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Holmey's $$$$ Thread THURSDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.03.16

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Posted: #26
For all you degenerates out there in this thread, 3 earlier games today. Here are my leans...

Longwood -3
Rider -5
Presbyterian 7.5
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by TopFlightSports:

I've been singing Cal's praises for the last month...pretty much ever since Tyrone Wallace returned and I think they have the make up of a team that could make a serious run come tournament time and while the +6.5 (+7 some places now) initially made my eyes light up I don't know if I can make a play on Cal in this spot.  

Arizona comes in with revenge here after a one point loss at Cal earlier this year and the Wildcats come in off of back to back road losses.  I still don't by the sweep of the Washington schools as proof Cal can win on the road as they are two of the worst teams in the PAC 12.  Arizona is pissed off and primed to throttle someone and I think this might be a really bad spot for Cal.

If this number weren't so inflated I would be considering a big play on Arizona here but at the same time I have a ton of respect for the way this Cal team is playing right now....think a pretty strong case can be made for both sides.

@Holmey - Interested in what your take is on this one as someone that follows the PAC 12 as closely as you do.  For me this will probably be one that I pass on though as a college basketball fan it's definitely the game I'm looking most forward to tonight!
I'm a Cal fan and I get the same feeling as you...I think Arizona wins and covers at home. They have a bunch of seniors and the house will be packed. I think ARIZ wins by like 10. I think the crowd gives them a big momentum...plus this line looks too fishy.
 
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Posted: #28
$$$$

I'm riding with the Maryland Terps -15 in their home finally vs Illinois. Maryland has a few NBA guys who could play their last game as Terrapins. I think they will try to put up 100 points this game and blowout the fighting illini. GL all.


 
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Posted: #29
arizona is a team i am following to win it all the 25-1 gives them a feel of legitamite. msu north carolina 7-1 as relates on gt bets.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by jrgumpert:




Love the write up and agree with everything, the only thing that worries me is the motivation factor that you mentioned. AZ will be off the charts motivated, will Cal? That's the million dollar question 

i agree with both and i think i am leaning on the revenge factor.... as good as cal has been playing they still arent the best on the road and playing in ZONA is friggin tough.... with their coach leaving and wanting to make the tourny with a nice lil deep run Zona needs this game and i think will come out firing on all cylanders if they play smart ball and dont try and do it all with one guy
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyTeamCali:

$$$$

I'm riding with the Maryland Terps -15 in their home finally vs Illinois. Maryland has a few NBA guys who could play their last game as Terrapins. I think they will try to put up 100 points this game and blowout the fighting illini. GL all.



Maryland has so many mental lapses throughout the game there is no way I would trust them covering this number.  I've watched so many of their games recently where they get up by double digits against a team then get sloppy with the ball and relax on defense letting the other team get back into the game instead of stepping on their throats.  They could easily be up 20 with 2 minutes to go when the starters get subbed out for the scrubs and you get screwed with the backdoor cover. 
Let's go Darwin
 
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Posted: #32
Bubba- why would the OKC be fixed ? For mob people? Why would the team orchestrate it? I'm just wondering a logical reason or cause... Mob is really out there, requires a lot of coordination and could bring the whole league down..
 
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Posted: #33
YTD- 11-8 Arizona -6 GL everyone
 
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Posted: #34
Early degen play will be Longwood -1 first half.  
 
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Posted: #35
[Quote: Originally Posted by nature1970] saw a glitch picked up in another thread. it states if the favorite is less than -200 the under 5.5 hits 22-3 for the season 11-2 recently in nhl hockey wish i could find the man that gave it but havent though i reasearched it and he is correct thought i would share........ i saw this yesterday on this thread
it went 2-0 yesterday capitols and ducks both games finished at 5 the line was o/u 5.5 i did a little research and from feb 21st thru yesterday it is 16 unders 2 overs 
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:

saw a glitch picked up in another thread. it states if the favorite is less than -200 the under 5.5 hits 22-3 for the season 11-2 recently in nhl hockey wish i could find the man that gave it but havent though i reasearched it and he is correct thought i would share........

 

This is not correct.  The ML Valuation must be MORE THAN -200 with an over/under 5.5 total goals.....take the under.

I've been playing this for some time now and it's been cashing at 82%.

Both the Caps game and the Anaheim game fit this criteria last night and both hit. 

There are no plays tonight in the NHL fitting this system.

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:

saw a glitch picked up in another thread. it states if the favorite is less than -200 the under 5.5 hits 22-3 for the season 11-2 recently in nhl hockey wish i could find the man that gave it but havent though i reasearched it and he is correct thought i would share........

you're looking for jreno...

QUOTE Originally Posted by jreno:

My $$$$$$ play is 
capitals vs maple leafs under 5.5 / ducks vs Canadiens under 5.5 
PARLAY 
NHL SUPER SYSTEM
when a team opens -200 or more and the total is set @ 5.5 you go under.
its documented 45-4 this year. Go back and check if you dont believe me
 
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Posted: #38
Hi guys...first of all, kudos to USC for restarting the thread. I have been following for the last few months, but not posted. 

