Reveal of my Top 100 (Adjusted after first 5 - 6 games)
- it incorporates Sports Illustrated ranking pre-season + Espn BPI
BPI = Power rankings + SOS + Stats Analytics (ranking adjusted each game)
-my ranking also considers placement relating to ATS record over 5 games/ then 10 games...and so on to reflect what the bettor needs to know, not how many actual WINS they achieve
-will also provide what are the best angles using Top 10 / Top 50 and ranks 51 - 100 as separations
-so far, Sports Illustrated has provided me a great head start to compare, my own charting of all games results on the TOP 100 Pre-season has helped me to develop proper trends to bet on and adhere to....with success ( I am only losing money when I think I am Einstein using exotics or Totals)
Here is my TOP 30 and their weighted BPI / Pre-season rank in 1st column and 1st 5 games ATS/Next 5 ATS :
Ranking (adjusted) 1st Five ATS next 5 ATS
#1 Texas 5 - 0* 0 - 0
#2 Houston 5- 0** 1 - 1
#3 Gonzaga 2 - 3 0 - 2 (-1)
#4 Baylor 3 - 2* 0 - 1
#5 Kentucky 3 - 2 (-1) 0 - 0
#6 Tennessee 3 - 2**(-1) 1 - 1
#7 Arkansas 3 - 2 1 - 1
#8 UCLA 2 - 3** 1 - 1*
#9 Creighton 3 - 1 2 - 0
#10 Duke 3 - 2** 1 - 2 (-1)
Pre-season ranking > https://www.si.com/college/2022/11/02/ranking-every-team-in-college-basketball-unc-gonzaga
Updated BPI > https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/overview/page/1
Ranking (adjusted) 1st Five ATS next 5 ATS
#11 Indiana 4 - 1* 1 - 0*
#12 Arizona 2 - 2** 0 - 1
#13 Alabama 4 - 1** 1 - 1 (-1)
#14 UNC 1 - 4 0 - 2 (-1)
#15 Auburn 3 - 2 0 - 2
#16 San D St. 4 - 1* 1 - 1*
#17 Kansas 1 - 4* 1 - 1*
#18 UCONN 4 - 1** 3 - 0**
#19 Virginia 3 - 2*** 0 - 0
#20 Texas Tech 2 - 3 0 - 1
( ) - INDICATES if team lost outright as ATS favorite
* - INDICATES if the team beat the ATS spread by more than 10 pts posted = strong win
Ranking (adjusted) 1st Five ATS next 5 ATS
#21 Illinois 3 - 2 1 - 0
#22 Purdue 3 - 2** 1 - 0*
#23 Iowa 4 - 1** 0 - 1 (-1)
#24 Ohio St 1 - 4* 2 - 0*
#25 Xavier 2 - 3* 1 - 1
#26 Iowa St. 4 - 1*** 0 - 1
#27 St Mary's 3 - 2* 1 - 1 (-1)
#28 WVU 2 - 1 2 - 0*
#29 LSU 2 - 3 1 - 1
#30 Memphis 2 - 3 2 - 0
Will reveal 20 more ranks for the TOP 50 completed....plus some great trends with this group of teams so far sometime tomorrow.....
Appreciate your message....enjoy
My plays are $25 or $50 and then sometimes double *2U
Bet carefully and realize, I almost always bet with trends and no gut bets unless I know the teams and see something in my tracking charts that makes me play....so will likely let people know if trend or gut bet
Fade play here.....GEORGIA has lost covers 3 times at home ATS with lines of -12.5 , -13.5 and -7.5 to all 3 teams ranked between #275 and #299 in pre-season rankings
Today they face the #337 team and the line is -19.5 right now??
-further....teams ranked 80 -100th pre-season are 12 - 16 ATS with a line of -10 to -19.5 AND ....a disturbing 6 - 10 ATS vs teams with a rank of #300 - 368th < absolute worst....and this was 2 - 10 ATS until about 1 week ago
Use the trend to fade GEORGIA and take HAMPTON +19.5 are a respectable 96th best 3 pt team and 157th as offensive rebounding which is a deadly scoring combo to stay close in games
-pure trend play for only x HALF U (because Georgia is 33rd defending the 3pt but terrible defensive rebounders)
I am not a large wager player either... I have done this on and off for 39 years... and am not lucky in it for most part... but I have tended to do best in college hoops... my line on this when I looked was 17.5... I did not play.. I will continue to look in and will add some if I feel it can help... again. Appreciate your time and effort.
