NCAAB picks, Wednesday, November 23, 2011 -- UCLA v. Michigan

Tuesday: 3-1, +2.80 units
YTD: 9-5, +5.85 units

1. Tennessee -19.5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
2. Michigan -6 (-110), 2.2 to win 2

I definitely did not expect UCLA to be catching 6 points against Michigan... was hoping for a much, much smaller line to be honest (shows 6 at bookmaker right now). Anything 3 and below would have been a huge play for me on Michigan. At 6, I still like Michigan but not nearly as much as I would have at 3 or lower.

This is not the first time that we have seen the Howland v. Beilein matchup. Let's take a look at the historical results for UCLA  teams led by Howland against John Beilein and his teams that run that 1-3-1 zone that I love:

2005-2006 -- West Virginia comes into Pauley Pavilion and wins by 4, final score 60-56. This was the Kevin Pittsnogle and Gansey led WVU team playing Farmar, Collison, Afflalo, Mbah a Moute, and Ryan Hollins... 5 NBA players and WVU still pulls it out. UCLA shoots 5-24 from deep.

2006-2007 -- UCLA heads to Morgantown and WVU wins by 5, final score 70-65. UCLA shoots 6-23 from deep, Westbrook goes 1-11 in his first time as a PG in college.

2007-2008 -- UCLA goes to Michigan in Beilein's first year and spanks the Wolverines by 15, final score 69-54. UCLA was loaded this year with Kevin Love, Mbah a Moute, Westbrook, Collison... loads of NBA talent.

2008-2009 -- UCLA plays Michigan on a neutral site and loses by 3, final score 55-52. UCLA shoots 5-16 from three point land. This was the start of UCLA's decline in terms of seasons, last year for Collison and Holiday was a huge disappointment.

What's the ultimate end result? Tie 2-2, but Howland's two wins were when his teams were absolutely loaded with NBA talent. Look at their roster now, tell me who is an NBA talent. Josh Smith if he loses 80 pounds and gets into shape? Reeves Nelson? The Wear twins?

My heart wants UCLA to win here, but my gut says that they just flat out do not have the ballhandling at the guard spot and more importantly, the decision making to break down a 2-3 and 1-3-1 zone. Howland couldn't prepare his team to beat the 1-3-1 when he had a number of days to do it. Now I'm supposed to believe that UCLA's guards are gonna make good decisions all of a sudden despite 8 halves of evidence to the contrary and NOT get trapped in the corner with the ball?

Michigan should cover this number.... not as 100% confident as I was yesterday with Kansas, but tweaking UCLA's offense to defeat a zone is never something that Howland has been strong at.... then you add that fact into the equation that this team doesn't really seem to have anyone who can consistently score? This could get ugly for UCLA, especially if the team chemistry continues to suffer (and it does -- hear the announcers talking about when Nelson checked out of the game in the 1H, not one Bruin acknowledged him or gave him a hi-five or anything? HE IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE UCLA TEAM LEADER!)

I think this game has the potential to the "rock bottom" for UCLA. If they get  embarrassed by Michigan and their zone -- a wholly realistic possibility -- then this could implode very quickly.  Very quickly.

Think about it this way -- Michigan goes from having to stop Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, Dawkins, all those talented Duke players and especially their backcourt... and then the next game they get is against UCLA's backcourt? It's gonna be like a scrimmage for Michigan players in terms of quality of competition from Duke to UCLA.

good day ahead for you...looks goodiegL

You should be buying UCLA while it's stock is low.Michigan's stock is high and has no value.

 

GL

Question from my last thread from berghawk:

"As a UCLA fan what are your thoughts on the makeup of this team.  From an outsiders perspective it seems like you probably have a lot of different factions and zero chemistry.  The Wear twins, Josh Smith and Reeves Nelson just dont seem like players that can coexist on a successful team.  Its amazing how easily Nelson and Smith would give up last night.  One second they are running around like they wanted to compete for a national title and the next second Nelson is doing his best Dennis Rodman impressions.  And how the Wear twins were burger boys at UNC is a joke.

What do you think it will take for Howland to right the ship this year?  If I was a UCLA fan, I think I would want Smith and Nelson off the team.  Its seems like their bad attitudes affect the rest of the squad and they dont seem like guys that are going to buy into Howland and his staff at this point in their careers.

BOL the rest of the way.  Hope UCLA can get things on track."

I think it will take some serious actions by Howland to get this team on track. I can't believe I'm saying this, but if Nelson is a problem, I wish that Howland would give him the boot and send him home. At this point, I just want guys wearing the uniform that (a) want to be there and (b) will play hard on both ends of the floor, especially the defensive end. We don't have that right now.