I would be very careful playing Maryland tonight. I am a big Maryland fan and watch every game, but I would stay far away from them right now based on their play in February. 

1. They tend to play down to their competition so 15 points is hard to justify them being able to cover. 
2. They are a completely different team when Melo Trimble is playing at the caliber everyone thought he would play at this year. He has been forcing, pressing, and think it's in his head that he can't make shots right now. I would not be confident backing MD without Melo firing on all cylinders. 

However, if/when Melo Trimble gets his act together (and it could be a game like tonight), that is when Maryland will be dangerous the rest of March. 

Based on their form as of late, I would say the play would be Illinois +15 (if making a play...no play for me). 

Keep up the good work guys.  
 
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Posted: #39
@Hattrick11,  You're kind of both right on the NHL system play with -200 favorites/under 5.5.  You're right that it COSTS you MORE to wager on the favorite....but mathematically speaking -210 is less than -200.

Just a math problem...
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

Well I took my two worst beats of 2016 last night with Huskies and OKC and still ended up for the day so I am trying to remain as positive as possible and wanted to give my thanks to JRENO and JIMC for their picks.  My last leg of a "just for fun" 6 team parlay was Washington -9.  I did hedge at half with WSU but only for 25% of payout.Warning: Rant Ahead!  First let me start out by saying OKC was a .1U play.  This is usually my smallest play and I did it because I was already up .7U on the day and who wants to ruin a good day?The OKC game will keep me off of the NBA unless there is a really good spot someone posts and I tail.  Although I have witnessed meltdowns before I have never seen one so designed.   I watched OKC only get 3 men down the floor on defense for about 3 minutes.  I also saw Durant dribble into the defender 4 separate times in the 4th quarter literally giving him the ball.  OKC had their lowest scoring 4th quarter of the season ( I did not research it but I would bet it was a top 5 if not the worst scoring quarter in the history of the Thunder). Well I could keep going but I am going to cut myself off here.  I don't ever want to believe in a game being fixed but it is hard to dispute what my eyes saw.  I do believe that fixed games are few and far between but there may be a little point shaving here and there.  Random craziness and spurts such as the Huskies/WSU game last night do happen.  On the other hand with OKC, I am not sure if I can ever forget what I witnessed last night in the NBA. Anways I feel better after typing this and now it is time to move on to today. I have 4 plays that I am chewing on now and will post a $$$$ this afternoon and hope to get back to the W column.

I always appreciate your picks and knowledge. I looked at the numbers and okc is a great first quarter pick usually. Something to keep in mind for future
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

Early degen play will be Longwood -1 first half.  

  love me some early degen action. 

And I hear you on the OKC game, I had the 2ndH Over at 106. Even with a combined 57 in the 3rd, and LA scoring 35 by themselves in the 4th....it still came up short due to the OKC meltdown. 
Unreal....
 
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Posted: #42

Hey guys... I wanted to pop in this morning with a big "thanks" for last nights insights!!

First off I'm new to the covers community and I came across this particular thread a little over a week ago. I spent the last week just checking out who contributed and reviewing most of your picks, in addition to your picks, the insight provided by many of you is just beyond awesome.

Last night I pulled the trigger and decided I was going to roll with just the members of this group.

After reviewing all your picks and doing a little additional research, I pulled my top 6 plays - Butler, Prov., Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Oregon, and Washington and I put them into a 3 team round robin parlay (20 plays)...  I was one team loss away  from hitting all 20 parlays. Still 5 out of 6 six teams crushed the play.

Also 3 out of 4 straight up w/ Ole miss, Wisc, Oregon, and Wash,

And I topped it all this off with a two game NHL strategy parlay courtesy of jreno :)

Some really close nail biters... but still ended up being a really great night!!

Many thanks for to USC_Holmey for an awesome thread, to those who gave the insight on my above picks, and kudos to all (too many to name) who contribute.

Keep up the great work and Good Luck to all!

Now it's time to head to the beach... sit under a palm tree... have a cold one... and toast to you all

#cheers #letstakethemansmoney
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

Early degen play will be Longwood -1 first half.  

Deign with a day off of work . Riding wit ya for half-a-dollar! 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

Early degen play will be Longwood -1 first half.  
JUST FYI....YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO WATCH THE GAME ONLINE ON THE CONFERENCE WEBSITE

"Bet the farm!" "GO WHERE THE MONEY IS!"
 
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Posted: #45
Some of you good cappers take a look at that Fl. Gulf Coast/N.Flor. game and tell me what you think. Last time they played last month Gulf Coast beat them by 16 at home. They are getting 7 or 7.5 if you can still find it......line is going down. I threw a 1/2 unit on ML and a couple on the +7. 