Ranking (adjusted) 1st Five ATS next 5 ATS
#31 Okie St 1 - 4* (-2) 2 - 0*
#32 Oklahoma 2 - 3 (-1) 2 - 0*
#33 Maryland 5 - 0** 0 - 1
#34 Florida 2 - 3* 0 - 2
#35 TCU 1 - 3* (-1) 1 - 0*
#36 Miami 2 - 3 1 - 1
#37 Mississippi St 5 - 0*** 0 - 2
#38 UAB 2 - 3 (-1) 1 - 0
#39 Mich St. 3 - 2** 1 - 0*
#40 St. Louis 3 - 2 1 - 0
#41 Villanova 2 - 3 (-1) 0 - 2
#42 Wisconsin 4 - 1 1 - 0
#43 Tex AM 3 - 2 (-2) 1 - 0
#44 Dayton 1 - 3 0 - 2 (-2)
#45 Rutgers 2 - 3** (-2) 1 - 0*
#46 St Johns 3 - 2* 1 - 1
#47 Oregon 2 - 3** (-1) 2 - 0*
#48 Ole Miss. 4 - 1* 1 - 1
#49 NC State 3 - 2*** 2 - 0**
#50 Arizona St. 3 - 2** (-1) 1 - 0
KEY Trends with using the Top 50 teams to follow..
The Very Best + Worst Trends of the Top 50 Rated teams posted above in this thread.....
-use the SI url I posted above, to refer to other ranked teams out of the Top 50 (there are some comparisons)
BEST:
- home teams that are favorite by -10 to -19.5 = 25 - 11 ATS** Vegas is noticeably not giving out these lines out now ...they have moved the goalposts up 4 -8 pts in some cases ....but I caution fading the lines....it actually might be better to TEASE the lines down 5 or 7pts if you can
TOP 10 teams are >> 8 - 3 ATS with that line range
> 7 - 3 ATS when line is -30 or higher
> 6 - 1 ATS when playing a team ranked 150th pre -season - 199th
-Be patient looking for these and read injury report
Top 11 - 25 Teams >> 11 - 3 ATS with a line between -10 and -19.5
>> also 7 - 3 ATS vs teams ranked pre-season 250 - 299th
Top 26 - 50th teams don't perform well in many lines -10 or higher..... except > teams ranked 150 - 199 = 7 - 2 ATS
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FADE:
> teams ranked 26th - 50th and playing teams with a line higher than -10 vs teams ranked 300th or worse
> fade road favorites in the Top 50 if their line is higher than -5 = 25 - 31 ATS only with 14 outright losses as a favorite!
> TOP 50 teams if line is -20 to -25 = 16 - 24 ATS so far
Plays on Friday:
I have BRYANT close to being in my Top 100 and so I will bet them like they are.....using a trend
-teams that are ranked 50 -125th pre-season are 24 - 12 - 1 ATS @ home with a spread of -5 to -9.5
BRYANT -9.5 x 2U...
-Brown has trouble scoring at times and don't defend 2 or 3 pt buckets very well
-Bryant is a great outside shooting team who can drive to score if needed ....they beat Syracuse's 2 -3 zone from their outside shooting ability and did so on the road
-they have not played at home much yet....so a Friday night game will have the players and fans rockin'
Parlay Half U hunch play that figures with style of team mismatch here
> Georgia (h) vs Florida AM UNDER 130.5 with Georgia -24.5 > pays +190
-FAM does not shoot well, or rebound to score more than 45-50 on this Georgia rebounding and defensive machine....especially when Hampton with some good shooters and offensive rebounders could not score close to 60
-Georgia might use some subs in the second half to give them a thrill playing before Conference play, with a Friday night crowd which is a big deal (Friday's were my fave night to play as a rookie!) ....keep bench motivated and build team chemistry
-will Georgia score over 80 at home....its possible, but not likely and if they do, I think they will dominate on defense enough and the FAM shooters are terrible enough to hit a number score under 50 ....they have done it 2 out of 6 games already and I checked the defense they have played versus and they are not as good as Georgia's stats
One Teaser:
-think the Auburn game is an interesting line....but the TOTAL is close to being too high with their defense and Colgate has mostly played loose teams which now, they likely will be really off with a hand in their face all the time and half court presses....
