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NCAAB THURS

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Posted: #101

I'm with you on the IU play.  You probably read this but this is a good article covering Michigan from their local guy who follows the team.  https://www.michigandaily.com/content/whats-ailing-wolverines

All in all, us Indiana folks should know that IU matches up well with Michigan and have played them tough the past 2 seasons since Crean arrived even w/ mediocre talent.  Sims and Harris will have mismatch opportunities but Michigan overall has played so poorly on offense, I think they'll struggled against an improving IU defense. 

I also think its smart to lay off Auburn @ Tennesee.  This Auburn team is undisciplined w/ poor shot selection and almost zero inside presence.  Tenn feasts off long rebounds that get them into transition.  The let down factor though maybe trumps all but from a ball perspective, I can't back Auburn.

 
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Posted: #102
nothing is 100% but when the public is all over an underdog that is usually not a good sign like UNC last night and Gonzaga tonight!
 
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Posted: #103
Bergey, thats true, i agree, i guess im talking from a personal standpoint, whether id admit it or not, there would at least be a tad bit of biased opinion when it would come to bettin on the heels, so thats a big reason of y i wanna lay off them at least for a good while, until they start proving that they will play consistant
 
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Posted: #104
Dont know if you care but weird line movement in Michigan IU game. Now at 14 with 87% on IU
 
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Posted: #105

Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:

nothing is 100% but when the public is all over an underdog that is usually not a good sign like UNC last night and Gonzaga tonight!

ya the publics all over gonzaga tonight, the whole forum got st marys.  go to the rx forum and see who they have to.  do you guys just believe everything a book tells you??

 
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Posted: #106
I only see 66% on IU, but regardless, Michigan has a tough slate ahead after IU.  UConn, Wisconsin, Purdue and MSU are there next 4 games.  There may be some revenge factor against IU, but it's tough for those guys not to look ahead to playing 4 straight ranked teams with Sunday's game a primetime CBS game against UConn.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by UNCforever:

Update things later. I am ready to roll for Thursday. No PAC 10 games for me but if I did I lean to ORE ST.

 

AUB +16 (2.5U)

IU +13.5 (2.5U)

SMC -3 (10U)

I have been reading and following your posts for over a year now...and i can say u have done a great job.....i do good myself but hands down your pick with mine make a good parlay.. thanks for the hardwork....

 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by ifollowtressel:

ya the publics all over gonzaga tonight, the whole forum got st marys.  go to the rx forum and see who they have to.  do you guys just believe everything a book tells you??

 

Well wagerline has 53.39 on the zags while 46.61 is on St Marys.  That is as public and reliable as anything a sportsbook will put out there.  In any case NOTHING will report actual $$$ so its all pretty unimportant. 

 
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Posted: #109

just count how many people have what team, its not hard at all, thats the only true representation you can get.

 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by ifollowtressel:

just count how many people have what team, its not hard at all, thats the only true representation you can get.

 

How is a sample size of less than 45 people a more "true representation" than a sample size of nearly 1000?

 

Covers forum isnt the true "public" as there are people on here that do quite well that influence the picks.  Maybe you are mistaken on who the "public" is.

 
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Posted: #111

Gonzaga wins outright this evening... keep driving this line higher please

best plays are Tenn tech - 2 to tenn martin

Over UT Chatt 124 vs citadel

over 140 La tech vs fresno

Peace

 
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Posted: #112

Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman2:

Young man you need to relax.

You need to relax and stop coming into peoples threads and dumbing your load.Then when someone makes a statement about your load dumbing. You turn everthing around, putting them on the defensive, and act like they are the ones with the attitude.???

You're  manipulative son!! Grow up

 
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Posted: #113

UNC,

I know your card is done, but I was wondering if you looked into Providence or Tenn Chatt.  Personally I feel both will cover.

