Yeah, it was in yesterday's post and had said any game where the favorite opens at -200 or more and the over/under opens at 5.5, the under hits at that rate. Sure helped me yesterday with both of those games going under, though it was close at 5 goals scored each game. I wonder if this applies to baseball also? Hmm...will do a little research.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheBigOnion:
Over -200 is worlds different than under -200.
Yeah, it was in yesterday's post and had said any game where the favorite opens at -200 or more and the over/under opens at 5.5, the under hits at that rate. Sure helped me yesterday with both of those games going under, though it was close at 5 goals scored each game. I wonder if this applies to baseball also? Hmm...will do a little research.
Going to pull the trigger on Rice/Charlotte O163.5 for my $$$$ play of the night.
Trends I love for this matchup:
- Rice games have gone OVER in 18 of 23 this year and at home 10 of 11 have gone OVER.
- Charlotte has scored over 80 points in 4 of their last 6 and have topped 100 in 3 of those (what the what?)
- Rice has gone over in all 6 games they have been a home dog.
- Charlotte has gone over in each of their 2 games that they have been a road fav. Charlotte as an outright favorite have seen their games go over in 7 of 10
- Following a win, Charlotte's games have gone over 8 of 11 times
- Rice has gone over in 12 of 15 conference games, and 6 of 7 at home.
So my $$$$ play of the night is Rice/Charlotte O163.5
YTD: 0-1
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Going to pull the trigger on Rice/Charlotte O163.5 for my $$$$ play of the night.
Trends I love for this matchup:
- Rice games have gone OVER in 18 of 23 this year and at home 10 of 11 have gone OVER.
- Charlotte has scored over 80 points in 4 of their last 6 and have topped 100 in 3 of those (what the what?)
- Rice has gone over in all 6 games they have been a home dog.
- Charlotte has gone over in each of their 2 games that they have been a road fav. Charlotte as an outright favorite have seen their games go over in 7 of 10
- Following a win, Charlotte's games have gone over 8 of 11 times
- Rice has gone over in 12 of 15 conference games, and 6 of 7 at home.
So my $$$$ play of the night is Rice/Charlotte O163.5
General note on Conference Tournaments...I've seen dogs get hot and cover 2,3, even 4 games to the end or semi's...maybe someone has stats on this but it seems like value in game 2 and 3 especially...these teams have nothing to lose and the opponents usually do...or even worse are locked in to the dance...
I love playing dogs on a mission with no expectations vs. 19 year olds either scared or careless...Austin Peay could be an early candidate...
Please advise on suspects as we play lots of these scenarios in the next 8 days...
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General note on Conference Tournaments...I've seen dogs get hot and cover 2,3, even 4 games to the end or semi's...maybe someone has stats on this but it seems like value in game 2 and 3 especially...these teams have nothing to lose and the opponents usually do...or even worse are locked in to the dance...
I love playing dogs on a mission with no expectations vs. 19 year olds either scared or careless...Austin Peay could be an early candidate...
Please advise on suspects as we play lots of these scenarios in the next 8 days...
HIT OLE MISS LAST NIGHT.....HERE'S ANOTHER $$$$ TONIGHT!
UCONN AT SMU
20-9 24-4
GONNA ROLL WITH THE MUSTANGS -4.5 TONIGHT
HERE'S WHY.....I CAN SUM IT UP IN 2 WORDS: SENIOR NIGHT
LAST HOME GAME OF THE YEAR, YOU ARE PLAYING AT HOME...MOODY WILL BE ROCKING TONIGHT WHERE YOU ARE 15-1....YOU'VE WON 3 IN A ROW, YOU WANT REVENGE AGAINST UCONN WHO BEAT YOU LAST MONTH.....AND YOU CAN STILL WIN THE CONFERENCE...NIC MOORE AND MARKUS KENNEDY WILL GO OFF TONIGHT!
$$$$ PLAY
SMU -4.5
LET'S WIN BIG!!
"Bet the farm!" "GO WHERE THE MONEY IS!"
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THURSDAY 3/3/16
HIT OLE MISS LAST NIGHT.....HERE'S ANOTHER $$$$ TONIGHT!