-KENT ST is one of my favorite teams now....ballzy, timely, fearless and gritty players who can shoot and score late in the clock or hit an early 3 pter...... playing a good team but they are way better than Akron who only won by 1 pt over their opponent
-NCST has a great homecourt and the fans are loud and boisterous ....Pitt just defeated a tough homecourt in their first roadie but will likely find that they cannot hang with NCST scoring runs...hard to duplicate back to back wins on the road vs two good teams
5 PT TEASER x Half U > Auburn Under 147.5 with NCST -3 with Kent St -1.5
Updated overall stats:
Sides = 20 - 12 (Bigger bets 7 - 0)
Totals = 1 - 5 (Bigger bets 0 - 1)
Teaser = 9 - 14
In - game = 1 - 0
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Total Profit/Loss Units = +8.1 Units ($510) ...exotics killed my stack a little this week....would be up almost 13 U if not for screwing around a little and just sticking to trends and mis-lines by Vegas
Note: new plays for Friday just posted above this one
Things to consider with Bryant pick....
-Bryant has won by over 10 pts in 4 of 7 games
-Brown has had only 1 line that was double digits, versus a former TOP 100 pre-season team that has had a rough 2 - 7 start to the year BUT, was still able to beat BROWN by 15 pts
-Brown has played 2 other teams in or close to TOP 100 when at home and LOST BOTH by over 10 despite being home team
Got my ass kicked yesterday.....what a brick by Bryant who has made me $$ before
Trend plays today:
ND -6.5 X 1U > teams ranked 50 -100 are hitting the spread of -5 to -9.5 for a scorching 24 - 12 - 1 ATS 
....good trend for TULANE vs Fordham pre-season #190 ....teams ranked under 80th like I have Tulane are 7 -3 ATS vs teams in the 150 - 199th ranking zone and with a spread of -10 to -14.5 and with this spread, teams with its ranking zone are hitting the same line for 16 - 6 - 1 ATS
- I don't like the fact they are 1 -5 ATS ,but have played a lot of neutral site games
Tulane -11.5 x HALF U....
eyeing this Virginia game.....will have some more later
Have to take this Virginia line right in the sweetspot for a Top 50 and 10 team:
Virginia x1U -17 right now on BET365
-teams in Top 50 are 25 - 11 ATS with this line between -15 and -19.5
-teams in my Top 10 are 8 - 3 ATS vs any team with this line
-BPI has Florida St at 136 ...I think they are closer to 150 -199th rating and if so, teams in the Top 10 are beating these teams with this line at a rate of 6 - 1 ATS
Also taking...
Troy -2.5 @ SIU x HALF U
-lots of firepower and can play tougher teams well....SIU have not played that tough of a schedule so far
Duke -17.5 x1U for many reasons ...see trends for Virginia play above ....similar
-rested/healthy and ready to start dumping on teams in their home court, especially middling teams like B.C.
-B.C. is not a great shooting team and rebounders....DUKE one of the best rebounding and defenses in the country will take care of business in their end, have some fun on the other....its not a coach K gamer type of offense but effective !
Colorado St -15.5 x 3U
-N. Colorado do not really rebound and just like jacking up 3 pters and with Col St. a very good defense vs it and playing a very tough schedule, they will take this away and control the rebound on their end constantly
-I think this could be a 30 pt blowout, but if NCO hits their 3pts, I might have to play an in-game play ...I am betting right now they won't !
Final Play - Alabama -19.5 x 2U
-Jackrabbits have had to play 4 games on the road in about 8 days!!!
-they played last night and lost by more than 15 pts
-Alabama is a tough homecourt and no joke this year with so much talent ....proving it vs Top 20 teams
-this could get ugly!
Experiencing a pretty rough day.....any trend that was hot is losing
Let see what happens later. Like one more play
Give me UCIRVINE -8 x 2U vs a weak offense who has to play a Saturday game....UCIRV can play both ends of the court but cannot say the same for Fresno
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