 
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Posted: #114

unc, I've been looking at your cbb picks for some time now, however I've never been a straight bet guy (which is why I lose more than win), if I agree with one of your picks I put it in a parlay and lose with my pick or vise versa.  Going to try to just go straight....I've been looking to build a house with a box of matches for about 20 years now. 

I know the smart way to bet is to just bet straight.  I always say, what if I hit all 3 or 4 the money looks so good.  I've been a bookies dream for years. 

just wanted to say thanks for the hard work and I'm sure there are a lot like me who don't post often that appreciate what you do.

 

thanks brother!

 
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Posted: #115
Why is the Indiana line so high? I think you are right on with the pick since I think the line should be 9, but the fact it's not dropping scares me.
 
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Posted: #116
is there a way that cover can notify you when someone posts?
 
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Posted: #117

Quote Originally Posted by GoCougs:

Why is the Indiana line so high? I think you are right on with the pick since I think the line should be 9, but the fact it's not dropping scares me.

 

IU has not performed well on the road and going in to Ann Arbor can be stout for this group. But i do know this group will play hard for 40 min. they will not quit until the final whistle. This is a scary bet but I gotta think the motivator Crean is he can muster up something for them to compete. Every game is a must win game for IU and with the next 4 games MICH has on deck I gotta believe they will be looking ahead. IU has to contain the 3 ball or match it and they will be inside this number all game.

 
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Posted: #118
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman2:

Young man you need to relax.
Young man you need to post your plays on your own thread like you did the three days you were a loser. This thread is very important to a lot of people and all you do is clutter it up with negative comments. I've been posting every day now so if you want to continue this discussion, do it on either my thread or yours. That's if you have enough balls to post your plays. Not meaning to be an asshole just don't want to clutter up this thread. Thanks and BOL.                          Now for the reason I came here in the first place,  UNC I would like to thank you for the insight and the winning plays you posted last night. Keep up the good work, there are a lot of people on this forum who admire and respect your wisdom. Looking forward to seeing your final plays for today.
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:

nothing is 100% but when the public is all over an underdog that is usually not a good sign like UNC last night and Gonzaga tonight!





are you trying to tell me people are all over Gonzaga tonight?
 
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Posted: #121
Thanks UNC, I'm going to be on Indiana and St. Mary's as well. Sitting out that Auburn game though.
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by asac929:

unc, I've been looking at your cbb picks for some time now, however I've never been a straight bet guy (which is why I lose more than win), if I agree with one of your picks I put it in a parlay and lose with my pick or vise versa.  Going to try to just go straight....I've been looking to build a house with a box of matches for about 20 years now. 

I know the smart way to bet is to just bet straight.  I always say, what if I hit all 3 or 4 the money looks so good.  I've been a bookies dream for years. 

just wanted to say thanks for the hard work and I'm sure there are a lot like me who don't post often that appreciate what you do.

 

thanks brother!



just do yourself a favor and stay away from parlays, they are sucker bets for real...if you want to play for a jackpot play slots...

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=100643941

 
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Posted: #123
i've been a degen gambler for so long now, its so hard for me to just bet straight.....It's like crack, I know its wrong but it's so hard to stop
 
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Posted: #124
Great job last night, thank you for your insight on both the games you play and games you avoid.  
 
 
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Posted: #125
UNC,
I had a thought that I wanted to share in this forum and get some feedback.  On purely situational plays (eg. let down potential, look ahead, sandwich games etc.) where you are backing a dog, do you think there is more value to look at the 1H line vs. the full game?  I've seen too many times my angle play out perfectly on those types of games for the 1H and then after half time the teams come out and the favorite just takes over.  NW last night fit that bill.  Even in situations, where a team may be favored at home vs. a higher ranked team, I've seen it play out like that (eg. Bama last night). 

I ask this b/c I'm looking hard at Auburn +8 as a 1H bet.  I can't back Auburn full game against any comp in the SEC just yet, but this has such let down potential that the 1H action seems juicy??

Thoughts?
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