UCONN AT SMU
20-9 24-4
GONNA ROLL WITH THE MUSTANGS -4.5 TONIGHT
HERE'S WHY.....I CAN SUM IT UP IN 2 WORDS: SENIOR NIGHT
LAST HOME GAME OF THE YEAR, YOU ARE PLAYING AT HOME...MOODY WILL BE ROCKING TONIGHT WHERE YOU ARE 15-1....YOU'VE WON 3 IN A ROW, YOU WANT REVENGE AGAINST UCONN WHO BEAT YOU LAST MONTH.....AND YOU CAN STILL WIN THE CONFERENCE...NIC MOORE AND MARKUS KENNEDY WILL GO OFF TONIGHT!
@jimc does it bother you that Uconn has only lost by more than 5 points only a few times this season?
UCONN IS A VERY DISCIPLINED TEAM THAT IS USUALLY IN MOST GAMES. I JUST THINK THE EMOTION AND ENERGY ALONG WITH TALENT IS GOING TO CARRY SMU IN THIS GAME.
"Bet the farm!" "GO WHERE THE MONEY IS!"
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Quote Originally Posted by mrnotoriousman:
@jimc does it bother you that Uconn has only lost by more than 5 points only a few times this season?
UCONN IS A VERY DISCIPLINED TEAM THAT IS USUALLY IN MOST GAMES. I JUST THINK THE EMOTION AND ENERGY ALONG WITH TALENT IS GOING TO CARRY SMU IN THIS GAME.
Dallas has absolutely killed it on offense on this recent homestand...averaging 120 PPG. Things shouldn't be any different with the lowly Kings in town...whom's defense is usually left at home. Then again Kings don't actually even know the what defense means.
Last time out Kings didn't have Rondo. He's playing tonight. happy is expected to suit up as well. happy tore it up last time out against the Mavs...and so did Cousins. Kings missed happy on offense at Memphis and having him back tonight will allow them to have some sort of offensive attack alongside Cousins...whom Dallas simply has no answer for. Cousins may easily score above 35 pts tonight.
Dallas will put up at least a 120 spot. Question will then be if the Kings can put up similar offense considering the total is at 222.5...can they score at least 100 points? With Rondo and happy...it's an easy yes.
Final score should easily sit in the mid-230's for this game.
Give me this one for my $$$$ play tonight Holmey.
Thanks and good luck to the brotherhood in here.
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$$$$ Play
Over Sacramento/Dallas 22.5
Dallas has absolutely killed it on offense on this recent homestand...averaging 120 PPG. Things shouldn't be any different with the lowly Kings in town...whom's defense is usually left at home. Then again Kings don't actually even know the what defense means.
Last time out Kings didn't have Rondo. He's playing tonight. happy is expected to suit up as well. happy tore it up last time out against the Mavs...and so did Cousins. Kings missed happy on offense at Memphis and having him back tonight will allow them to have some sort of offensive attack alongside Cousins...whom Dallas simply has no answer for. Cousins may easily score above 35 pts tonight.
Dallas will put up at least a 120 spot. Question will then be if the Kings can put up similar offense considering the total is at 222.5...can they score at least 100 points? With Rondo and happy...it's an easy yes.
Final score should easily sit in the mid-230's for this game.
"My $$$$$$ play is capitals vs maple leafs under 5.5 / ducks vs Canadiens under 5.5 PARLAY NHL SUPER SYSTEMwhen a team opens -200 or more and the total is set @ 5.5 you go under.its documented 45-4 this year. Go back and check if you dont believe me" ...Jreno from yesterdays thread
Yup no system today. Only -200 or above and maintains it. Total must be 5.5
Do you think it would work if you take the adjusted line of 6 when a team is favored by more than -200. For example, tonight Minnesota was favored over -200 but the o/u was only 5. I took it at an adjusted 6 for -230 (High I know but if it works money is money). Not sure if this trends the same though.
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Quote Originally Posted by jreno:
"My $$$$$$ play is capitals vs maple leafs under 5.5 / ducks vs Canadiens under 5.5 PARLAY NHL SUPER SYSTEMwhen a team opens -200 or more and the total is set @ 5.5 you go under.its documented 45-4 this year. Go back and check if you dont believe me" ...Jreno from yesterdays thread
Yup no system today. Only -200 or above and maintains it. Total must be 5.5
Do you think it would work if you take the adjusted line of 6 when a team is favored by more than -200. For example, tonight Minnesota was favored over -200 but the o/u was only 5. I took it at an adjusted 6 for -230 (High I know but if it works money is money). Not sure if this trends the same though.
