dordrecht netting 14 goals in 24 appearances, while Sam Hendriks has scored a dozen for Ajax.  

While this line is highly juiced even at 3 goals I'm making this my first play of the week.

$$$$ pick: Jong Ajax vs FC Dordrecht over 3 (-123)

 This is the kind of stuff that makes your man close up shop!
Thanks dawg!!
 
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Posted: #81
@Mamba,

Thanks for the extra pressure.  Enjoy the game whatever the outcome.  It should be a good one. Yes, I did have the double Butler play. 


 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by ThatGuy1607:

Ut chattanooga over 143.5

Chattanooga has had some tough matchups last two games, previous game went over btween vmi and them. VMI has no defense and loves to push the ball ( check out vmi - citadel score from saturday) tn chattanooga beat citadel -125-85, sorry guys im on this big 570/500.

BOL
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by TopFlightSports:

No $$$$ for me today because I'm anticipating better spots later in the week but I will have at least one play tonight at topflightsportsinfo dot com

@rfdawg - Great call on Dutch Jupiler League Over 3 earlier.....I tailed the play and by the time I had a chance to check the score it was 4-0 and a win!!!

Heres a tip for those of you who play on offshore books....sometimes these obscure soccer matches might not be listed but might be offered in the "Live Wagering" section.  None of my books offered this line but I found it in the "Live Wagering" section at my offshore book.

Thanks TopFlight and good point on the soccer. For the more obscure leagues the lines are often listed under "European" or "Other", depending on your book. 

Thx to all for the plays today - tailing many of you in the NBA & college hoops tonight. 
 
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Posted: #84
RF- which games are you tailing?
 
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Posted: #85
Trying the nhl

Pitts -1 + dallas -1 parlay

Parlay is for sucker but with nhl -1 parlay style, all needed is a win n my card is safe. Tie is a push. Win by 2 is money. If win here, i might do it again.
X_____________________________
 
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Posted: #86
Additional add 

Tn chattanooga over 67.5 first half 214/200
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by CAMDAB:

RF- which games are you tailing?

Kansas tt o72
Dallas Stars tt o2.5
Chattanooga/VMI o144
Memphis/Denver u205
Indy/Cleveland u205

None of these are my plays but I like the write ups and justifications for each.
 
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Posted: #88
Oops, that Memphis/Denver should be u202
 
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Posted: #89
No $$$$ plays, Cuse came close.

On Syracuse +13'
Kansas o141'
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #90
$$$$(0-0-1)

Had GS -3 for a push. I'm a Thunder fan so I was completely shocked at that finish. But I'm following my team this time. OKC just played a top game of the year and are looking for a win after dropping 2 of the last 3. They've lost earlier this month to Sacramento and won't let them sneak up on them. Rondo and Rudy happy are both sitting in this game. I'm taking OKC -5.5 1st half. 

$$$$ OKC -5.5 1st half $$$$
 
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Posted: #91





Couldn't have asked for a better shooting half out of NC and Syracuse still covered 1st half.

Quote Originally Posted by rebel1927:

$$$$ Play Syracuse +13 against UNC (Play 1st half +7 too!)1. If you look at previous games this year against good teams Syracuse is a tough out - especially in the 1st half. Against Pitt they lost by 14 but were only down 2 at halftime. Against Louisville they lost by 14 again but were down 1 at the half. This trend is not perfect all year but in more cases than not, Syracuse is covering the first half even when they lose to good teams. 2. Syracuse is a bubble team (although on the right side of it) - They will be through the roof for this game where as to UNC, they are coming off yet another tight loss that they think they should have won. It's going to be far easier for Syracuse to be in the right mind state for this game than it will be for UNC.3. UNC is overrated (in my opinion). I have watched over 50% of their games this year start to finish and this is one of the more overrated teams in college basketball as far as night in and night out performance. They just have too many "off" nights. The Duke loss at home, playing with BC for an entire game and only winning by 3, their star pg forgetting how to shoot the ball for 6 weeks, etc. This Syracuse team is seems to be a far more mentally tough and aggressive basketball team. I can't see them losing by 14 on the bubble, prime time, against UNC.