It was a freaking embarrassment last night to watch how many times UCLA players did not run down the floor on transition to play defense. As a basketball purist, it made me shake my head. As a UCLA fan, it left me disgusted. I wish Howland would play the five guys that will at least play hard. I don't know if we have five of those guys this year.

Would love to see Powell, Parker, and Lane all get more PT. The Wear twins are an abomination and if Howland continues to give them both substantial minutes of PT he's gonna have a fan mutiny on his hands the likes of which he has never seen before... its gonna be like Dragovic part 2, but twice as worse. Some of the shots the Wears took yesterday were just sickening. I have no idea why Howland is playing them. OK, they can hit outside jumpers... they are big men for god sakes! No post moves! No rebounding! No court awareness!

Makes me sick.

I bought UCLA at its lowest stock against Chaminade.... hard to be lower than coming off of losses to LMU and MTSU.

Michigan is a good team, this is straight basketball X's and O's play for me here, stock prices aside.

bol today Kap.  Great night yesterday 

I would have to be catching at least 3 possessions with UCLA here to want to have any desire to play them. They should lose this game by DD in this spot 70% of the time.

That's a perception by evidence that will prove costly.

BOL Kap.  I feel ya on what your saying about your team.  Do you think the fact that the Wear Twins were added and playing as much as they do, has caused Nelson and some of the other guys to seperate from the 'team'?  There is a long way to go, so a lot can still happen. 

Is this English? Am I not reading this correctly to understand? What are you trying to say here, you disagree with my perception as to how bad UCLA is? How good Michigan is? That UCLA loses by double digits here around 70% of the time in this spot?

Nah. Truth is stranger than fiction. UCLA a bad bball team? No way.......


You are correct Kap

I certainly think it didn't help team chemistry... here are two "California kids" who spurned UCLA years ago when they were being recruited and went to UNC instead, realized they'd never see the floor, comes back to the school they rejected... and all of a sudden start jacking up shots without regard and without punishment by Howland? If I am Reeves or anyone else on that team that makes me disgusted.

On talent, Tennessee wins by 35. However, I hate teams playing their last game in Maui against Chaminade after having played a killer game the day before. The Vols played an all out war yesterday in double OT and lost. You couldn't ask for a flatter spot however Chaminade is horrendous. I wouldn't be shocked if this was 10 point game or 35 point blowout but it's a stay away for me.

I think Tennessee takes out their frustrations on the doormat here, GH although I sure can see your angle as well. Tennessee had to play two pretty solid teams and then now they get a D-2 squad. I think they'll be out for blood after their first two losses.

Agree w/ Gamehunter. Last game for Chaminade and getting Tenn after the tough dbl OT loss to their rival.

But 100% agree w/ your analysis of the game, You are on top of it.

Mich "as a bettor not a fan"

Who's the better team Michigan or Kansas?  Why is the line the same?  It's not about UCLA, it's about fading Michigan laying a ridiculous number.

Good luck Kap!  If you get up 30+ units, I think I need to talk to your wife about your reinstatement for March Madness

I think Michigan and Kansas are both pretty even, IMO, maybe Kansas is a hair better.

The line isn't the same. Kansas laying 8.5 is a lot different than Michigan laying 6.

Why is this a ridiculous number for Michigan to lay? It's a two possession number against a crappy offensive team that historically has had trouble with zones for YEARS.

Right now I'll take Michigan. The linesmakers are still banking on the UCLA name. Kansas should have been -12 and Michigan should be -9.5

It's gonna be tough for me to be able to get the OK for March Madness this year cause the wife's due date is March 10... I'm just hoping once the baby is out maybe she will come around and want a vacation as well?

Probably dead wrong but a man can dream, can't he?

Kansas game closed at 7.5.

Michigan is at 7 and will get to 7.5 if not 8.

Same.

UCLA got back in that game late until the last few minutes where it got away from them.  UCLA will be in Michigan's shirt for 40 minutes tonight.  Anyhow GL.

 

Yeah I think you are right TRAIN -- people still haven't come around to the fact that this UCLA team is really, really bad this year. Kansas should have been 12 and a true line on the Michigan game (where we get 50-50 split on the result) should be Michigan -9 to -10.

One great thing from this though? The rest of the country will be so tired of betting on UCLA and losing that we will start seeing inflated lines for them. UCLA will have value in a few spots, probably their next 2 games after this tourney.

Kansas may have closed at 7.5 but was that line a true indication of what the "true" line should have been for Kansas? No, not at all... that line was an abomination and was way off. From covers' page, looks like most places closed on that game at 8, some at 7.5.