In LA now training for new job! Jumping on The Cal Bandwagon! Miss getting drunk in Larry Blakes Blues Bar back in the Day! Love teams that are in Hot Mode!!
Jack Ryan
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In LA now training for new job! Jumping on The Cal Bandwagon! Miss getting drunk in Larry Blakes Blues Bar back in the Day! Love teams that are in Hot Mode!!
Ok I'm here with my $$$$$ play. I'm running a little late today my bad fellas but my play is late so jump on this one
$$$$HAWAII$$$$ -8.5 (Jumped from -7)
I'm loving what Hawaii is doing this year statically since I can't catch any of their games so I have to trust these numbers and the numbers are in their favor and the numbers of the team they're playing against it pretty pathetic to say the least .
USC lock me in. $$$$ HAWAII 8.5 $$$$$
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Ok I'm here with my $$$$$ play. I'm running a little late today my bad fellas but my play is late so jump on this one
$$$$HAWAII$$$$ -8.5 (Jumped from -7)
I'm loving what Hawaii is doing this year statically since I can't catch any of their games so I have to trust these numbers and the numbers are in their favor and the numbers of the team they're playing against it pretty pathetic to say the least .
General note on Conference Tournaments...I've seen dogs get hot and cover 2,3, even 4 games to the end or semi's...maybe someone has stats on this but it seems like value in game 2 and 3 especially...these teams have nothing to lose and the opponents usually do...or even worse are locked in to the dance...
I love playing dogs on a mission with no expectations vs. 19 year olds either scared or careless...Austin Peay could be an early candidate...
Please advise on suspects as we play lots of these scenarios in the next 8 days...
Examples as we speak...Austin Peay, Florida Gulf Coast!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
General note on Conference Tournaments...I've seen dogs get hot and cover 2,3, even 4 games to the end or semi's...maybe someone has stats on this but it seems like value in game 2 and 3 especially...these teams have nothing to lose and the opponents usually do...or even worse are locked in to the dance...
I love playing dogs on a mission with no expectations vs. 19 year olds either scared or careless...Austin Peay could be an early candidate...
Please advise on suspects as we play lots of these scenarios in the next 8 days...
Examples as we speak...Austin Peay, Florida Gulf Coast!
Dallas has absolutely killed it on offense on this recent homestand...averaging 120 PPG. Things shouldn't be any different with the lowly Kings in town...whom's defense is usually left at home. Then again Kings don't actually even know the what defense means.
Last time out Kings didn't have Rondo. He's playing tonight. happy is expected to suit up as well. happy tore it up last time out against the Mavs...and so did Cousins. Kings missed happy on offense at Memphis and having him back tonight will allow them to have some sort of offensive attack alongside Cousins...whom Dallas simply has no answer for. Cousins may easily score above 35 pts tonight.
Dallas will put up at least a 120 spot. Question will then be if the Kings can put up similar offense considering the total is at 222.5...can they score at least 100 points? With Rondo and happy...it's an easy yes.
Final score should easily sit in the mid-230's for this game.
Give me this one for my $$$$ play tonight Holmey.
Thanks and good luck to the brotherhood in here.
Over not looking too good bro. I tailed this tonight
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Quote Originally Posted by SikSenses:
$$$$ Play
Over Sacramento/Dallas 22.5
Dallas has absolutely killed it on offense on this recent homestand...averaging 120 PPG. Things shouldn't be any different with the lowly Kings in town...whom's defense is usually left at home. Then again Kings don't actually even know the what defense means.
Last time out Kings didn't have Rondo. He's playing tonight. happy is expected to suit up as well. happy tore it up last time out against the Mavs...and so did Cousins. Kings missed happy on offense at Memphis and having him back tonight will allow them to have some sort of offensive attack alongside Cousins...whom Dallas simply has no answer for. Cousins may easily score above 35 pts tonight.
Dallas will put up at least a 120 spot. Question will then be if the Kings can put up similar offense considering the total is at 222.5...can they score at least 100 points? With Rondo and happy...it's an easy yes.
Final score should easily sit in the mid-230's for this game.
Give me this one for my $$$$ play tonight Holmey.