 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by ThatGuy1607:

Additional add 

Tn chattanooga over 67.5 first half 214/200


Horrible 1/2 bball but it made 
 
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Posted: #93
Chatanooga needs to step it up
 
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Posted: #94
While I'm pretty sure coach Smart will have Texas continue to play hard and will not let down, I also think Kansas will be motivated enough to match them as they are on a great run and just look fabulous this month.  I will be tailing those with Kansas.

Here is my $$$$ play

Brooklyn Nets team total under 99

In the month of February Clippers have held opposing teams below 100 in 6 out of 10 games.  At home, they are 2 out 3 in that regard with Golden St being the one exception and can be forgiven.  Since they lost Blake Griffin, they have been relying on their defense more to win ball games it seems.  For the whole season the Clippers give up right around 100 a game on average and in their game at Brooklyn game up exactly 100.

Brooklyn Nets average 97ppg for the season, and in the month of February they are averaging a respectable 104ppg and also 104ppg on the road during that span.  So why bet them to score u99?  Well, for starters their totals were juiced by playing against the likes of Philly, Denver, Sacramento, Phoenix, NY Knicks.  They have played decent on offense their last few games, scoring 104 at Portland and 98 at Utah.

In the end though, the Clippers have been playing very strong defense lately against the not so good teams.  The last subpar team to score over 100 against them was Minnesota back on Feb 2nd, and Minnesota has been playing good offense in 2016 even though they are losing a lot of games.

So again, $$$$ play on Nets TT u99.
 
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Posted: #95
I forgot to mention that I also have Nets TT u24.5 for the 1st quarter and u48.5 for 1st half.  The full game TT under is my $$$$ play though.
 
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Posted: #96
Sorry to keep spamming, should have been more organized before posting.  I am also playing

Nets/Clippers game under 212.5.  In the end, I like this one as much as the Nets TT u99.  I do not see the Clips scoring much over 110 (if at all), so if Nets score < 100 then this game should go under. 

Again, sorry for the multiple posts and thanks to the great discussion on this daily thread.
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:

Sorry to keep spamming, should have been more organized before posting.  I am also playing

Nets/Clippers game under 212.5.  In the end, I like this one as much as the Nets TT u99.  I do not see the Clips scoring much over 110 (if at all), so if Nets score < 100 then this game should go under. 

Again, sorry for the multiple posts and thanks to the great discussion on this daily thread.

Why not? 
 
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Posted: #98
Been looking at Thunder Kings game on and off all day I think there is some value now that the kings are getting +10.5 however I am really looking at numbers here and feel that the totals of 226 is high and am leaning on the under. Here are the trends that have me thinking this way.

These two teams when meeting have gone under in last 10 of 12 meetings.

Kings are 6-2 under against teams with a winning record

Thunder is 10-1 on the under when playing teams with a losing record.

Seth curry is out and rondo is a game time decision so that puts way to much pressure on cousins.

The big bodies from thunder should be able to shut down cousins

The math has the under at 61% so not a great choice but better than average.

Any thoughts from the board?

I may make a small play on the under 226

Need somebody to give me the good vibe to pull the trigger! :-)

Don't think it is a $$$$ play but for the day aside from Kansas at -2.5 I think this may be the best play and have not seen anybody talk about it.



 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by Bigleftygolfer:

Been looking at Thunder Kings game on and off all day I think there is some value now that the kings are getting +10.5 however I am really looking at numbers here and feel that the totals of 226 is high and am leaning on the under. Here are the trends that have me thinking this way.

These two teams when meeting have gone under in last 10 of 12 meetings.

Kings are 6-2 under against teams with a winning record

Thunder is 10-1 on the under when playing teams with a losing record.

Seth curry is out and rondo is a game time decision so that puts way to much pressure on cousins.

The big bodies from thunder should be able to shut down cousins

The math has the under at 61% so not a great choice but better than average.

Any thoughts from the board?

I may make a small play on the under 226

Need somebody to give me the good vibe to pull the trigger! :-)

Don't think it is a $$$$ play but for the day aside from Kansas at -2.5 I think this may be the best play and have not seen anybody talk about it.




With the totals rising to 228 on my book I am going to make this my $$$$ play for the day

Going with under 228 for $$$$ play not the strongest play ever but easily the best of the day for this small board

 
 
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Posted: #100
See post #9.  Perry Ellis came to play tonight.


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