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November Hoops

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Posted: #51
hey nropp definitely like how u pick n give your full insight bol this year i no ill be following
 
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Posted: #52
11/15 Results: Think I’d probably still lay the same # in the Peay/Chattanooga game as they put up a combined 121 shots and only scored 137. Take into account AP’s game at STL where they only attempted 91 and scored 126, plus…a buzzer beater away from overtime. Peay’s got a good squad this year, but fear the 9 game roady to open it up.

Sides: 4-1, +2.90
Totals: 0-1, -1.10
DNP: 1-2


11/16 Notes: Virginia Tech is actually playing a team that I have heard of before conference play? They must be sick of the bubble (they actually got Purdue, Oklahoma State, and UNLV scheduled too). Will Ohio State be a better team than Florida come March? Probably. How about tonight? Not sure, but I’m going to bet Florida bases on size, matchups, home court, and slight experience. Buffalo and Youngstown State get my vote for “Most Non Returning Players Combined” Game. On the flip side, Georgia and Colorado get my vote for “Most Returning Players Combined” Game. Dayton leads the country with a  37 game non-conference home winning streak on the line. North Texas gets a big name coming in on the same night they raise an NCAA tournament banner, a Sun Belt Tourney banner, and a Sun Belt Division banner. If ULM can play with Tech on the raod  for 35 minutes and have over 20 lead changes, then I’m going to put my money on North Texas (who is 5x better than ULM) in an environment which will add more motivation, let alone the angle of playing a “big boy”.  North Texas has always played the Big 12 tough, usually have Texas or Oklahoma State on the schedule every year and they’ve been close ballgames. First thing that caught my eye about the game and a Big 12 team coming into North Texas was the UNT/Oklahoma State game to open the 2007 season where the head coach called the game “their national championship” game prior to the tip. Hit the +6 and the ML in a big win for me. They also had a Big 12 school visit in 2003 in Baylor, which resulted in a another win. I had North Texas at -7 here. I’ll gladly take the points with the better team, the motivation, and the home court. I would love to take a chance on San Diego State but not enough value in Zaga. Coach Patrick Chambers of Boston is from Philly. Four of his coaches are from Philly. Eight players on the roster are from the Philly area. They play in Philly. Coach Chambers came from Villanova. If Boston wins, they will play Villanova. George Washington hasn’t played a game yet. They ran a lot more than usual toward the end of last season substituting players at will and getting up and down the court. Boston will slow it down and should be able to control the pace of the game along with having a better feel for the tempo of the game. I like the connections of this game. Only other game that caught my eye was Hampton/Winthrop. Without a doubt these are two of the best defenses in the country as far as a mid-major outlook is concerned. And both teams lost significant offensive ability. But the under has moved four points since the opener which I obviously missed.

Bets
North Texas +2 (2 Units)
Florida -1.5 (1 Unit)
Boston -1 (1 Unit)

DNP: Hampton/Winthrop Under 126.5, Missouri State -7

GL
 
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Posted: #53
outstanding writeups.

hope you do well this season.

No Louisville for you today i see.


 
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Posted: #54
BOL today nropp
 
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Posted: #55
Card is shaped up nicely for this evening, Nropp. I see you just missed a play on Missouri State. I was actually leaning the other way pretty heavy. Another game I was looking deeply at was Wyoming plus the points. Any thoughts on that one? I scrolled through, but didn't see you mention that game.
 
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Posted: #56
gl today nropp
 
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Posted: #57
GL Nropp.  Leaning Fl as well, missed 1.5.  You got me looking into N TX - that line jumped out at me,
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by JoeyPublic:

outstanding writeups.

hope you do well this season.

No Louisville for you today i see.



No Louisville for me. If I had to pick one game that stuck out to me as being lined "perfect", that game is probably it. Louisville a few tough breaks with recruits, but should still be pretty decent. Big East vs Horizon. How much will Butler miss Gordon Hayward? Quite a few unknowns. Maybe at a line generated at more than one possession I could take a stance on either squad, but that -1 is probably where it should be at this point in the season.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by WiseGuys-R-Us:

Card is shaped up nicely for this evening, Nropp. I see you just missed a play on Missouri State. I was actually leaning the other way pretty heavy. Another game I was looking deeply at was Wyoming plus the points. Any thoughts on that one? I scrolled through, but didn't see you mention that game.

Missouri State, as far as offensive talent in the Valley, should have the what I would consider a fantastic core w/ Weems (MVC player of the year candidate) leading the way. They're big inside, the top 6 or 7 players are either juniors or seniors with a few of those transferring in last year. Now they all have a few years under their feet and the defense should improve. Definately my valley sleeper, and the home court should come back into play this year as well.

Arkansas State returns just about everyone who saw minutes on the court as freshman last year, and will have some nice spots in Sun Belt play to back as a slight home pup, but playing in the Sun Belt and going into a Valley arena are a bit different.

Don't get me wrong, Missouri State is not comparable to a top tier team, but with the offensive talent they have, they'll be able to put up points, and at the same time, probably turn in some better defensive statistics than last year.

