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January Hoops

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Posted: #1176

Quote Originally Posted by PoRToRoKPuRo:

Thanks for all the hard work you do Nropp....

incredible work

 
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Posted: #1177

Quote Originally Posted by CrackRat:

Bradley over is a FISTING.....

the sorry fader CrackRat talking before the game was over and took another MONSTER up his CrackA$$ again!

Great picks Nropp!

 
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Posted: #1178
outstanding work nropp, thanks again
 
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Posted: #1179
Nropp,

Good stuff.

Do you watch a ton of games? Record them for later viewing?

Or do you just read a ton?

Maybe you read the local papers for insight?

Not trying to bug you with 20 questions, but your answers to these might help myself and others who are looking to improve their skills.

Thanks. GL
 
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Posted: #1180
 
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Posted: #1181
good shit n.
 
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Posted: #1182
Quote Originally Posted by JackSmack:

I kinda like Detroit 1st half, valpo 2nd. Take a look at valpos last 3 games and what they did in the 1st half, to what they did in the 2nd.

YSU   29     26

Valpo  34    45

 

Cleve ST  21      37

Valpo        18      46

 

Valpo         33      38

Wright st   40       20

 

Pretty impressive at the break, should I put any stock in that or is that meaningless to you. Just wanting some advice from the Master.

 

 


Generally don't put too much stock in halftimes. Wish I had a reason, but I don't.
 
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Posted: #1183
Neil anything early today..??
 
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Posted: #1184
Quote Originally Posted by MENACE:

Keep it up Ropp.  You're late Saturday night plays and MSU/Brad over tonight were helpful.

 

Just Curious...Do you think Ohio State is the best team in college basketball (today)?  I know Kyrie Irving *could* put a damper on that.  I have Bucks 1, Duke 2 and Kansas 3.


I suppose I can grant them the top spot in the country at least for a week. Reign ends January 22nd @ Noon.


In all honesty, Motta's put together a monster of a team. They deserve to be #1, followed by Pitt & SDST.
 
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Posted: #1185
Quote Originally Posted by KRRASHH:

Neil anything early today..??

Niagara
 
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Posted: #1186
Quote Originally Posted by ARABdough:

Nropp Thank you sir with all of your plays it is much appreciated, I was wondering if you could tell me where you get your info for the college basketball games and I was wondering if you would ever help myself become a good college bball capper??

Study offseason, study recruits, study coaches. Tie things up on gameday. The more you do when nothing is going on makes the grind easier.
 
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Posted: #1187
Got it +3 Thanks..!!
 
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Posted: #1188
Quote Originally Posted by willywagtail:

Nropp, thoughts on the NC GREENSBORO, THE CITADEL and Appalachian St's games today?



I'm avoiding Greensboro at all costs. Total seemed a bit low, but didn't look any further. Citadel/Samford game gets my vote for the most boring game on the card. Couldn't pay me to watch these two teams. Appalachian State is just a matter of finding confidence. They have so much talent, just haven't put it together, and it's getting to a point in the season, where I'm not sure they have the time to do so.
 
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Posted: #1189

New to the forum.

 

Thanks for your picks Nropp.

 

So is Niagra +3 a play of yours?

 

 
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Posted: #1190
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

Nropp,

Good stuff.

Do you watch a ton of games? Record them for later viewing?

Or do you just read a ton?

Maybe you read the local papers for insight?

Not trying to bug you with 20 questions, but your answers to these might help myself and others who are looking to improve their skills.

Thanks. GL

1) Watch replays - linky
2) Read offseason stuff the most. Just my style. If I can get a read on a majority of these teams prior to any of them even touching a basketball or playing a game, I have a better feeling for what holds value and what doesn't. 
3) Local papers help a bit in terms of searching for key items (motivation, emotion, etc...)

Biggest thing overlooked by majority?

4) Coaches

GL
 
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Posted: #1191
any insight on the st. peters game?
 
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Posted: #1192
1/16 Results: 13-9 week, 14 units profit. DNP’s were 10-5. Some pretty awful performances by quite a few teams yesterday.  

