Holmey's $$$$ Thread THURSDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.03.16

its 148.5 and growing NOW?

$$$$ Missouri State vs Drake Under 138

The first round of the tourney with the bottom 4 seeds kicks off tonight in St Louis…Let the Arch Madness begin.  This game is at a neutral site 3 hours away from the Bears and 5 from the Bulldogs. Drake hasn't won a game on the road all year at 0-12 (2-2 neutral) and is coming off a big Overtime win at home in their final game of the regular season (130 total points).  Drake was very happy to close the season with a win at home and honestly I think they keep the defensive mentality from last game going here and pull out a low scoring win.  These teams have met twice with Drake losing by 9 both times.  One game went under and one went over (both games average out to 131 ppg total).  Drake won the first half of both previous meetings and they did it with defense and longer possessions.  Both of those halves were the lowest scoring of the two meetings and Drake knows this needs to be the game plan for both halves of this one.  What really makes this play a lock is that in Missouri State’s last game of the season they lost a starter  for the season with a broken hand, Jarred Dixon.  In both games against Drake Dixon dropped 10 and 12 pts and led the team in steals by a large margin.  Missouri State now has 4 players on the bench, all guards who could score out for the season (Ruder, Williams, Roundtree and Dixon).  Their rotation will be short-handed (no pun intended) and I think points will be really hard to come by especially from the perimeter.  Last year Missouri State and Drake combined for 98 points in the first round of the MVC tourney and that was with one of their games going to OT.  Look for a whole lotta defense and a little offense in this one.

$$$$ Missouri State vs Drake Under 138