Thanks and good luck to the brotherhood in here.
Over not looking too good bro. I tailed this tonight
I have benefited from this thread and I would like to help contribute.
TEMPLE -4
I follow these teams somewhat closely and see a clear dichotomy between these teams. Memphis on the road is absolute garbage. 1-7 SU and have lost to some pretty bad teams. I know because I have foolishly backed them and at times they cannot score.
Now we have a Temple team that never gives up...see Houston game. They fight till the end. Only losses in Feb are Villanova and on the road against Tulsa in a major letdown spot and Tulsa is actually a pretty solid team. So I am throwing that result out.
Temple is solidly in the hunt to win the AAC vs Memphis playing an 8-9 AAC record? They couldn't win on the road this whole season and now with nothing to play for should just be that much more unmotivated. Also last home game for Temple which gives a little more home spirit.
Just for a quick backing of my play with some stats...Temple Defensive Efficiency at home is in the Top 50. Memphis one of the top teams in Defensive Efficiency at home but on the road...drum roll please...300th in Defensive Efficiency. Surprise Surprise. This team is terrible.
Temple is not an offensive juggernaut by any means but if you say home court is -3 for a regular game, then the obvious difference between Memphis at home vs away has to factor out much higher and -4 seems like a fit to me. Temple lost by 2 at Memphis. That's not a whole lot of points to win by at home that instills confidence in a Memphis team that plays so much worse on the road. The o/u is actually quite high at 148.5 which makes me think Temple comes out and just lays it on for a -7 to -10 victory.
Any takes from you guys on this game?
Thanks and BOL
I have to give you props for this pick and write up. I tailed you on this play because you made an excellent argument to take Temple. You didn't tell me that X beat Y by XX points and Y lost to Q by XX points so Temple must be the play. You gave good reasons why you saw an edge over the wise-guys that only saw Temple 3.5 points better.
Nice job!
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:
I have benefited from this thread and I would like to help contribute.
TEMPLE -4
I follow these teams somewhat closely and see a clear dichotomy between these teams. Memphis on the road is absolute garbage. 1-7 SU and have lost to some pretty bad teams. I know because I have foolishly backed them and at times they cannot score.
Now we have a Temple team that never gives up...see Houston game. They fight till the end. Only losses in Feb are Villanova and on the road against Tulsa in a major letdown spot and Tulsa is actually a pretty solid team. So I am throwing that result out.
Temple is solidly in the hunt to win the AAC vs Memphis playing an 8-9 AAC record? They couldn't win on the road this whole season and now with nothing to play for should just be that much more unmotivated. Also last home game for Temple which gives a little more home spirit.
Just for a quick backing of my play with some stats...Temple Defensive Efficiency at home is in the Top 50. Memphis one of the top teams in Defensive Efficiency at home but on the road...drum roll please...300th in Defensive Efficiency. Surprise Surprise. This team is terrible.
Temple is not an offensive juggernaut by any means but if you say home court is -3 for a regular game, then the obvious difference between Memphis at home vs away has to factor out much higher and -4 seems like a fit to me. Temple lost by 2 at Memphis. That's not a whole lot of points to win by at home that instills confidence in a Memphis team that plays so much worse on the road. The o/u is actually quite high at 148.5 which makes me think Temple comes out and just lays it on for a -7 to -10 victory.
Any takes from you guys on this game?
Thanks and BOL
I have to give you props for this pick and write up. I tailed you on this play because you made an excellent argument to take Temple. You didn't tell me that X beat Y by XX points and Y lost to Q by XX points so Temple must be the play. You gave good reasons why you saw an edge over the wise-guys that only saw Temple 3.5 points better.
I have to give you props for this pick and write up. I tailed you on this play because you made an excellent argument to take Temple. You didn't tell me that X beat Y by XX points and Y lost to Q by XX points so Temple must be the play. You gave good reasons why you saw an edge over the wise-guys that only saw Temple 3.5 points better.
Nice job!
Agree...really good write up and nice hit!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:
I have to give you props for this pick and write up. I tailed you on this play because you made an excellent argument to take Temple. You didn't tell me that X beat Y by XX points and Y lost to Q by XX points so Temple must be the play. You gave good reasons why you saw an edge over the wise-guys that only saw Temple 3.5 points better.
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