GL
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:


Missouri State, as far as offensive talent in the Valley, should have the what I would consider a fantastic core w/ Weems (MVC player of the year candidate) leading the way. They're big inside, the top 6 or 7 players are either juniors or seniors with a few of those transferring in last year. Now they all have a few years under their feet and the defense should improve. Definately my valley sleeper, and the home court should come back into play this year as well.

Arkansas State returns just about everyone who saw minutes on the court as freshman last year, and will have some nice spots in Sun Belt play to back as a slight home pup, but playing in the Sun Belt and going into a Valley arena are a bit different.

Don't get me wrong, Missouri State is not comparable to a top tier team, but with the offensive talent they have, they'll be able to put up points, and at the same time, probably turn in some better defensive statistics than last year.

GL


Sounds good, any thoughts on Wyoming and No. Colorado?
 
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Posted: #61
Florida
 
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Posted: #62
yeah. Louisville line is fishy.. i would say.. however butler made lots of name for them last year.

I think Jennings will dominate howard. and if I get a nice game out of preston knowles, this game shouldnt be close.

good luck again
 
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Posted: #63
I don't see much fishy with the Louisville line at all, in fact we have a great spot where the #18 ranked team in the country is an dog to the unranked team
 
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Posted: #64
great job neil, think it'll be a good year for Tech as Pat is fighting for his job, but UNT has done very well against BCS competition lately
 
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Posted: #65
Thanks Nropp11,   tailed on N texas ,  thank you very much.

Have a great season!!!

watching you n kineprofessor all season long

ps:  remember kingcappers???

  nropp11
 
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Posted: #66
 
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Posted: #67
great job..!!
 
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Posted: #68
 
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Posted: #69
nice nite 

louie dominated as well 
 
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Posted: #70
11/16 Results: Really disappointed I didn’t get a chunk of action on the high-scoring 89 point affair between Hampton and Winthrop. Fantastic defense, little offense. My mistake. Another mistake was Florida. Thad Motta is a genius and Sullinger is a beast. North Texas was able to force overtime for a big win, and Boston gets to face Villanova, which is a dream for Boston’s coach. Other items to note and store: Missouri State offense is legit. Rhode Island now has 4 halves of basketball with scores of 36 and 39 on Pitt, and 49 and 43 on Brown.  They now play COC on Friday I believe who has halves of 37,37,52,41,28 and 55. Will we see a total in the 160’s? Butler misses Gordon Hayward. A lot. LSU hadn’t lost an in-state conference game in 82 games. Time to start a new streak (Nicholls State). Chalk up another out of conference victory for the SOCON, this time at Depaul. This conference is DEEP, for the third time. Love the SOCON this year. 

Sides: 6-2, +4.80
Totals: 0-1, -1.10
DNP: 3-2


11/17 Notes: I am not a big fan of the IVY league as I try to avoid at all costs but the travel situation for St. John’s had me take a deeper look. Columbia still matches up horribly here. I believe they were the only team in the nation last year to shoot below 44% on two-pointers, which is the basis of their offense after losing some decent three-point shooters to graduation. The travel coming home isn’t as tough mentally as travelling on the road for two straight. It’s a nice situational spot for Columbia, but that’s about all it is as I believe matchups, even on jet-lag, prevail here. Columbia lost by 11 at LaSalle and have failed to come even anywhere remotely close to a BCS conference squad on the road in the last five years. This is mid-tier Big East versus cellar IVY. No thanks. Was hoping for a smaller # on Ball State, but I suppose the -5 is right there. Ball State returns everyone from a team that had a 2 game lead in the MAC with three games remaining last year and just completely fell apart. Return the freshman of the year in Jarrod Jones, and a junior PG with more experience than anyone on Indiana State’s roster. And, Indiana State don’t have a PG after the loss of Marshall who handled the ball more than any player on their roster last year. This is West Division of MAC champ (my guess) versus cellar MVC. This is the third straight roady for Indiana State as well, faltering at Loyola CHI and Eastern Kentucky (both of whom I would rank as lessers compared to Ball State). You have to be able to handle the ball going up against a defensive squad in Ball State, and I see nothing on the roster of Indiana State that leads me to believe they’ll be able to accomplish that feat, in their 4th game in 6 days. Ball State won this game on the road last year by 5, and that was with the departed Marshall handling the ball for 33 minutes. To add a bit more, to take pressure of the ball handling, Indiana State has tried to get up and down and develop a fast break offense to hide the fact that they can’t handle the ball in the halfcourt... 
 