Sides: 48-31, +28.70
Totals: 39-20, +22.80
DNP: 64-50


1/17 Notes: I value Villanova quite a bit more than Uconn in the Big East while looking at the long term possibilities of both teams. Coming into the year, Villanova had quite the favorable schedule in the conference which was the main reason. I’m not sure I like the points anything under a possession tonight though. The next two road games will realistically be their toughest road trip of the year with Uconn and Syracuse. They don’t play another tough road game until the last week of the season, and they haven’t faced a tough hostile team on the road yet this year. Even their home games have been favorable thus far in terms of scheduling: Their five most recent home wins all came against teams that were coming in on the end of a road trip. I think they’re a tad bit overvalued thus far on the year, but I rate them better than Uconn, so I will shy away. They go on the road for three now, should know more about them by trip’s end. One thing I will say about them, their defense has been more impressive than past years. Any game is winnable when you have a good defense and a few senior guards. As for the total in this one, I’d probably point to the under. It’s scary, but Villanova’s strengths are getting into the paint in a different number of ways and scoring. They aren’t relying on the three ball as much as they have in past years, and Uconn’s strength is defending the paint. They do it just about as good as any team in the country. I point to Kansas State, and will take a shot. With Kelly back, they should get back to being the same dominant team we saw in the beginning of the year. I think Pullen is still trying to do too much, but it’s the reason they are still competitive. They’re 1-2 in conference, they won the only game with Kelly in the lineup, and this is by far their toughest test of the year the next two games with Mizzou and Texas A&M back-to-back on the road. This is another game where strength versus weakness butt heads. Mizzou will get you into an up and down game, take tons of risks in doing so, just so they can get up and down as that’s what they’re built for. It’s going to be a big factor in this game, and I think it favors Kansas State. By going up and down, they don’t have to rely on their lack of scoring from role players in the half court setting and these other players will be getting involved in transition by Missouri taking too many chances. Pullen doesn’t have to be Mr. Everything in this type of game, and that is a huge benefit. They’ve done awfully well against teams that are depending on steals under Martin’s tenure. As for Missouri, it’s quite the opposite. They’ll struggle when a team tries to get you in the half court b/c they depend on so many points coming out of transition. Defensively, Kansas State would like to get you into a half court, and let their defense shine. Missouri has had the luxury of playing teams with a similar makeup in style for a little over a month, aside from Nebraska. They didn’t look good that Nebraska game, and it could be a product of the Nebraska offense which resulted in an 8 point loss. This is really the type of game that Kansas State likes, they have advantages in many spots. I have pointed out my man-love for Pitt a few times this year. I’m just not impressed with Syracuse, yes they are undefeated at 18-0 (signature win Michigan State, technically a home game?). The remainder: @ Pitt, Villanova, @ Marquette, @ Uconn, Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Villanova, @ Georgetown. The collapse I predicted is coming shortly I believe. If not, props to Beyheim. It should be a good game. Kansas probably should be favored, but I’m not sure I would go over a possession, as they haven’t really had a test on the road yet. Baylor looked awful Saturday, but that Iowa State defense is goooooooooood. It’s an enjoyable day of basketball with the big four games I have mentioned here, just don’t let anything that happens tonight influence your overall thoughts on these teams. Just one night of basketball. These bigger teams have bigger names on them for a reason, any of them can go off at any point. I would point to the over here in this Baylor/Kansas matchup. Both teams play similar styles, similar matchups. Both should be familiar with what they’re facing which cancels out each team’s defenses, which both are pretty good...
 
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Posted: #1193
Nropp, is Loyola MD +4.5 a good play
 
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Posted: #1194
...Aside from the big games, there are some pretty decent matchups on the rest of the action. I value Fresno quite a bit more than Idaho, but probably not outside of a possession. They’ve taken care of business in the conference as they can’t really be expected to compete with the two teams they lost to (NMSTU and UTST). As for Idaho, they’ve been surprising to say the least in the conference, but what’s upcoming is going to haunt them. Their next five are just situationally bad spots. January has not been kind to travel. Go to Hawaii, come back with a day of prep, travel to San Jose State, come home for a game, then get back on the road to Cal State Bakersfield where you have to play with one of the most unorthodox styles in the country and play them into OT at that, then have a single day of prep for a conference opponent on the road to end the road trip. Are they playing good basketball? Yes. Are they getting tired? They flat out collapsed at Bakersfield Saturday in the 2H, yet still came away with a win. Tonight doesn’t set up well for them at all against a decent defense. I’m going to take a shot on Niagara. Neither of these teams are good or can be trusted under normal circumstances, but I like my chances in this one based on my offseason evaluation. Coming in, clearly the catalyst for Niagara was going to be Anthony Nelson. He runs the offense, he can shoot, he can get to the lane, and he is probably one of the better passers in the conference from this position. Aside from him, they didn’t return too much and almost every spot was up for competition. I bring this up b/c there are some unknown injuries out there. Antoine Mason was a guy I didn’t even include in my offseason notes. He hasn’t played in three straight games, and while his 16 PPG could be missed, I don’t really look at it that way. The bigger loss is Edwards in the paint, but even without him, I expected Skylar Jones to compete for that position. He isn’t as great as Edwards on the defensive, but he adds another dimension to this offense by bringing out the bigs and forcing you to guard someone who can shoot from the outside, and that is the key here. For years, this Niagara team depended on that as many teams in this conference do. Get some big men who can shoot, and since this conference is predominantly based on guard play, those guards can do what they do best and get to the hoop with an open lane. Now, do these injuries hurt Niagara as a whole? Yes, depth is an issue. But these two injuries aren’t as big as what they appear to be on paper. This game is capped without knowledge of those two and if they’re suiting up or not. Obviously, if either one plays, then it’s an added bonus. Aside from that, with the addition of a few freshman and transfers (Moore kid from UNC Wilmington coming over is an added bonus), the team is extremely young. They start two PG’s, a couple undersized people in the paint that can shoot, and a center who is in the game to simply rebound and defend. As for Manhattan, I’ve commented before on how I will not play this team without Sommerfeldt...
 