What do you big dogs think ? 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Kobe_V24:


i agree with both and i think i am leaning on the revenge factor.... as good as cal has been playing they still arent the best on the road and playing in ZONA is friggin tough.... with their coach leaving and wanting to make the tourny with a nice lil deep run Zona needs this game and i think will come out firing on all cylanders if they play smart ball and dont try and do it all with one guy

FYI.. Miller isn't going anywhere.  This az team is definitely down this year.  I follow them closer than anything.  While their record looks good, they're definitely down.  The reason their record looks good is because we really haven't played anybody.  Toughest home game this year was against oregon and we lost to them.  Other notable home wins are boise st, washington, usc and ucla.  That's about it.  Non cons schedule was nothing special at all.  best win was against gonzaga, but they've fallen off the face of the earth.  Providence was ranked earlier in the year but they have fallen as well, and we lost to them at a neutral site.  This team is struggling to find an identity and it's showing. Even in our wins this year it hasn't been pretty.  They just can't put together a full game.  We'll see what happens tonight, the only factor they have on their side is the McKale which is a ridiculously tough place to play because of the fans, but that can only take you so far.  Talent eventually gets exposed and defense get's exposed as well.  We'll see what happens.  I still think cal +6.5 is the play with hopes of az winning by 3-4.
 
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Posted: #47
WGC Cadillac Championship 

Course overview: This week the top in the world are playing at Trump National Doral. This is a bombers course playing at 7,543 yards.It plays as one of the hardest courses on tour each year but luckily for some..there is no cut.

I didn't have time to write this earlier and unfortunately some players have already gone off, but there is still time to take some matchups.

For Doral, year in and year out, long hitters seem to do well here. Its a monster of a course so i look for long accurate hitters, as well as players who are good with their long irons (175 yds n out). Must take advantage of par 5's here because there will be plenty of bogeys. 

Tournament Matchups

Louis Oostuizen Ev vs Patrick Reed 

This is my favorite matchup so far. Louie is coming off a win which i know some people don't like but he plays well here. He finished 6th here last year while Reed finished shot +2 and finished T23. Patrick Reed just missed the cut last week at the Honda Classic and his game did not seem together and at this course...thats gonna lead to very high scores

Rafa Cabrera Bello -125 vs Matthew Fitzpatrick

Rafa Cabrera Bello had to T2 finished last month and I see him playing pretty well here. The main reason i like this pick is because Fitzpatrick is coming off a missed cut at the Honda Classic, and really hasn't been playing well. Last month on the European tour he placed 75th, 45th, 71st. This is a big stage for him and i dont think he has the experience to play well. I see him near the bottom of the leader board. 

I'm rushed for time but i will be back tomorrow will more 2nd round matchups. I believe betting on first round matchups are iffy..ya never know if that golf swing showed up with that player for the week. Golf is a weird sport...


 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by beardown1123:


FYI.. Miller isn't going anywhere.  This az team is definitely down this year.  I follow them closer than anything.  While their record looks good, they're definitely down.  The reason their record looks good is because we really haven't played anybody.  Toughest home game this year was against oregon and we lost to them.  Other notable home wins are boise st, washington, usc and ucla.  That's about it.  Non cons schedule was nothing special at all.  best win was against gonzaga, but they've fallen off the face of the earth.  Providence was ranked earlier in the year but they have fallen as well, and we lost to them at a neutral site.  This team is struggling to find an identity and it's showing. Even in our wins this year it hasn't been pretty.  They just can't put together a full game.  We'll see what happens tonight, the only factor they have on their side is the McKale which is a ridiculously tough place to play because of the fans, but that can only take you so far.  Talent eventually gets exposed and defense get's exposed as well.  We'll see what happens.  I still think cal +6.5 is the play with hopes of az winning by 3-4.

My sentiments exactly.  You guys should all take a look at Arizona's schedule and see how you feel.  I was not impressed by their resume.  Don't let the history and brand name of this team influence your thoughts.  There's big value in playing Cal here IMO and I still feel just as confident as I did from the start, even after reading the pro AZ posts.
 
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Posted: #49
@Hoyasaxa  ....  Just wanted to share what I saw about the OKC game that is all and nothing more.  I am not a conspiracy theory person but I can't change what I saw.  I have no reasoning for why a team would do what they did and am not looking to argue about it either.  Cheers
 
 
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Posted: #50
Good luck today everyone.........


Just a friendly reminder.  It's the conference tournament time of year, so make SURE you are checking where games are played, because a lot of them are obviously on neutral courts.  You always see plays posted this year with Team A is 14-2 at home, when they aren't at home.  I only bring this up, because I'm sure I've done it too, and repeatedly see it year in, year out.


Here are a few soccer fades for you.  Had a horrible day yesterday, 2-5.  Down about a unit on the week.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=36&sub=102247699

Birmingham - Hull UN 2.25 (-145) 1.45/1.0

Espanyol ML (-105) 1.05/1.0

Barcelona TT UN 3.0 (-115) 0.575/0.50

Barcelona TT UN 3.5 (-155) 0.775/0.50


 
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