-easily beat a higher ranked team than Lafayette and scored 97 pts ....STJ would be in my TOP 20 all-time best HOME COURT bets list which I will compile later this season...it will have the teams I consistently bet with the right line + opponent and win at a high rate
-big size and rebounding advantages here as well as in the style of play the homecourt likes to use .....this could get ugly
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #2 Saturday - St. Johns -24.5 x 1U
-easily beat a higher ranked team than Lafayette and scored 97 pts ....STJ would be in my TOP 20 all-time best HOME COURT bets list which I will compile later this season...it will have the teams I consistently bet with the right line + opponent and win at a high rate
-big size and rebounding advantages here as well as in the style of play the homecourt likes to use .....this could get ugly
Watching a line..... Saint Louis -23.5 ranked #31 pre vs #315 Evansville....I see something similar in Providence tonight, to come firing out on all cylinders after a slow start. You can bet ST.L to do the same sort of thing as players tend to motivate in the early season if their result didn't reflect their talent.....you can bet their coach got them ready this week to perform in front of a Saturday night crowd
Providence line is -14.5 vs Northeastern #195 ....Cooley is a great coach so I expect a better start this week
Might still make a move on this play
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Watching a line..... Saint Louis -23.5 ranked #31 pre vs #315 Evansville....I see something similar in Providence tonight, to come firing out on all cylinders after a slow start. You can bet ST.L to do the same sort of thing as players tend to motivate in the early season if their result didn't reflect their talent.....you can bet their coach got them ready this week to perform in front of a Saturday night crowd
Providence line is -14.5 vs Northeastern #195 ....Cooley is a great coach so I expect a better start this week
-this is a tough building to come into from another time zone
-UNT has a strong defense but I expect St. Mary's to find a way from either inside play or hitting their outside shots from their spots on the homecourt
-UNT playing their first tough game of the season, STM has played two good teams already
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Sunday: St. Mary's -8.5 x 2U
-this is a tough building to come into from another time zone
-UNT has a strong defense but I expect St. Mary's to find a way from either inside play or hitting their outside shots from their spots on the homecourt
-UNT playing their first tough game of the season, STM has played two good teams already
Sunday: St. Mary's -8.5 x 2U -this is a tough building to come into from another time zone -UNT has a strong defense but I expect St. Mary's to find a way from either inside play or hitting their outside shots from their spots on the homecourt -UNT playing their first tough game of the season, STM has played two good teams already
Pretty good start if you took this game.....I worry about the 2nd half when I see a score like this. UNT is supposed to have a strong defense
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Sunday: St. Mary's -8.5 x 2U -this is a tough building to come into from another time zone -UNT has a strong defense but I expect St. Mary's to find a way from either inside play or hitting their outside shots from their spots on the homecourt -UNT playing their first tough game of the season, STM has played two good teams already
Pretty good start if you took this game.....I worry about the 2nd half when I see a score like this. UNT is supposed to have a strong defense
I have uncovered 3 ATS trends after charting every game of #1 - #100 so far based on their results and spread. I am aiming to use this occasionally this week and going forward, assuming the trends continue in the direction they are going
Two trends are 11 - 5 ATS in my charts.....
Another is 18 - 6 ATS
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
RECORD after Week/Overall:
Sides = 6 - 4 (Bigger bets 3 - 0)
Totals = 0 - 1
Teaser = 0 - 1
In - game = 1 - 0
-----------------------------------------
Units = +5 Units ($250)
I have uncovered 3 ATS trends after charting every game of #1 - #100 so far based on their results and spread. I am aiming to use this occasionally this week and going forward, assuming the trends continue in the direction they are going
DOG > NC Central COULD cause some issues for Liberty....
DOG > FAU is ranked 109th ....why is Florida getting so much respect when they have been inconsistent?
??? what to do with FSU ....loses two games outright to teams way below them...I think they are falsely ranked in the TOP 50 and should be above TOP 100
Portland - Kent St will be a tight ballgame likely ....
PLAY #1 - Drake -10.5 x1U vs #185 Wofford
-they are explosive at home....Wofford not as strong as the last few years but decent team
PLAY #2 - Houston -19.5 x1U ....this team is unstoppable until they prove otherwise and at home for sure!!....they will beat TOP 50 teams by 10 pts in their building and not worried about a team ranked around 200th
Might have one more later
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Monday thoughts on games...