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...Ball State’s pace and tempo won’t allow this to happen. One more, Ball State bested Eastern Illinois by 30, who is a much more experienced and talented team than Eastern Kentucky, who beat Indiana State. He said, She said. Score comparing. Pointless at best, but it looks good on paper. I need to see a bit more on Creighton before I take a look. My gut tells me they’ll struggle to find an identity early with a new coach who has an entirely different coaching philosophy than what the kids were use to with Altman. Altman was sub-sub-sub and keep kids fresh. McDermott is stick to your top 6 and gut it out. They return enough to be a force in the Valley, but I wouldn’t put them on the same level as a few top teams. Probably some good situational spots down the road, but not early. I have no trust in Lafayette as I have mentioned before as they have lost a pair of players that complemented each other on the floor so well in Gradnigo and Johnson. They have yet to face a team that plays defense as their first two games hit 168 and 157, so with Valley principles applied to this game, I would suspect their offense to take a tumultuous DIVE. Brian Wardle, head coach at UW Green Bay averaged 19 points a game at Marquette a few years back. Nice angle here coming back to Marquette but two things with his squad seem to stick out that may work in the Horizon against lesser competition, but they sure aren’t going to help early in the year against a Big East foe: 1) The guards are tiny. 2) The posts have no experience. However, Marquette lacks size as well. Decent matchup on paper, but strength should prevail. Since being a dominant player in the valley a few years back, Drake’s luck has took a turn for the worse. This is a team that returns less than 60% of their scoring and minutes from last year, most notably Josh Young. They bring some bigs back who are fantastic shot-blockers and rebounders but their offense is lacking to say the least. On the other side, Iowa State brought in Fred Hoiberg to try and solve a string of cellar dwelling in the Big 12. I don’t expect that to change, but he has brought one important thing to the table, and that is defense. Both of their games this year have seen the opponents shoot a combined 28% scoring 22 and 20 in the first half of ballgames. Cross off the second halves as both games were out of control. I expect this game to be somewhat close at the intermission, leading me to believe that defense will stand tall in the 2H of the ballgame as well. These two teams played each other last year, and yes, they hit 160. However, both teams hit 24 of 45 shots from behind the arc, and both teams shot extremely well from inside the arc (52%). Not this year, there isn’t enough offense to go around and coaching changes have the focus on defense. This is also a rivalry game. More incentive for defense. I have no interest in Houston this early in the season as they lost Aubrey Coleman who did EVERYTHING for that squad last year, including beating UTEP twice (only team in C-USA to do it even once), and winning four games in four days in the conference tournament. Add in the coaching change and they’re a big turnoff. No interest in La. Tech as well as evidenced in one of my early posts I believe. Boggie Yates, all-time leading scorer at MTSTU is gone along with a few more seniors that shared the Sun Belt title last year. MTSTU also playing with revenge of a 1-point loss at UAB last year. Still, too much turnover to factor in and I feel UAB is the inferior squad. Should be a defensive battle, think UAB’s offense is a tad bit better with a much better backcourt. Guards win games, especially road ones. Loyola Marymount returns just about everyone from a decent squad as they travel to Bradley. Bradley is playing back-to-back here, and had NIU somehow pulled off a victory last night, I would have had even more value on Bradley here and pounced. They return the MWC top scoring threesome, and the home court is a definite factor in their ballgames. Loyola’s got some injury concerns. Take note of that. Utah State and BYU are both teams that will make the NCAA tournament later in the year, and this is obviously the game of the night in my opinion. Both stacked with talent.  UW Milwaukee offense was HORRENDOUS last year and they lost three top scorers. However, they still shot a ton of three’s and it’s tricky betting on teams that do such a thing. Niagara returns no one worth even looking at this game. If I had any interest in IVY League games, I would take a look at going against Penn tonight with the size that Manhattan brings to the court. Murray State returns 75% of it’s output from a team that last year beat Vanderbilt in the tourney (who was a 4 seed) and came within a bucket of beating Butler who played for the national title. Interesting matchup versus an SEC team, I’ll watch and enjoy. No read on Illinois State this early but they’re looking to run run run and run some more. Tennessee State defense is nothing special, but unknown offense keeps me off the total going over.

Interested in a line for Missouri State/Tennessee as Missouri State I think has the ability to beat full-court pressure, they’ve beated top 25 teams four of their last five games, and Tennessee thoroughly sucked against physical slow tempo squads last year (for reference check results on Depaul, Purdue, USC, Georgia, LSU, and Michigan State). Tennessee 4-7 versus the valley lifetime. Hoping for +11 to +13 range, but I have a feeling I’m being greedy. Will wait for Bradley as well, -3 is probably being greedy there too.

Bets
Ball State -5 (1 Unit)
Drake/Iowa State Under (1 Unit)

DNP: UAB -2.5

GL
 
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Posted: #72
that ISU/Drake Under is lined 134.5 by the way.

GL
 
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Posted: #73
GL   Nropp11,

That it for todays card???

should I check back later ??
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by NEO - THE ONE:

GL   Nropp11,

That it for todays card???

should I check back later ??

still waiting on lines for Missouri State and Bradley.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Nropp11,

the most impressive thing you do , besides the great write-ups and analysis,  is limiting your plays!!!

Their are other good cappers on this site but their personal style is to play many games, add plays etc...

As most here know, it is hard to avoid the ACTION temptation and I
think folks here need to really appreciate your discipline.


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