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Posted: #1195
I would say that more than half of my plays involve Big XII teams as I focus more on that conference than anything.  One play that I thought was off this past weekend (which I turned out to be right on) was KSU -12.  I see another one that could potentially fall into that category today is KU -4 at Baylor.  I realize Baylor has a lot of talent and that KU has been struggling, but this is a very poorly coached BU team in my opinion.  Anytime they have played someone decent, they have lost and this is by far the best team they have played to date.  Do you have any thoughts on this one?
 
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Posted: #1196

...They haven’t won a game since November, and haven’t really played all that tough of a schedule, and he’s the main reason why. This team is in all out rebuild mode for next year. With the lack of wins, they’ve taken and put a freshman PG in the role of running the offense (Alvarado) ahead of a Senior.  He’s good with the basketball and getting to the bucket in the lane, but he can’t shoot, unlike the other PG on the roster (Walsh). They brought in transfer Jemison from Alabama, but he’s done nothing since being eligible at the semester. He can rebound, but his offense is a liability with him on the court. Along with the 240LB Jemison, they also feature a 230LB forward in Gabriel, who again, is in there for defense and rebounding. His offense has never been present. The only other player worth mentioning is Beamon, who has been a nice surprise for this team both on the offensive end as well as the defensive end. The problem is, he hasn’t touched the ball as much as he should be with the return of Jemison and the amount of minutes he’s playing. With the breakdown of each team, the one glaring key to the game is obviously going to depend on how well Niagara shoots it from the outside, and if they’re able to get these bigs for Manhattan out of the paint. Hit some outside shots, continue to get Jemison and Gabriel out of the paint, and let your two PG’s do the work. Manhattan will have a nice advantage on the offensive end in the paint in terms of size, but the more Gabriel and Jemison touch the ball on that side of the court, the more I like my chances with Niagara. These teams aren’t world-beaters, they are far from it. Just taking a chance on value as I see it and trusting the more experienced guards. I have no interest in St. Peter’s considering they are coming off a game in which they scored 70 for the first time this season. Siena has revenge from a one point loss earlier in the season where they played without Jackson and only shot 36%. I value Fairfield a bit more than Rider, but I pointed out Fairfield’s shooting woes on the road last Friday. They shot 50% and still lost. Appy State still disappointing, but still undervalued. Not sure how they rebound here. I’m surprised the Chattanooga total isn’t a bit higher, but it’s probably b/c of their offense. Both teams like to run, neither team’s defense is all that great, and COC’s style benefits Nooga to score some points. If Chattanooga was to play a half court game, then no, I wouldn’t really expect this offense to score. But in an up and down game, they should have added opportunities to do so. As for Charleston, they should be able to name their # here. Chattanooga really doesn’t match-up well at all defensively at any position. I’d love to add more, but I’ve said quite a bit about Chattanooga and their “juco” style of play. Benefits all around in this one. Nooga is also coming off two of the slowest ballgames and teams they’ll play all year (Citadel/Samford), they’ll be happy to get back to the up and down style. No interest in UNC Greensboro games and/or Citadel games for the year. No interest in UAB. Think they’re definitely better than East Carolina but coming off 3OT game and poor showing on the first of a two game roady Saturday. This is the 2nd.

Bets
Niagara +3 (1 Unit)
Kansas State +5.5 (1 Unit)
Coll of Charleston/Chattanooga Over 150 (1 Unit)
Kansas/Baylor Over 140 (1 Unit)

DNP: Fresno State -4

GL
 
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Posted: #1197

 
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Posted: #1198
Sorry nropp.  I posted my question prior to seeing your write-up.
 
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Posted: #1199
Thanks nropp.  Good luck today.
 
 
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 GL to everybody and thanks nropp!
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