DOG > NC Central COULD cause some issues for Liberty....
DOG > FAU is ranked 109th ....why is Florida getting so much respect when they have been inconsistent?
??? what to do with FSU ....loses two games outright to teams way below them...I think they are falsely ranked in the TOP 50 and should be above TOP 100
Portland - Kent St will be a tight ballgame likely ....
PLAY #1 - Drake -10.5 x1U vs #185 Wofford
-they are explosive at home....Wofford not as strong as the last few years but decent team
PLAY #2 - Houston -19.5 x1U ....this team is unstoppable until they prove otherwise and at home for sure!!....they will beat TOP 50 teams by 10 pts in their building and not worried about a team ranked around 200th
#17 Ttech h vs Lou Tech #148 pre .... line is good now? -13.5 is a reasonable line to go after especially with Ttechs lockdown defense...LouTech has not played a high level team
#88 Georgia vs #276 pre.... there might be something here, but caution with Georgia not covering -13.5 in first game at home vs #287 ...they won by 13 and just missed
GEORGIA usually is a strong homecourt over the years and can beat up higher ranked foes there
Utah #95 vs #333 Idaho St >> TOO HIGH because they held BYU on their home court to only a 4 pt win!
PLAY #3 - Idaho St +22.5 x HALF U
Baylor -27.5 (too high?) vs #237 Northern Colorado ....a number this high at home in the TOP 50 is only covering just over 50%
-Baylor could not cover vs #241 pre in their last game
Looks like sharps are hitting Butler at +9.5 open to +5.5 now vs great home court @ Penn ST #76
-PENN ST has pummeled opponents on their homecourt ranked #340 last game and #153 the previous
.........I will be looking to take PENN ST in local parlays at this level
.........might have some thoughts on the 9pm games later
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
More thoughts:
#17 Ttech h vs Lou Tech #148 pre .... line is good now? -13.5 is a reasonable line to go after especially with Ttechs lockdown defense...LouTech has not played a high level team
#88 Georgia vs #276 pre.... there might be something here, but caution with Georgia not covering -13.5 in first game at home vs #287 ...they won by 13 and just missed
GEORGIA usually is a strong homecourt over the years and can beat up higher ranked foes there
Utah #95 vs #333 Idaho St >> TOO HIGH because they held BYU on their home court to only a 4 pt win!
PLAY #3 - Idaho St +22.5 x HALF U
Baylor -27.5 (too high?) vs #237 Northern Colorado ....a number this high at home in the TOP 50 is only covering just over 50%
-Baylor could not cover vs #241 pre in their last game
Looks like sharps are hitting Butler at +9.5 open to +5.5 now vs great home court @ Penn ST #76
-PENN ST has pummeled opponents on their homecourt ranked #340 last game and #153 the previous
.........I will be looking to take PENN ST in local parlays at this level
.........might have some thoughts on the 9pm games later
#2 - Houston -19.5 x1U ....this team is unstoppable until they prove otherwise and at home for sure!!....they will beat TOP 50 teams by 10 pts in their building and not worried about a team ranked around 200th Might have one more later
i've had houston match up against oregon circled since the beginning of the season. altman has a history of starting out slow with newer teams and then they shoot out of a cannon usually once conference play starts. uc irvine was a great example. give me houston anything in the 3-5 range and i'm on it like flies on shit
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
1
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
#2 - Houston -19.5 x1U ....this team is unstoppable until they prove otherwise and at home for sure!!....they will beat TOP 50 teams by 10 pts in their building and not worried about a team ranked around 200th Might have one more later
i've had houston match up against oregon circled since the beginning of the season. altman has a history of starting out slow with newer teams and then they shoot out of a cannon usually once conference play starts. uc irvine was a great example. give me houston anything in the 3-5 range and i'm on it like flies on shit
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst: #2 - Houston -19.5 x1U ....this team is unstoppable until they prove otherwise and at home for sure!!....they will beat TOP 50 teams by 10 pts in their building and not worried about a team ranked around 200th Might have one more later i've had houston match up against oregon circled since the beginning of the season. altman has a history of starting out slow with newer teams and then they shoot out of a cannon usually once conference play starts. uc irvine was a great example. give me houston anything in the 3-5 range and i'm on it like flies on shit
Visiting teams favored by < 5 pts in the TOP 50 are 3 -0 according to my tracking spreadsheet....I am only tracking the Top 100 pre-season SI until about game 8-10 and then might switch to Kenpom and ESPN BPI
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid:
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst: #2 - Houston -19.5 x1U ....this team is unstoppable until they prove otherwise and at home for sure!!....they will beat TOP 50 teams by 10 pts in their building and not worried about a team ranked around 200th Might have one more later i've had houston match up against oregon circled since the beginning of the season. altman has a history of starting out slow with newer teams and then they shoot out of a cannon usually once conference play starts. uc irvine was a great example. give me houston anything in the 3-5 range and i'm on it like flies on shit
Visiting teams favored by < 5 pts in the TOP 50 are 3 -0 according to my tracking spreadsheet....I am only tracking the Top 100 pre-season SI until about game 8-10 and then might switch to Kenpom and ESPN BPI
- scratching my head on this one with total going down ....MOCs can score /Ole Miss shooting the ball extremely well and at home especially so they can put up 80 no issue if Charleston put up 85 on them
-Chatanooga should be good for 60 pts especially with a weak 3 pt defense for Ole Miss
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #2 - Mocs @ Ole Miss OVER 138 x HALF U
- scratching my head on this one with total going down ....MOCs can score /Ole Miss shooting the ball extremely well and at home especially so they can put up 80 no issue if Charleston put up 85 on them
-Chatanooga should be good for 60 pts especially with a weak 3 pt defense for Ole Miss
-Fairfield with 3rd roadie and it will be getting old and cumbersome being down in a game and not shooting the ball well from 3 pt....if they start hot in the 1st half with 3pt, then they have a chance vs a week Xavier 3pt defense BUT....they don't allow as many chances (< 20 per game)
#25 team vs #229 ....I like my chances under 20 pt cover when Xavier has scored 22+ wins over 243rd and 299 rank
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #3 - Xavier -18.5 x HALF U
-Fairfield with 3rd roadie and it will be getting old and cumbersome being down in a game and not shooting the ball well from 3 pt....if they start hot in the 1st half with 3pt, then they have a chance vs a week Xavier 3pt defense BUT....they don't allow as many chances (< 20 per game)
#25 team vs #229 ....I like my chances under 20 pt cover when Xavier has scored 22+ wins over 243rd and 299 rank
TEASER 5 PT x 1U: NW +6 (like them ML also on some parlays) with South Dakota St -1.5 (1st homie and better rank than opponent by 50 places) with Kentucky -1.5 (may be the best team along with Houston after watching some early games >> so much good returning firepower/transfers and rookies!)
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
TEASER 5 PT x 1U: NW +6 (like them ML also on some parlays) with South Dakota St -1.5 (1st homie and better rank than opponent by 50 places) with Kentucky -1.5 (may be the best team along with Houston after watching some early games >> so much good returning firepower/transfers and rookies!)
Play #2 Arkansas -15.5 x 3U vs a tired S.Dakota St. team who played at home last night and flew to Arkansas to play back to back -now they face an absolute SICK pressure defense and notoriously good homecourt!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Play #2 Arkansas -15.5 x 3U vs a tired S.Dakota St. team who played at home last night and flew to Arkansas to play back to back -now they face an absolute SICK pressure defense and notoriously good homecourt!
WOW WOW WOW.....scary ending as I wouldn't have covered my original -15.5 and just squeaked it out with the later placing of my bet at -14.5
Razorbacks win by 15 +$150 phew!
Houston looking to cover up by 35 as well with a minute to go !
2 - 0 +$200 night (4 Unit gain) ....nights like last night hurt, but the Vegas spread gods gave back a couple. I have some powerful trends I have analysed now after checking ATS every game the Top 100 has played and vs other rankings .....some nice gems I have uncovered, and when to take the dog the other way
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Got -14.5 when I went to lay Arkansas
WOW WOW WOW.....scary ending as I wouldn't have covered my original -15.5 and just squeaked it out with the later placing of my bet at -14.5
Razorbacks win by 15 +$150 phew!
Houston looking to cover up by 35 as well with a minute to go !
2 - 0 +$200 night (4 Unit gain) ....nights like last night hurt, but the Vegas spread gods gave back a couple. I have some powerful trends I have analysed now after checking ATS every game the Top 100 has played and vs other rankings .....some nice gems I have uncovered, and when to take the dog the other way
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+$150 phew!
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